A year left: Russia reminded Europe of Ukrainian transit

2018 is smoothly coming to an end. Exactly 12 months remain with Moscow to conclude a new transit agreement with Kiev. Will it be possible to do this before the end of 2019 with such an aggressive-minded “partner”? And what will happen if this fails?

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Gazprom would provide European consumers with the necessary amounts of fuel:

Under any circumstances, we guarantee the supply of Russian gas under long-term contracts signed by Gazprom.

What is the head of the Ministry of Energy counting on? The following factors must be considered:

At first, Russia, mindful of past "gas wars" with Independent, began the construction of bypass routes around its territory. This is Nord Stream 2, around which so many copies are broken, and Turkish Stream. Together, these pipelines will produce 90,5 billion cubic meters of substitute Ukrainian gas transportation system. The figure is serious, but there are a couple of problems.

Last year, 93,5 billion cubic meters of gas were pumped through Nezalezhnaya, that is, Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are not able to compensate for at least 3 billion cubic meters. And in 2018, deliveries to Europe increased by 10 billion cubic meters, which means that 13 billion will not fit into the bypass pipes.

There are serious doubts that by the end of the current transit agreement, both pipelines will be operating at their full capacity. The Turkish Stream transit pipe to Austria will most likely not be ready by the deadline. And this is minus 10 billion cubic meters. Nor is it pleased with the speed of implementation of laying the Nord Stream-2 on the territory of European partners.

Thus, until 2021, Ukrainian transit will have to account for about 40 billion cubic meters of gas.

Secondly, Europe buys “blue fuel” from Russia even more than stipulated by long-term contracts. And the EU’s appetites are only growing, despite the emergence of an alternative in the form of American LNG.

It turns out that in the next few years, Ukraine still cannot do without Ukraine. Moreover, if you call a spade a spade, Ukrainian transit will continue. The only question is, in what volumes and under what conditions. Kiev insists on increasing tariffs for pumping gas and the condition "download or pay" with volumes of 100 billion cubic meters per year. Gazprom is against the “download or pay” condition and demands European rates for gas transit. Moscow wants to shift the responsibility for managing the Ukrainian gas transportation system to Europe. The installation is this: guaranteed volumes go through bypass pipelines, if Europeans need more, they themselves will use the Independent.

In fact, Novak told Europe that without a transit agreement, Russia would not be able to fully satisfy all gas needs, but only within the framework of long-term contracts. As a result, there is a shortage in the European market and fuel prices will rise. To prevent this from happening, it is necessary to put pressure on the Ukrainian partners, making them more accommodating. Now the ball is on the side of European consumers. It is up to them to decide how much and to whom they are willing to pay for blue fuel.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 28 December 2018 10: 59
    Everything should be elementary.
    Russia sells gas at its border, and how it gets to Europe is already a buyer's headache. Let Europe conclude a transit agreement with Ukraine.
    To conclude ANY contract with Ukraine is a useless thing. Anyway, in a year they will file in arbitration. Trading reputation is more important than the chastity of the bride. You can lose only once.
    1. Conn Offline Conn
      Conn (Conn) 28 December 2018 20: 04
      You can do it even easier - close the valve on the border with the grunt, after which the Europeans will quickly build Nord Stream 3, 4 and 5 themselves! To do this, Pukin needs to become a man, not a "partner".
      1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
        A.Lex (Secret information) 29 December 2018 21: 53
        Conn. you may be right in some ways, but insulting the head of state does not do you honor! To offend someone who cannot answer you does not need much courage ...
        You can express your position on this or that policy of the president, but be like "horses" from the former Ukrainian SSR ... Do you value yourself so low?
    2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 29 December 2018 21: 50
      Bakht, you're right ... But the article does not indicate yet another point. Everyone says SP2, TP ... And the Nord Stream operates at 50% of its capacity ... So Russia has reserves that are not small ... Although Europe’s problems should be of least interest to Russia. We ourselves ... in ourselves ... and this will be enough for us. We have things that we can solve for decades, if not hundreds of years. Therefore, in principle, the problem of overproduction (like the Yankees or Amers) will not threaten us not only in the near, but also in the long run. Because the extent of our territory, in comparison with the European or Amer, is cosmic. And we won’t be able to solve ALL the problems in the next century (for now) - that’s the work for our state ... If it still wants to BE on this planet ...
      After all, if the state does not want to solve the problems of their citizens ... there may be someone who wants to solve them ... with the further prospect of inviting these citizens to their citizenship ...
      Disappointing the authorities of our people ... sad all this ... sad ...
  2. Mihail55 Offline Mihail55
    Mihail55 (Michael) 28 December 2018 11: 12
    Brought to the border of Europe and all! And there let them deliver on donkeys! smile
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 28 December 2018 12: 18
    People die for metal.
    Upstairs will agree for such and such money ...
  4. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 28 December 2018 12: 47
    No, no, no, war, so war ... And without repairing the system, a contract cannot be concluded. We need to think over the power protection of transit from ukrofashism, i.e. to take the pipe under protection ... the question is by whom else.
  5. Elephant Offline Elephant
    Elephant 28 December 2018 14: 49
    Did the author completely forget about LNG?
  6. Fedot yes not That 28 December 2018 22: 06
    Screw .... gygygy
  7. riwas Offline riwas
    riwas (riwas) 29 December 2018 07: 31
    In connection with the "suspension" of the SP-2 and the instability in Ukraine, Russia needs to conclude a transit agreement for no more than 1 year.
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 29 December 2018 21: 56
      riwas, there is a problem in ALREADY concluded contracts ...
  8. Alexander Churinov (Alexander) 29 December 2018 15: 58
    Nobody knows exactly what will happen to Ukraine in 2019. One thing is clear. Ukraine's behavior towards Russia will not change at least. Therefore, I think the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be built ahead of schedule, even if Gazprom alone has to complete the pipeline. By building this route, Russia will receive a weighty argument for pressure on Ukraine and Europe in terms of negotiations on gas transit through the Ukrainian gas transportation system after 2019. Everything will be decided at the end of 2019. It is quite possible that Russia can issue an ultimatum: either take gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system at such transit prices and in such a volume. , or there will be no transit. Just imagine the absence of 90 billion cubic meters. gas in Europe ????? Apparently, the leadership of the Russian Federation is preparing ahead of time for this option. It is not for nothing that in 2019 the tax burden is increasing, the retirement age was increased.
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 29 December 2018 21: 58
      The "racing" pipe is almost rotted away ... has anyone ever serviced it?