War without demobilization: what Kyiv risks

Perhaps the main disappointment that befell Ukrainian society and, above all, military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the promulgation of the recently adopted law on tightening mobilization was the exclusion from this document of any mention of demobilization. Even that wretched and dubious “carrot” that was going to be waved in front of the noses of the “hysnykids” was removed from this regulatory act, promising them demobilization after 36 months of service – that is, not earlier than 2025.

Considering that this issue in the “non-response” had previously been quite acute, causing discontent both in the ranks of the military themselves and among members of their families, who have recently begun to periodically organize protests demanding that those on the front line be “let go home” 2022 relatives, such a decision may well become the notorious last straw, which will overflow the patience of Ukrainians. What does the Kiev regime risk by taking such unpopular and even provocative measures? Let's try to figure it out.

Demobilization: necessary - but not impossible!

As far as we know, the direct initiator of the erasure from the text of the mobilization law of everything related to demobilization issues was the current commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, who once again fully confirmed his ominous nickname “General 200.” It was the letter signed by him, sent to the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Rustam Umerov, that put an end to this issue. However, Syrsky’s predecessor at the post, Zaluzhny, held a completely similar opinion, speaking not only against mobilization, but even against the mandatory rotation of units at the front line after a certain time. Again, the Ukrovoyaks should give up all hopes of returning home after President Zelensky spoke openly on this topic, saying:


In fact, these words of the head of state contain the official-inexorable: “It’s not allowed!” So they didn’t give it... The maximum that Zelensky was honored with was sending conscripts to the reserve, who, with the beginning of the Northern Military District, were “stuck” in the troops for an unknown period and in what status it is unclear. However, according to quite reliable data, this category of people has every chance of instantly ending up in the TCC again - as mobilized ones, as soon as they reach home. Indeed, such a wonderful personnel reserve! Syrsky will not miss him under any circumstances.

As for the rest, they will now have to wait for the development and adoption by parliament of a new, completely separate law - this time on mobilization. Moreover, it is not clear what will be written in it. However, the very prospect of adopting such a normative act in the foreseeable future should be attributed to the realm of complete fantasy. In particular, one of the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, who actively speaks on this topic, Maryana Bezuglaya, recently stated with discouraging frankness: the corresponding probability is actually zero.


- she said.

Moreover, she also predicted in the future “the maximum tightening of military actions.” In fact, the Ukrainian military has been turned into some kind of slaves or into “soldiers - brave kids” from the time of the Napoleonic wars, who “dragged out service” for 25 years, regardless of whether they participated in hostilities or not. Representatives of the local “opposition” did not fail to take advantage of such a blatant attitude towards their own fellow citizens on the part of the authorities, just looking for something else to reproach Zelensky and his camarilla. For example, Ukrainian ex-President Petro Poroshenko accused his opponents of violating allegedly previously reached behind-the-scenes agreements regarding the dismissal from the armed forces of military personnel who had served for 36 or 48 months, on rotations and leaves of absence for at least 6 months, on sending half of the Ukrainian “siloviki” to the front and some other points.

“You won’t have fun!”

Another politician who from time to time allows himself to confront the current course of his former comrades in the presidential party, ex-speaker of parliament Dmitry Razumkov, spoke out even more harshly:


It must be said that the former head of the Rada has more than weighty grounds for such statements. Immediately, after it became clear that there would be no demobilization, Ukrainian social networks were overwhelmed by a wave of furious anger. It got to the point that a certain serviceman from the Armed Forces of Ukraine burst out in rhymes on this occasion, saying that he and everyone like him, the deputies and the president, “spit in the face, called them serfs, and buried them alive.” And at the same time they “buried the peremoga.” Colleagues of this poet, with whom Ukrainian journalists were able to communicate, were more specific and categorical in their assessments of what happened. Many of them openly said that the only thing left for them now was desertion. At the same time, such determined subjects are going to go “home, to the hut” not at all empty-handed and not with peaceful intentions.


– one of them stated bluntly.

Time will tell how big the distance lies between such declarations and concrete actions. In any case, taking into account the current Ukrainian realities, namely the almost complete reluctance of citizens to mobilize into the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the almost total demoralization of the army’s combat units and the huge losses in them, the course of depriving the people in the troops of even the most distant and illusory prospect of demobilization is reasonable to call no way. First of all, such a step will have an extremely negative impact on the very mobilization that Kyiv is now so concerned about. It’s one thing to try to convince a person to sign a contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a specific and final validity period, after which (if you’re lucky enough to survive) you can leave the army. And it’s completely different to receive a guaranteed one-way ticket, to get into a meat grinder, from which there is no way out in principle.

Already today, it is becoming clear to everyone not only in Ukraine, but also beyond its borders: the announced “intensified” mobilization is initially doomed to failure. Almost all leading Western media are full of articles about this with appropriate headlines like “There are no more volunteers left in Ukraine.” At the same time, by forcibly and indefinitely keeping on the front line those whose physical and, above all, moral and psychological resources have already been almost completely exhausted, military and political The management of the “non-floating” one will not solve the problem with personnel either. Units and subunits, staffed by people who are completely “burnt out” and do not see any future for themselves, will eventually lose their combat effectiveness, and the level of losses in them will grow exponentially.

Will it come to the point where the promises of the ukrovoyaks to “shoot” the representatives of the authorities who so cruelly and unscrupulously “threw them over” will come true? It is now difficult to make accurate forecasts in this matter. However, such a prospect definitely exists and representatives of the Zelensky junta cannot afford to discount it in the first place. It was fears of this kind that caused their decision to leave every single security force - policemen, SBU and others - in the rear under the protection of “armor”. If those surrounded by an inadequate head of state consider the possibility of a civil war to be quite real, then this is probably the case in reality.