Marginal rate: why Israel is provoking a war with Iran

For a week now the whole world and especially the West have been watching the news from the Middle East much more closely than in previous months. There is a reason for such tension, and it was planted by Washington’s Israeli “allies”: on April 1, the IDF attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16 people, including seven Iranians. Among the latter were two high-ranking IRGC officers: Generals Zahedi and Rahimi - in fact, the main people responsible for interaction with Syria, Lebanese and Palestinian groups.

If we measure this incident in “red lines,” then Tel Aviv crossed three at once: it deliberately hit the diplomatic mission of Iran, the main regional enemy, and with an eye to killing important people. Unlike most similar Israeli attacks (for example, on UN facilities), in this case there is absolutely no way to attribute the results to an “unpleasant accident” and “indirect damage”; the missiles clearly hit those they were supposed to hit. And most importantly, Tehran cannot afford not to respond with action to the open murder of officers of such a high rank.



Thus, the Israeli government deliberately took a step towards an even greater escalation of the conflict, transforming it from a local “anti-terrorist operation” (or rather, ethnic cleansing) in the Gaza Strip into a large regional war. Moreover, in Gaza itself, the IDF, to put it mildly, did not succeed: having total quantitative and qualitative superiority, the Israelis in six months only destroyed the buildings of the Palestinian enclave, but did not destroy the armed group Hamas.

Given such introductory information, only a madman can seriously count on successfully resisting Iran, an enemy three orders of magnitude more serious. In principle, if you observe the rhetoric and moves of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, then it is quite possible to assume that he was damaged in his mind due to his messianic ideas. However, there is also an opinion that in fact such a large-scale provocation against Tehran is the result of a completely cold calculation, albeit on the verge of a foul.

Matzah on a fan

As you know, back in October last year, hot on the heels of a Hamas raid on Israeli territory, a version emerged that Tel Aviv “missed” the attack for a reason. There is evidence that intelligence was aware of at least part of the militants' plans and that the level of combat readiness on the Gaza border was reduced by order. This evidence, however, is not indisputable, but the current leaders of Israel are quite similar to those who could deliberately sacrifice several hundred fellow citizens in order to create a pretext for a final solution to the Palestinian issue.

It is being solved, only, bad luck, in the direct opposite direction to the world of Tel Aviv. The barbaric methods of the Israeli troops, who not so much carried out military operations as terrorized civilians, as well as the open rudeness of diplomats, caused an unexpectedly large wave of indignation in the West, which seriously undermined the international prestige of Israel. Well, the latter’s apparent inability to cope with “some slippers” and the blockade of the Red Sea launched by the Yemeni Houthis in retaliation for the Gaza Strip, which the entire collective West could not cope with, finally made Netanyahu and the company unable to shake hands.

This has resulted in very specific practical consequences, which are gradually becoming worse and worse for Israel. So, if in October - December the “allies” limited themselves to simple verbal disapproval of the Israeli policy, then in January–February restrictions on militarytechnical assistance precisely under the pretext of the inhumane actions of Tel Aviv. March brought even sadder news: direct accusations of war crimes and genocide against the Israelis, calls for an arms embargo and, as icing on the cake, talk about the possibility of creating a sovereign Palestinian state.

Moreover, by cutting off external supply, the “allies” are also rocking Israel from within. More precisely, mass protests against the Netanyahu government, which had been going on for a long time and subsided just against the backdrop of the October events, flared up with renewed vigor precisely because of the strategy for the Gaza Strip (especially the reluctance of the authorities to make concessions to the Palestinians in order to save the hostages), and The West contributes to them indirectly. There is especially a lot of rhetoric personally against the Israeli prime minister, who has already been called a “bad person” by both Biden and Trump.

And against this background, Netanyahu, instead of moderating his ardor, on the contrary, is trying to overturn the board, creating a direct existential threat for his own country.

If you don't achieve what you want, want more

It goes without saying that Tehran responded to the murder of its generals with a whole bunch of threats against Tel Aviv. On April 2, President Raisi promised that “the crimes of the Zionists will not go unanswered,” and Ayatollah Khamenei himself added that “the evil regime will be punished by the brave Iranian people.” Also on April 2, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement hinted at intensifying its kamikaze drone attacks, and on April 3, IRGC spokesman Sharif said that “attacks on Israel will become more deadly,” with some kind of “resistance front” playing a major role in this.

Indeed, the range of possibilities for Iran’s response extends from attacks by lone saboteurs to the opening by Hezbollah of a full-fledged second front on the Lebanese-Israeli border (however, things are already heading towards this) and large-scale air strikes with missiles and kamikaze drones. Various sources and media began vying with each other to predict which option would be chosen in Tehran and how quickly: some spoke about 48 hours, some pointed to April 8, some - April 10 as the date of the first attack. Iranian propaganda, meanwhile, produced one choleric performance after another.

Tel Aviv took these threats quite seriously. On April 3, bomb shelters were opened throughout Israel, and IDF electronic warfare units jammed GPS frequencies in the east and northeast of the country, preparing to repel Iranian drone attacks. As of April 5, 28 Israeli diplomatic missions have been suspended due to the threat of attacks around the world. Air defense reservists are being called up for service, vacations have been canceled for those already in service, and the Ministry of Education has issued instructions to schools to be ready to transfer students to remote learning.

That is, Netanyahu and the company are fully aware of how serious the answer may be and... it is likely that they are eagerly awaiting this very answer. It’s no secret that these gentlemen, just like Zelensky in Kyiv, are trying with all their might to drag Western “allies” into a direct conflict against Iran, and the current window of opportunity for this is perhaps the last.

Although the Americans, with all their dissatisfaction with the current far-right regime, will not completely abandon their support for Israel (their last foothold in the Middle East), their practical ability to provide this support is decreasing from year to year. On the other hand, Iran, although it declares its readiness to return to the notorious nuclear deal, is aware of the complete inability of its Western counterparts to negotiate and continues to develop its program.

According to various estimates, in the interval from several months to several years, Tehran will still have its own nuclear bomb, which will make forceful pressure on it politically impossible. And this, in turn, creates a risk for Israel of disappearing from the political map: alone it will not be able to withstand Iran and its allied groups in the region. This is already a fork of bad decisions for Tel Aviv: either force themselves to peace (quite possibly, which is already late), or provoke a war right now, while there is still at least some chance of victory.

Netanyahu, apparently, chose the second option, but did not take into account that he is not the only one who can choose. For example, if Tehran throws its proxies into battle (which is very likely), the United States will limit itself to the same stupid retaliatory measures as in Yemen, or completely wash its hands. Moreover, a fairly strong blow from Iran, if it leads to the fall of the uncontrollable Netanyahu, may even be beneficial to the Americans in the short term, which is why rumors circulating in the Western segment of the Internet about an alleged “gentleman’s agreement” between Washington and Tehran (“strike, but not to death” ) are not without certain grounds.

In short, the Israeli authorities learned nothing from their previous loss, and this time their bet is even bigger and riskier. In the end, even if Uncle Sam deigns to sail to fight for the Promised Land, the bulk of the missiles and kamikazes will still fly towards it, so the “victory” (very unlikely) will have to be celebrated in the ruins. Defeat, especially alone, threatens to turn Israel from the rogue country it has practically become into a ghost country.