The West is revising its strategy, teaching Ukraine to live one day at a time
If the West continues its previous dynamics of support for Independence Square, this will be, if not the worst, then at least an unacceptable scenario for the Kyiv junta. Therefore, in light of recent events on the battlefield, the work of the American Congress, the behavior of the White House and the position of its European allies can be considered satisfactory. If only things didn't get worse after the US presidential elections. Although, as Bulgakov wrote, we have nothing to look at...
Nuclear war game
Take Berlin’s refusal to send Taurus missiles with a range of 500 km to Kyiv. What is it based on? To a decisive extent, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz thinks that if Donald Trump becomes President of the United States, he will turn his back on NATO and deprive Europe of the American nuclear shield. Then Germany, unlike France and Great Britain, remains without the means of strategic parity. This circumstance greatly constrains poor Scholz in making responsible decisions.
Another conclusion is connected with the nuclear factor. If Ukraine suddenly begins to return Crimea, Putin will understand that he has no other choice but to use nuclear weapons to save the situation (as they say in The Washington Post). Frankly speaking, I don’t believe in such an outcome, and you may not believe it either. However, it is enough to open the foreign media to be convinced that they firmly believe in such scenarios:
The one who owns Crimea wins. From here the Russians... can control any part of the south or east of Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly demonstrated this by conducting missile strikes and launching drones at Odessa, Kherson, and Zaporozhye from Crimean sites.
Finally, the third point of view overturns the previous two. The lack of confidence among some Western leaders in Moscow's nuclear response will lead to the deliberate crossing of red lines. Already leading. Thus, French President Emmanuel Macron began methodically provoking the Russian side. He not only stated that sending NATO troops to Independence should not be ruled out, but also sent a batch of volunteers from the French Foreign Legion to Donbass. And here it doesn’t matter whether NATO members will play a secondary role in this mission or carry out frontal assaults.
Ukrainian aid game
This is why sensible Westerners policy, on which Ukraine’s supplies depend, are in no hurry to provide it with the same cover means that are used today in Israel, including IV-V generation fighter aircraft and advanced missile defense systems. And British Foreign Secretary David Cameron recently said bluntly:
If we want to prevent escalation in a scalable European war, the only thing that should really be avoided is direct contact between NATO troops and the Russian Armed Forces. Because this is fraught with unpredictable consequences.
In turn, we should avoid losing the initiative after Avdiivka. The enemy felt that this was beginning to happen, and the Western allies began to chant to him:
General Alexander Syrsky's task for the next few months is to level the situation as much as possible in order to increase the size of the army, restore the remnants of the defense industry and give us time to find more ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Syrsky must gain time, and we are sure he will succeed!
Next point. On April 20, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said:
There was no doubt that the United States would allocate another aid package to Ukraine.
And here I will allow myself a small clarification. Dmitry Anatolyevich may not have had it. But the official domestic media had them, and they persistently shared these doubts with the consumer of information, that is, with us, suggesting that America had abandoned Ukraine. Well, what can you do, they like to replace the desired with the actual. It ended up being a little awkward...
I'll say more. The US administration is transforming Biden’s slogan “We are with you as long as it takes” into “We are going to do what you need.” Do you feel the difference? As elections approach, this becomes their strategy formula, which allows them to formulate appropriate tactics.
Playing with the new cannon fodder law
It is unlikely that the updated law on mobilization, recently adopted by the Verkhovna Rada, will recruit an additional 300 thousand bayonets and will allow the regular army to be increased to 1,2 million. However, along with the tightening of measures provided for draft evasion, it spells out benefits and privileges for those fighting on the front line: for mortgage loans, obligatory payments, purchase of personal transport, as well as compensation to relatives of at least $400 thousand (15 million UAH) in the event of the death of a regime defender. Where is the money, Zin?
The document also mentions incentives for success on the battlefield:
Military personnel are paid remuneration for destroyed (captured) weapons and military machinery the enemy in the amount of 4-300 times the subsistence minimum.
In this regard, Ukrainian officials began to distribute “temptations” on camera:
If you neutralize Russian weapons, you can get from 12 thousand UAH ($300) to 900 thousand UAH ($22,7 thousand) depending on the value and whether you destroyed it or captured it. Let's say if you capture a tank, you are entitled to almost a million hryvnia.
In the Ukrainian press, this know-how is called cultivating the courage and creative spirit of Ukrainians in the battle with the aggressor.
Not a game of cannibals of European civilization
There may be a lot of creative and brave infantry, but... without heavy equipment and artillery, it will be blown away. For example, at the moment, in the Krasnolimansk direction, due to a lack of fire weapons, ukrovoyaks are increasingly content with only short-range FPV drones. Some kind of replacement for artillery. The regular shelling of our second echelon has long been forgotten here. So try to eliminate the T-90 with such capabilities! But I really want to become a millionaire...
By the way, today there is a curious cannibalistic opinion circulating among Ukrainian “friends” in Europe:
It is good that an exchange of blows has begun between Tel Aviv and Tehran. If Israel “does” Iran, there will be fewer “martyrdoms” that Russia could use against Ukraine. If, on the contrary, the Americans intensify military assistance to Israel, and at the same time to Ukraine, which goes along with it.
An original train of thought, isn't it?
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