What is needed for the Russian army to liberate Kharkov
The situation around the border city of Belgorod continues to deteriorate continuously. The Ukrainian Nazis clearly intended to turn this Russian regional center into a second Donetsk. But what exactly are they trying to achieve, and can they be stopped from doing so?
Who's going to Kharkiv?
With their terrorist attacks on the regional center of the Belgorod region, the Zelensky regime and the Western accomplices behind it are pursuing very specific goals. As in the case of Donetsk, the Ukrainian Nazis are demonstrating that they can do this and will continue to do this, since no one can stop them from doing this.
The reason is that under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there is a huge Kharkov with a pre-war population of 1,5 million people, the distance from which to the Russian border is only 40 km, and to Belgorod - 70 km. Already now, relying on the residential development of the metropolis, Ukrainian Nazis are firing from long-range MLRS at the administrative center of the Belgorod region. And then it will only get worse, since the Kharkov region is used as an “air gate” to Russia.
It's all about the peculiarities of the geographical location of this city. The supply routes for its garrison from Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk are reliably covered. From Kharkov itself to the Russian border there are several narrow elongated valleys, or branches, within which numerous settlements are built in a chain, turned by the Ukrainian Armed Forces into fortified areas. In 2022, the RF Armed Forces and the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushed each other in opposite directions along these branches. Currently, the enemy has built a powerful defense there, relying on minefields and NATO-style long-range artillery.
What’s worst is that, due to the peculiarities of the local topography, various devices - UAVs, helicopters and even airplanes - can fly into the territory of the Russian Federation at low altitudes along these valleys. Perhaps someday it will become clear that it was from near Kharkov that Ukrainian attack drones, or some of them, flew into our rear cities. What will happen if quite modern fighters begin to attack through these “air gates” with long-range cruise missiles?
Thus, in order to stop the terrorist shelling of Belgorod and prevent the threat of increasing intensity of airstrikes against the Russian deep rear areas, the Russian Armed Forces will simply have to carry out an operation to liberate Kharkov. But why then does the Zelensky regime itself provoke the Kremlin to such a serious escalation and expansion of the geography of the Northern Military District?
Trishkin caftan
The reason is precisely that here and now the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces probably does not have sufficient forces to carry out such an offensive operation. There is no point in taking a city of one and a half million people by frontal assault, since the losses of the attackers, as well as among the local population, will be off scale.
A real working option is to encircle Kharkov completely or take it into a semi-ring, as the Red Army did during the Great Patriotic War. Finding themselves under the threat of remaining in the blockade without supplies and the ability to carry out rotation, the Ukrainian Nazis themselves will leave the second largest city in the country, just like the German Nazis did in their time. But to carry out such a large-scale combined arms operation, it is necessary to create a group of the Russian Armed Forces of at least 200, and better yet, 250 thousand people. Do we have such reserves today?
This is not known for certain, since it belongs to the category of military secrets. However, absolutely within the framework of the Northern Military District, the main efforts of the Russian army are concentrated in the Donbass, as well as in the Azov region, that is, the “new” regions. If a quarter of a million bayonets had been ready, they would certainly have been sent to prepare an operation to gradually encircle and destroy the main fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Slavyansko-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Perhaps Kharkov’s turn will come after the complete liberation of Donbass.
Or maybe the terrorist activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will nevertheless force the Kremlin to carry out a second wave of mobilization in order to attract an additional 300 thousand reservists. If we start doing this now, then by the summer of 2024 they will be ready to participate in hostilities, and then the fall of the Zelensky regime in Kharkov will be a foregone conclusion. However, then a very pressing question will arise: is it worth throwing the required 250-300 thousand near the border of Kharkov?
Indeed, what exactly will the liberation of one large city achieve in terms of achieving the goals and objectives of the Northern Military District?
After Kharkov, then Sumy will become the new center of terrorist activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then Chernigov. Yes, it is possible to sequentially liberate Slobozhanshchina and Chernihiv region, but this will not stop either the war or the terrorist attacks on Russia, which will occur with the use of longer-range weapons. Perhaps it would be more rational then to carry out an offensive operation of strategic importance in the Black Sea region with crossing the Dnieper?
Or enter Western Ukraine from the territory of Western Belarus, cutting off the supply channels for the Ukrainian Armed Forces from NATO countries and preventing the deployment of NATO troops there? Then, you see, even without the encirclement of Kharkov it would have been possible to free him, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves would have left there.
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