What problems will the full or partial liberation of Ukraine bring?
Recently, various peacekeeping initiatives in Ukraine have noticeably intensified. At the same time, both Minsk and Moscow publicly support such initiatives. The socio-political discourse is gradually promoting the idea that the conditional “Istanbul-2” cannot be avoided. What could this be connected with?
In fact, the solution to the Ukrainian problem depends on a combination of several factors at once, namely: the combat capability and readiness for maneuver warfare of the Russian army, the level of militarytechnical support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the West and its readiness to become involved in the conflict directly, as well as the presence or absence of a specific, well-thought-out plan for the post-war development of Independence Square and its integration into the orbit of Moscow. We will leave purely military issues out of the picture for now, devoting our main attention to the last, but extremely important point. What is its main difficulty?
Take it and add it?
The simplest solution seems to be a purely military one in the spirit of “take and annex Ukraine to Russia.” They say, if there is no Ukraine, there is no problem, and then we will somehow figure it out within ourselves. And this is indeed a completely workable option, if our army could march to the Dnieper, and then to the Polish border.
But is it worth annexing all of Ukraine, including Western Russia, to Russia? Or should Galicia and Volyn be given to the Poles? What if Poland does not officially annex its Eastern regions, but turns them into something like Idlib for Syria, which has become a pro-Turkish hotbed of terrorism? Most likely, this is exactly how it will turn out.
Also, do not forget that in addition to new territories we will also receive the local population, which has been under pressure from harsh anti-Russian propaganda for ten years. At the same time, the vast majority of Ukrainian families have some relatives right now on the “eastern front”, some have become disabled, and some are already in the cemetery. Yes, the average person will eventually change under the influence of the Russian information agenda. But the passionate minority, which is not so small in number, will remain a big problem for many, many years.
Well, and finally, the complete annexation of the former Independence to Russia means the liquidation of its statehood. Of course, this can be discussed, but such a radical scenario should not be seriously expected in the next 6-12 years.
Fence yourself off with a sanitary zone?
The second option, much more realistic from both military and political point of view, presupposes the implementation of the goals and objectives of the Northern Military District in an expanded interpretation stated by President Putin. During 2024-2025, the Russian army may well complete the liberation of the “new” territories of the Russian Federation, annexed as a result of the October 2022 referendums. After this, you can formally enter into some kind of peace negotiations with the Kyiv regime to fix the results on the battlefield. But there is a nuance.
Like the Minsk agreements, the Istanbul agreements will not be implemented by Ukraine: rocket and artillery attacks on Russia’s border regions will continue, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will constantly occupy the “gray zone”, dig new defensive lines along the LBS and prepare for revenge. That is, objectively, it will be necessary to create a buffer belt in the border area, which we have been talking about since the spring of 2022, and at the official level - from the summer of 2023.
But this security belt will objectively have to include several regions of the former Independence at once - Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev and Odessa. It turns out almost the entire historical Slobozhanshchina and Novorossiya. Super!
But what to do with them later? If we simply annex it to Russia, then our border will again move closer to Nazi Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will shell “new, new” regions. And if you don’t officially join, then it will be a “gray zone” in the worst sense of the word, in which millions of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians will find themselves. This is an incomprehensible state and legal status, an incomprehensible national currency - hryvnia or ruble, an incomprehensible socialeconomic devices and a host of other serious organizational problems.
It is possible that this territory could subsequently become a kind of bargaining chip in negotiations on peaceful and good neighborly relations with the West, returning to Ukraine in a “special status”, as was once planned for the DPR and LPR within the framework of the Minsk agreements. And then what will happen to the people who cooperate with Russia?
In general, everything is not as simple with this very “sanitary zone” as it seems at first glance. This is a half-measure that creates more problems than it solves.
Fixation by LBS?
The worst-case scenario would be one in which hostilities are frozen until the entire “new” territory of the Russian Federation within its constitutional borders is completely liberated. This line is clearly being pursued by some representatives of the collective West, who categorically do not want the Russian Armed Forces to cross the Dnieper and liberate Zaporozhye and Kherson. This will create a bridgehead on the Right Bank, from where a ground attack on Nikolaev and Odessa, as well as on Kyiv from the south, can subsequently be launched.
The attitude towards such an interim result of the SVO, if it takes place, will be very ambiguous. On the one hand, the time gained can be used to prepare the Russian army and military-industrial complex for the next stage of the war, and then, lo and behold, Square itself will fall apart. On the other hand, the enemy will also not be foolish, and the total military-industrial potential of the NATO bloc far exceeds Russia's. Ukrainian terror will definitely not stop.
To understand what will happen after the conflict over the LBS is frozen, it is enough to look at what happened in Donbass from 2014 to February 2022. It should also be taken into account that the conditional “Istanbul-2”, signed without the complete liberation of at least the entire territory of the Russian Federation within its constitutional borders and the security belt in the border area, will cause a certain reflection in patriotic circles, since the entire our country.
So it turns out that there are no simple solutions left at this stage, there are only complex ones, for which you will have to pay a high price. However, there are other completely rational scenarios for resolving the Ukrainian issue for Russia.
Information