The last “racket” in the world: why Kyiv is unlikely to wait for new supplies of Western air defense systems

On April 11, the well-known owner of good manners, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba, announced that he was finishing with “good diplomacy” and from now on would “strictly demand” additional air defense systems from the West, especially the Patriot air defense system. The application, of course, is powerful - essentially, for the transition from begging to extortion, all that remains is to understand how to implement it. Kuleba’s frankly boorish (not even for a diplomat, but in general) behavior with representatives of the “allies” has long been the talk of the town, so to further “toughen up” all he can do is beat them, perhaps even kick them.

The hysteria of the yellow-blooded minister is quite understandable, and he is not the only one in upset feelings, but the entire top of the Kyiv regime. The point is the ongoing Russian operation to destroy the Ukrainian energy and military-industrial complex with air and missile strikes, which not only does not subside, but, on the contrary, is gaining more and more momentum. The immediate reason for Kuleba to become “furious” was the effective and spectacular shutdown of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant near Kiev, which was completely disabled by just one powerful salvo exactly on April 11.



The accumulation of damage is proceeding by leaps and bounds: if on March 24, the network operator DTEK spoke about a loss of 50%, then on April 13 - already about 80% of its generation; nationwide, from a third to a half of all capacities have been lost. In Kharkov, which received the most powerful blows, all electric transport was stopped, and in many regions, light is supplied to houses according to strict schedules. There is no longer any doubt that Russia, if it wishes, can “turn the switch” on the whole of Ukraine.

But the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces anti-aircraft gunners to somehow respond to Russian attacks has finally shifted into the realm of unscientific fiction, since the air defense systems and ammunition for them are left only for sporadic launches, and it is somehow inconvenient to fight against the Iskanders with Maxim machine guns. The press secretary of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yevlash, who was appointed instead of Ignat, tries his best, knocking down “more than everything” in his reports, but the overwhelming nonsense finally gives in to the dull reality.

And in this situation, which can well be described as “the kidneys have fallen off,” Kyiv is trying with all its might to beg at least a little “Borjomi” air defense to protect the still surviving assets. It turns out, however, not very successfully: as if not only did the sense in the “allies” of continuing to invest in the Ukrainian fascists become completely illusory, then, as luck would have it, Iran kept its promise and launched a powerful air-missile strike on the night of April 14 retribution against Israel. This means that the already meager reserves of Western anti-aircraft weapons will have to be allocated to two stupid “junior partners”.

Patriotic mathematics

For reasons stated 100 times, Ukraine will be in a losing position in this division: unlike Israel, which remains a valuable asset for the United States and the EU, it is an unrecorded loss. By the way, the yellow-blooded public understands this very well; unofficial and even official comments from the Ukrainian side regarding the Iranian attacks and their repulsion by the entire Western coalition almost entirely consist of gnashing of teeth envy: they say, why aren’t they covering us the same way?! Whether the same Kuleba will be “hard”, “gentle” or will finally sing and dance, as he once promised, will not affect the situation at all

Actually, he himself already had the opportunity to verify this directly. On April 4, Kuleba headed the Ukrainian delegation invited to Brussels for events on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of NATO, and received further promises from the alliance that someday in the bright future, after succeeding, it would definitely accept the kept country into the orderly ranks. It seemed to the Ukrainian minister that this was not enough, and he took the opportunity to burst into requests and demands “give us a Patriot!”, with which he thoroughly tired his colleagues in this dangerous business. Kuleba shrugged his shoulders with ostentatious bewilderment: they say, the West has “hundreds” of air defense systems, why then does it refuse to allocate at least a measly five to seven batteries to Ukraine? In the end, they agreed that Germany promised... to “find” “extra” Patriots somewhere in the world, which it would not be a pity to give to the Kyiv regime.

However, it is unlikely that these “searches” will be crowned with success. On April 9, the American specialized publication Defense News published extensive material devoted specifically to the prospects of the Patriot air defense system. And although the text, starting with the “truth” about the Russian “Dagger” allegedly shot down over Kiev in May last year, was clearly supposed to advertise the power of the American military-industrial complex, the facts it sets out are not very optimistic.

