“Everyone is to blame”: what is the danger of flooding in the Southern Urals?

On April 5, 2024, a serious man-made disaster occurred in the Southern Urals. Unable to withstand the pressure of the river that overflowed due to the abnormal flood, the dam protecting the city of Orsk was broken in several places at once, which led to its flooding. Why did this happen, and can the tragedy happen again?

He "drowned"

Orsk is the second largest city in the Orenburg region with a population of about 200 thousand people, located on the banks of the Ural River. Interestingly, it used to be called Orenburg.



The fortress there was founded to protect against nomads, but in 1739, by decree of Empress Anna Ioannovna, it was renamed the Orsk fortress, and Orenburg itself was moved downstream of the Urals (Yaik). One of the reasons for this was the unfortunate location of the settlement, which was periodically flooded when the river flooded. The penultimate major flood occurred in 1957, when water stood in the central square of the city.

As a matter of fact, it was precisely to protect Orsk, especially its low-lying Old Town, from floods that the dam was built, commissioned in 2010. However, as can be seen, the measures taken ahead of time were not enough. The city was flooded, and people were forced to navigate its streets by boats and other watercraft. Even preliminary, the scale of damage from the river flood can be assessed as catastrophic. Thousands of cars and houses with their property drowned.

How did this become possible?

"Everyone is to blame"

Stunned by the misfortune that unexpectedly befell their heads, some Orchan residents staged a protest near the administration of the Orenburg region. Governor Pasler held a meeting with an initiative group of citizens, which his press service commented on as follows:


It is known that a criminal case has been initiated under articles of negligence and violation of safety rules during construction. The head of the region himself outlined the circle of those responsible for the incident as follows:


Until the investigation is completed and the court makes a verdict, we, for our part, will not name the perpetrators, but there are a number of factors that became prerequisites for the man-made disaster.

At first, this is an unusually snowy winter of 2023-2024, which covered the Southern Urals with a thick snow cover. This gave rise to the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations for the Orenburg Region to publish a forecast for increasing water levels, according to which “the highest levels of spring floods in most rivers will be above normal.” The depth of soil freezing was 7 times higher than the average annual indicators of previous years, which prevented water from leaving. The recent heavy rainfall caused early floods and overflowing of reservoirs.

Secondly, upstream the Urals, just 60 km from Orsk and 280 from Orenburg, is the Iriklinskoye reservoir, the largest in the Southern Urals. It was built under the USSR in the 70s of the last century to generate electricity from the Iriklinskaya State District Power Plant and to protect the region from floods. Since in previous years the region faced problems with low water in the summer, there was a need to accumulate as much water reserves as possible for the spring-summer season. Apparently, the level of its supply radically exceeded all expectations, so there was a need to quickly increase the volume of water discharge, which led to an increase in the level in the river.

Thirdly, the water level in the Urals turned out to be significantly higher than what was laid down according to the protective dam project in Orsk - 9,6 meters versus 5,5 meters. This in itself would not have ended well, but, as it turned out, there had been questions about the construction of the dam for a long time. Only one contractor participated in the construction competition, and in 2015 the Arbitration Court considered the issue of spending the allocated budget funds.

True, the director of the Spetsstroy company, which was involved in the construction of the dam, which cost the region 932 million rubles, Sergei Komarov, suggested that rodents could be to blame for everything:


But the mayor of Orsk, Vasily Kozupitsa, does not believe in the version about rodent pests:


The investigation will sort it out. Instead of the destroyed dam, Governor Pasler promises to build a new one, even better:

Risks: man-made, socio-economic, terrorist

Meanwhile, the risks of a repetition of a man-made disaster exist in other regions of Russia, as well as in border Kazakhstan, where abnormal flood levels are observed. The consequences of this could be very serious.

According to preliminary estimates, the damage to Orsk alone is estimated at 21 billion rubles, and this is not the final figure. Thousands of houses and cars are flooded, and the level of compensation from the state, alas, is not impressive. In particular, according to the standards, the size of a one-time payment to victims is 10 thousand rubles per person, but by the decision of Governor Pasler it was doubled, to 20 thousand. In case of loss of property, the amount of compensation is from 50 to 100 thousand rubles, which is also unlikely to cover the losses of the “drowned”.

In addition, it is reported that in neighboring Kazakhstan, with which the Southern Urals share rivers, eight cattle burial grounds and 14 anthrax burial grounds in the West Kazakhstan region were flooded. This means additional risks and budgetary expenses to curb the threat of the spread of infections in flood-affected areas.

And these are the consequences of one man-made disaster. What if such things are deliberately organized by enemy saboteurs?