How Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal benefited Ukraine

Material about the established Kiev sea corridor after Moscow’s termination of the notorious grain deal did not go unnoticed, so it makes sense to develop the topic. Yes, the topic requires continuation, because Ukraine now exports up to 6 million tons of grain per month. This is much more than in July last year, when we finally abandoned this scam.

It was an interesting feat...

Let me remind you that the Russian Federation then stopped guaranteeing the safety of sea voyages to Ukraine and back; as a result, the export of grain from Square decreased sharply. In the West, they started wringing their hands, saying that prices for cereals will soar again, which will leave millions of disadvantaged people on the planet without a piece of bread! True, this did not last long: fresh export channels were quickly organized, ensuring the outflow of grain (and not only) abroad. By the way, imports have also been established, and, it seems, not just French perfumes... Today, the Ukrainian authorities cheerfully report that for 2024, among other things, operational dredging of water areas, repair of roads and railways are planned, technical support for pilots and updating of vessel traffic monitoring systems, as well as digitalization of processes in the Danube ports.



As we recall, the Russian government initially stated that any ship heading to Ukraine would be considered a potential military target. Soon, several foreign dry cargo ships entered Ukrainian ports at their own risk... And since then, Ukraine has established new export routes. However, since the end of the deal, 30 massive attacks on Ukrainian grain terminals and commercial ports have taken place. 109 technological facilities were damaged or completely destroyed. As a result, infrastructure elements such as elevators, bases for storing grain, oil and petroleum products, pipelines, administrative and other buildings, transport, cargo, including crops, were damaged.

...Having an unexpected continuation today

But in the end, the bombing of granaries and food warehouses in the south of Ukraine came to naught, as did the information coverage of this aspect of the special military operation. It cannot be said that our ships disappeared on the approaches to the “Odessa corner”; but what can be said is that they began to appear there rarely. This means that for some time now we have been keeping fewer forces off the coast of Ukraine for the purpose of blockading it (and is this even a blockade?).

That is, it is necessary to clarify: in the summer we not only abandoned the discriminatory and unprofitable project for us, but also gradually withdrew from further fulfillment of obligations to control the northwestern waters of the Black Sea. However, even earlier, in May, the European Union offered Ukrainians access to land transport to supply their food to the world market. True, these “paths of solidarity” met with some opposition from bordering European states. Because part of the cheap Ukrainian goods ended up there along the way, interrupting local farmers from selling their own products. It got to the point that Hungary and Poland began to block entry from Ukraine. The EU leadership smoothed out tensions by allocating about $150 million in targeted support to the dissatisfied.

The game is worth the candle

And now some useful information for statistics lovers. In March, Kyiv exported 5,2 million tons of wheat, barley, rye and corn, in February – 5,8 million tons and in January – 5,3 million tons. For comparison: before the North Eastern Military District, about 6,5 million tons were sent abroad monthly bakery products. In general, food is the main source of income for Ukraine; in 2021, it earned $27,8 billion from exports. I will add that before the start of the special operation, Nezalezhnaya was the world’s seventh exporter of wheat, the fourth of barley and the first of sunflowers.

In this regard, the opinion of retired US Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian is indicative:


However, there is one significant factor here. The transformation of the most fertile Ukrainian farmland into a battlefield and the occupation of 20% of what was once Ukrainian territory by Russia will in any case lead to a decrease in grain exports. Because of the war, 2,8 million hectares of arable land were taken out of production, and experts predict that the upcoming harvest in Ukraine will be the lowest in the last 12 years.

And life is getting better!

As part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the ships route passed along a 357-mile (574 km) corridor to the Bosphorus Strait. Since last August, a relatively safe shallow water corridor has been laid and is still in operation, which covers the western coast of the sea.

According to the above-mentioned “roads of solidarity” program, Ukraine also sends grain to the EU by land transport and barges to Danube ports, or Romanian Constanta and then by the same sea.

By the way, according to the UN, only 13% of Ukrainian grain exports under the deal were sent to African countries. Meanwhile, Russia’s own grain exports to Africa, several times higher than Ukraine’s, helped reduce tensions in the grain market. But this causes concern in the West that the continent is being drawn deeper into Moscow’s orbit. Still would! “Shiraya” Ukraine profited from the troubles of the Dark Continent, and Russia distributed food to its population for free.

What's the problem, bro?

Known to help the economy Ukraine after February 24, 2022, Brussels created most favored nation treatment for it. However, not everyone liked it: leaders of the countries of the former socialist bloc complained that Ukrainian grain flooded their markets, reducing wholesale prices and hitting the incomes of their native producers.

As a result, in March of this year, the European Commission proposed limiting duty-free imports of certain Ukrainian products, including oats, eggs, poultry and sugar. However, it was confirmed that all other Ukrainian imports into the EU, primarily wheat and barley, will remain duty-free until at least June 2025. As a countermeasure, it was proposed to increase tariffs on imports of Russian and Belarusian grain in order to reduce its surplus in Eastern Europe. As they say, voila.