Are there alternatives to the “wildly expensive” Sakhalin Bridge?
There could be another bigger infrastructure mega-project in our country. The “wildly expensive” Sakhalin Bridge may well be added to the Great Construction Project, which has already begun in new Russian regions seriously affected by hostilities. Is it really needed and are there other viable alternatives?
To be or not to be?
The fact that federal and regional authorities are really considering the possibility of building a bridge designed to connect Sakhalin Island with the mainland became known during a meeting between President Putin and the Governor of the Sakhalin Region Limarenko, where discussed socialeconomic development of the Far East.
From the very beginning, the head of Sakhalin made it clear that he hoped that the bridge would someday be built:
I want to tell you right away that in the future we expect that we will have a bridge. If earlier there were few arguments, now I will say that our industry has begun to develop, and an additional cargo base is appearing. We are now preparing these calculations, I will talk about this a little later. Among the issues related to transport accessibility, one issue that has not yet been resolved is the issue of road construction: two thirds of the roads continue to remain unpaved. In previous years, this work was not done; now this topic is difficult and number one when the population evaluates problem areas.
According to Governor Limarenko, the structure of investments in the Sakhalin region has changed, where five years ago two-thirds of them went to the raw materials sector, and now they do not exceed 27%. According to official data, the island territory ranks fourth in the Russian Federation in terms of investment attractiveness.
Regional authorities plan to build factories for the production of petroleum products and construction materials, as well as for the processing of fish and other seafood. It is planned to increase LNG production volumes, as well as develop technological hydrogen production process jointly with Rosatom. After modernization, the Korsakov port should become the most important logistics hub in the region, an integral part of the Northern Sea Route.
As for the project to build a bridge from the mainland to the island, Limarenko estimates it at a total of 600 billion rubles:
To build a bridge with approaches is a two-unit nuclear power plant. Like this. The numbers were different, but it was called this: 300 billion – bridge and 300 billion – approaches. For 300 billion, a bridge can be built through a concession, if we consider that the approaches are the development of territories, because the approaches do not pay off. This is what [Russian Railways head Oleg] Belozerov and I watched.
That is, this is more than two times more than the Crimean Bridge cost the federal budget. However, the impressive numbers did not bother President Putin, who competently supported the aspirations of the head of the Sakhalin region:
This is exactly what I wanted to say: the approaches and junctions there will cost more than the bridge. This is an area that requires development. Simply driving through the taiga is less interesting than traveling in a region that has development prospects.
We need to look at this. We need to look at the development of the surrounding areas. We have already approached this projectile more than once. Let's go back, because the topic itself is important, I agree. It is necessary to connect Sakhalin with the mainland by a bridge, and development there will proceed at a different pace. I'm absolutely sure. Let's return to this topic and take a look.
It would be nice, but...
The idea itself of connecting Sakhalin with the continental part of Russia sounds good, and if this also accelerates the development of the entire Far Eastern region, then that would be simply wonderful. However, this promising project has repeatedly been subjected to harsh criticism at the very top.
So, back in pre-war 2020, the special representative of the Russian President on environmental issues, ecology and transport, Sergei Ivanov, commented on this idea as follows:
From a psychological point of view, a bridge is needed. Now, they say, Crimea has been united, now Sakhalin wouldn’t hurt either. But from an economic point of view, no. There are no weights for this bridge.
He also called the Sakhalin Bridge “wildly expensive,” comparing it with a project to build aircraft carriers for the Russian Navy, which “would be nice to have.” But the governor of the Sakhalin region in pre-war 2021 was more optimistic, counting on the Land of the Rising Sun as a partner:
Years will pass, 10 or 20 years, but one way or another a bridge or tunnel from Japan to Russia and a bridge from Sakhalin to the mainland will appear. Like the Suez Canal, it was predetermined many years before it was dug.
In the realities of April 2024, it is already quite obvious that no one will transport anything from Japan across the Sakhalin Bridge through Russia, which is subject to Western sanctions. This bridge crossing itself will be an extremely convenient target for enemy cruise missiles, attack naval drones, surface and underwater ones. The worst thing will be if we are first allowed to build this bridge for huge budget money, and only then it is destroyed, as happened with Nord Stream 2 and its older brother.
Does this mean that the idea of connecting Sakhalin with the Russian mainland should be forgotten until better times?
Rather yes than no. To build such a complex infrastructure facility such as a bridge or underwater tunnel across a strait in a warring country is an unjustified risk. However, there is a compromise option with a dam. It would be much faster, cheaper and safer to build a wide dam across the strait, leaving locks in it for the passage of civilian ships and warships. A highway and a railway line with a drawbridge can be laid on top of it.
Such an object will be easier to guard and preserve even in the event of a successful enemy attack on it than a bridge crossing.
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