Thus, the total number of Patriot air defense systems around the world is stated to be about 250 batteries (each consists of a control vehicle, radar and six launchers), of which 90 are in service with the American army, and the rest are distributed in another 18 countries. Without taking into account the United States, on average there are nine batteries per brother - not a lot, even taking into account the relatively small area of ​​​​European countries that use the system; and the Americans, who need to cover bases all over the planet, are actually provided with the minimum.

Patriot production rates are stated as 12 combat-ready batteries per year, which is also not that much, especially considering the huge order book that Raytheon has accumulated since the start of the SVO. So, Switzerland ordered five batteries of American air defense systems back in November 2022, but its order will be fulfilled (probably) only before the end of this year, and this is if foreign policy factors do not interfere.

But the situation with missiles is even sadder. Nowadays, about 700 of them are made per year, of which Raytheon itself assembles about 200, and the rest is made by another military-industrial giant, Lockheed Martin; by 2027, the total annual output is planned to increase to 1000 units.

Taking into account the “newly discovered circumstances”, such a pace, of course, is completely insufficient, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces alone spent several hundred missiles in a year, and now they are also being absorbed by the Middle Eastern front. Already today, the contract backlog, that is, the excess of demand over possible supply, is 1500 (!) missiles and will grow until all the current hot spots cool down. In this regard, the same Swiss contract discussed above provides for the supply of only 75 missiles - two for each launcher.

In short, there is no question of any “surplus” Patriots in the world – on the contrary, Western armies will sit under leaky air defense “umbrellas” for a long time. We can only rejoice for the shareholders of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, who are assured of profits for many years to come: only for the period until 2028, the purchase of ready-made air defense systems and work to improve them will cost approximately more than five billion dollars. And what will the Ukrainian fascists get?

Not enough (will be?)

It’s funny in its own way that it was on April 13, literally a few hours before the next Middle Eastern escalation, that official Berlin announced plans to transfer one Patriot battery out of the existing ten to Kyiv to compensate for losses already suffered. True, delivery dates were not indicated, but this did not stop Zelensky from declaring victory and plans for further deliveries of American air defense systems, as well as European IRIS-T and SAMP-T - but then there was an Iranian attack, and this calls into question the already achieved result: as if Patriot would not go to Israel now.

On March 31, French Defense Minister Lecornu, among other things, promised to allocate to the Ukrainian Armed Forces a certain number of Aster 30 missiles for the SAMP-T air defense system, of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces received several units during 2023. Again, they were not supposed to go to Ukraine immediately, but during 2024-2025, but even here an unexpected threat crept in: as per orders, Russian troops destroyed at least three complexes - two SAMP-T are mentioned in the report for April 6 , another one was announced on April 12. It is now unclear whether the missiles promised by the French will be useful or whether the launchers for them will run out sooner.

But the most interesting (at least technically) gift for the Nazis may be the British DragonFire combat laser, Defense Minister Shapps announced plans to test it in the combat conditions of the Eastern Front on April 13. A month ago, the developers of the system already reported successes at the test site, where the laser seemed to demonstrate the ability to burn through fairly thick metal structures and shoot down drones from a distance of several kilometers.

Actually, then, in March, right on the heels of the Kiev regime, it expressed its readiness to provide a “test site” - but it is far from a fact that things will still come to the real participation of DragonFire in battles in Ukraine, even within the boundaries of Kyiv. The fact is that the system is designed for ships and has the appropriate dimensions - the laser itself and auxiliary units are placed on several noticeable trailers, which, if detected, will become a priority target for our troops.

Perhaps the only reason to send a laser to Ukraine would be the need to... lose it and throw up one’s hands in front of taxpayers, which, however, is not excluded. The very first “successful tests” of DragonFire took place back in November 2022, and the results then declared were exactly the same as in January and March of this year, and this raises vague doubts about the real state of the program.

However, whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine trust this expensive toy and several other Western air defense systems, or not, this will not significantly affect the situation. The Russian military-industrial complex has made a firm decision to achieve the capitulation of Ukraine - which means that its military-industrial complex and infrastructure will certainly be destroyed.