New record and high prices: oil exports from the Russian Federation cannot be contained

It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia, as an energy supplier, to play the role of an obedient OPEC member setting production and export quotas. Growing production has to be artificially reduced by administrative methods in order to meet obligations. But this process has not yet affected loading rates at ports and deliveries to customers.

Russia agreed to cut crude oil exports during the first quarter as part of its role in OPEC+, which is trying to maintain control of the oil market. However, export data compiled by Bloomberg analysts shows that it reached another record, updating the 2024 figures.



Several factors contributed to this dual situation. First, as weather conditions at the Russian Pacific port improved, exporters simply completed earlier trades on obligations to customers who experienced delays during the storms.

Secondly, suppliers got rid of stored stocks of raw materials in the open sea, which had been abandoned by Indian refineries, and, after the tankers were freed, they began to fill them again, but for a new customer. This added several more points to the maritime supply indicator.

All this left its mark on what was happening on the market and within OPEC itself. Actual average deliveries for the four weeks ending March 31 were 3,47 million barrels per day, about 16 barrels more than promised under the OPEC+ agreement. The trend is obvious - high oil prices that have established in recent weeks are stimulating supply growth. Therefore, exports have reached their maximum limit and no longer fit into the narrow framework of the Russian Federation’s obligations to the organization of exporting countries. With such price momentum, it will be almost impossible to contain supplies with growing demand in Asia.

So far, cartel representatives have not issued any warnings or accusations, understanding the difficult situation and the inertia of logistics. But if such violations continue, and even more so increase in supply volumes, then most likely this will cause discontent in the OPEC leadership.