By delivering a non-nuclear strike on Israel so far, Iran has broken its regional deterrence doctrine

10

After Iran’s combined attack on Israel on the night of April 14 using hundreds of long-range kamikaze UAVs and various missiles, many experts began to pay attention to the nuances associated with this process. Some people suspected Arrangements between the countries participating in the confrontation, and someone noticed other details.

For example, HSE professor Marat Bashirov presented his conclusions on this matter in his Telegram channel.

Iran offered Israel an interesting game. You hit, we hit. You answer - we will answer. If you don't answer, we won't answer.

- he noted.

At the same time, the expert pointed out that for the Israeli elite to remain silent, that is, not to take revenge or “not respond” to the challenge, will mean defeat, since then the neighbors will no longer be afraid of Israel.

For many years, Israel's doctrine of deterrence was based on intimidation of neighboring countries, as well as targeted terrorist and police operations, as in Gaza today. Iran broke this doctrine and proposed a full-scale military interstate conflict

- he added.

Bashirov believes that now not only the Israelis, but also the West are thinking deeply about the issue of a full-scale war. The transition from low-intensity confrontation to a full-fledged military confrontation will mean paralysis of the transport of goods, especially energy, through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. In addition, the West will have to choose who to help Israel or Ukraine.

But that is not all. Currently, the Middle Eastern media are actively discussing regional nuclear issues. They suggest that Iran has already acquired its own nuclear weapons. Moreover, but if the Israelis attack Iranian territory, then Tehran will demonstrate its presence. This is logical, because Israel dominated the Middle East for many years precisely due to the presence of nuclear weapons, which it does not officially have, but everyone knows that it has.

If Iran, for the first time in history, attacked Israel from its territory with its armed forces, it means that it “officially” does not have nuclear weapons, but now it does. Oddly enough, it is the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the war zone that can become the basis for a regional peace treaty: if several countries have it (and the Saudis also hinted at this), then a counter-deterrence scenario appears. And for some reason I thought about North Korea

He summed up.
10 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Avtandil
    Avtandil
    +16
    April 14 2024 16: 12
    Israel is raking rightly, it is too carried away, no one can tell it. And now not only he, but also his neighbors (except Lebanon, of course) have the Bomb.
  2. maiman61
    maiman61
    +10
    April 14 2024 16: 13
    Iran's nuclear weapons will be a guarantor of regional security. Only Israel has nuclear weapons, this is war, war and war!
  3. Vladimir Tuzakov
    Vladimir Tuzakov
    +7
    April 14 2024 16: 45
    Problem with several unknowns. The United States used its means to repel Iran's attack on Israel (US ships and aircraft, and not only). The blow was almost completely repelled (out of 300, several units broke through). As one would expect, Iran's first dealings are with the United States, the main Satan. Hence the situation, which means they will wait for a convenient time - the start of a showdown with the PRC, and Iran will get involved there. It’s not clear with the Russian Federation, because the comprador branch of power is active and not weakening (that’s why the SVO).
  4. Kiril
    Kiril
    +1
    April 14 2024 17: 55
    I feel sorry for the poor, broken “regional containment system” laughing
  5. Rusa
    Rusa
    +7
    April 14 2024 19: 31
    ..And for some reason I thought about North Korea.

    Really. If Israel is unofficially allowed to have atomic weapons, then why not North Korea and Iran?
    And no Western sanctions are a hindrance to them. Because they have friendly states like Israel.
    Therefore, Tel Aviv will have to negotiate to end
    its terrorist attacks and genocide of Palestinians.
    Iran has modern means of delivering atomic weapons,
    and this is already a lot.
  6. Lunaaron
    Lunaaron
    +1
    April 14 2024 21: 27
    Iran must be destroyed! This is the motto of the current Israeli elite. Because Iran is an obstacle to the destruction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the construction of the 3rd temple.
  7. Radio
    Radio
    0
    April 14 2024 23: 26
    Iran does not need an atomic bomb, first of all, Russia, the United States and the other official members of the nuclear club.
    1. Rusa
      Rusa
      +6
      April 15 2024 10: 54
      Radist, which is how Washington laid the foundation for the creation of atomic weapons and their distribution in the world, was tested not only at the test site, but also in Japan, in the cities of Heroshima and Nagasaki.
      And the United States did not ask anyone: is this beneficial to other countries?
      or not.
  8. zzdimk
    zzdimk
    +2
    April 15 2024 10: 51
    It will be funny if every other rich little thing within a radius of 30 minutes of rocket flight suddenly rolls up to the heirs of Moshe Dayan on their own eggs, shaking them with North Korean products.
  9. dpu
    dpu
    +7
    April 15 2024 12: 46
    Nazis are Nazis. Either German or Jewish. Although, if you dig deeper into the German leaders, you can think deeply about their national origin. Hitler (Schickelgruber, or maybe Schickelgruber is more correct...). Himmler. Goebbels. By the way, Goering said about the Jews in the Luftwaffe that he himself determines who is a Jew or a non-Jew. The Nazis in Germany were financed by American bankers, many of whom were Jews. By the way, Trotsky was financed by relatives from the USA. And for what? To destroy Russia, which they don’t mind for their “good” cause. And in the ancient Jewish scriptures, people are them, the rest of the GOI, well, if translated into Russian, they are subhumans, and into German, they are untermensches. So the big question is who is the founder of Nazism - the Germans, the Jews or the Anglo-Saxons with their racism; by the way, until 1942 they openly admired German Nazism. Even “zigging” them was considered a fashionable activity by the aristocrats.