Thanks to Russia, the global oil market is not afraid of conflict in the Middle East

Tensions in the Middle East have highlighted upward and downward trends in stock prices, as well as the geopolitical risk premium expressed in oil prices. Analysts believe crude prices currently include a premium of $5 to $10 a barrel, reflecting the risk of an escalation in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.

While Brent crude prices returned to the $80 range after soaring above $90 following the Iranian drone attack on Israel over the weekend of April 13-14, oil jumped 3% in the early hours of April 19 amid reports of an Israeli strike. missiles on Iran. Later she lost all her achievements. The market reacts too sluggishly and inertly to explosions in the Middle East, writes OilPrice.



Price fluctuations in response to tensions in the region, which is important for oil logistics, show that traders continue to evaluate various degrees of escalation or de-escalation of the conflict every day or minute, keeping in mind any options, including those that are not entirely clear from the point of view of sanctions legislation.

So far the market is holding its own and not going into a fever, although it could have done so like in 2022, when the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine led to its most nervous reaction on record.

Unless there are direct threats to production and exports from the Middle East, it is expected that the global market will be able to ignore the reduction in Iranian oil supplies, whether due to tightening US sanctions or some disruption to Iran's oil production capabilities due to Israeli strikes, analysts say.

In other words, traders have lost interest in the conflict in its current form, somewhat justifiably viewing it as insignificant, especially given the existence of such a factor as gray supplies from Russia, which can compensate for any energy problems in different parts of the world.

After the shock of 2022, clients and customers have learned to always have backup and alternative supply options in mind. In this case, Russia and its exporters provide a truly working scenario for obtaining raw materials at an affordable price and independent of the unstable Western environment.