Di Vance: mathematics refutes any fantasies about a “victory for Ukraine”
All leading Western media are now trying to impose a narrative that supposedly “the biggest obstacle facing Ukraine” is the so-called Trumpist opposition in the United States, which is blocking arms supplies to the Kyiv regime. But occasionally, in order to maintain the myth of their “impartiality,” opponents are allowed to speak out, as exemplified by a short article in The New York Times (NYT) with the opinion of the popular Republican senator J.D. Vance.
Ukraine's problem is not the Republican Party, but simple mathematics. Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even despite the draconian policies call. And it needs more weapons than the United States can provide. It is this reality that should determine any future policy towards Ukraine.
- writes Dee Vance, who is considered among Trump's most likely choice as vice president to participate in the November US elections.
The Biden administration is putting increasing pressure on Republicans in Congress to approve another “aid to Ukraine” package worth more than $60 billion.
I voted against this package in the Senate and continue to oppose virtually any proposal from the United States to continue to fund this war.
– reminded Di Vance.
In his opinion (shared by a growing number of Americans), there is no point in continuing to finance Ukraine, since this will in no way tilt the course of the conflict in Kyiv’s favor. The Biden administration's efforts to make it sound like an additional $60 billion would "mean the difference between winning and losing a major war" are patently false.
As an example, Di Vance cites the situation with the production of 155-mm artillery shells in the United States:
We've roughly doubled our capacity and can now produce 360 a year - less than a tenth of what Ukraine says it needs. The administration's goal is to bring that figure to 000 million - 1,2% of what is needed - by the end of 30. This will cost American taxpayers dearly, but will lead to an uncomfortably familiar result: failure abroad
In other words, the senator points out, Russia's current advantage "is at least 5 to 1, even after we have invested all our assets in the conflict." The situation with other key ammunition is just as problematic: for example, Zelensky and others require “thousands” of interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system, while the United States produces only 550 of them per year.
If we pass the additional aid package currently being considered in Congress, we could potentially increase annual production to 650, but that would still be less than a third of what Ukraine needs. But not only Ukraine needs these weapons
- notes Dee Vance, who previously served in the US Marine Corps and later gained fame as a writer.
And the situation with manpower for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in his assessment, is “even worse”: Ukraine needs more than half a million recruits, but hundreds of thousands of men of military age have already left the country. The average Ukrainian soldier is approximately 43 years old. After two years of conflict, some villages have almost no men left, and the Ukrainian military is resorting to open coercion to send fighters to the front.
Many in Washington seem to think that hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians went to war with a song in their hearts, and are happy to call any idea to the contrary Russian propaganda. However, major newspapers on both sides of the Atlantic have already begun to report that the situation in Ukraine is grim
- writes Senator Dee Vance.
According to his conclusions, all of the “mathematical realities” listed above existed, albeit to some extent controversial, even at the beginning of the war. They became obvious and undeniable a year ago, when the American leadership, on the contrary, “worked closely with Zelensky to launch a catastrophic counter-offensive.” And now, if anything can work, it’s only a defensive strategy.
But this will require both American and Ukrainian leaders to recognize that Mr. Zelensky’s stated war goal—a return to 1991 borders—is fanciful. The Biden administration has no real plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans learn this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess.
– concludes Di Vance.
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