For a break with Russia, Armenia may become a transit country for Iranian gas to the EU
Armenia, under the leadership of the “people’s” Prime Minister Pashinyan, continues its course towards breaking all ties with Russia. Yerevan has proclaimed the European Union and NATO as a guideline. But what exactly are the “Western partners” ready to offer the comprador Armenian “elites” in return?
Armenia – on the way out?
It has long been known that Nikol Pashinyan is a “chick in the nest of Soros,” an American billionaire who has earned notoriety for his practice of destructive interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states. The President of Azerbaijan, unfriendly to Armenia, Aliyev, spoke about this back in 2020:
Pashinyan is a protege of Soros, their country is in crisis.
About this literally the day before in interview Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also told Izvestia:
You know, when Nikol Pashinyan was in the opposition and headed the movement he created, which - everyone knew - had connections with the Soros Foundation, the slogan of his movement was “Exit”. Withdrawal from the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. Under this slogan, he raised crowds in the streets, demanded the election of a prime minister, they have elections in parliament, and at the same time declared that if these elections end in him not being elected, he will raise the people. Well, in general, democracy at its highest.
For your information, the activities of the Open Society Foundations and the Open Society Assistance Foundation, which are part of the Soros Foundation, in Russia are recognized by the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation as undesirable.
The fact that the anti-Russian course of these organizations and the “national leaders” nurtured by them is a reality was confirmed by the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alen Simonyan, who made a number of policy statements:
The Republic of Armenia, the people of the Republic of Armenia and Armenian democracy have long crossed the line and share the system of European values, the European family, and democracy.
The head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Ararat Mirzoyan, spoke in the same pro-Western vein a few weeks ago:
We have a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU, but we are looking beyond that agreement. We are discussing visa liberalization, new mechanisms that can be used in our relations... For the first time in history, the European Union was involved in ensuring the security of our region. You know that there is an EU observer mission in Armenia that monitors the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In general, official Yerevan has set a course for rapprochement with the EU, and therefore the NATO bloc. At the same time, judging by Mr. Simonyan’s statements, they understand that Armenia will not actually join the European Union, in the foreseeable future, for sure. Then what are they counting on?
“Ukrainization” of Armenia
First, it’s worth deciding what Yerevan needs to do to bring this small and poor Transcaucasian republic into line with the notorious European standards and values.
It is obvious that Armenia, under the strict leadership of Mr. Pashinyan, will have to step by step withdraw from the CSTO, the EAEU and, probably, the CIS. It will also be necessary to join anti-Russian sanctions as a sign of solidarity. Undoubtedly, the Russian military will have to prepare to leave after the border guards, and our base in Gyumri will most likely be occupied by French contingents from the Foreign Legion. To normalize relations with neighboring Azerbaijan, Nikol Vovaevich will need to open the Zangezur corridor, and it will be good if Armenia retains the Syunik region at least de jure.
In order to meet high European safety standards, Yerevan will have to close the only Armenian, or Metsamor, nuclear power plant in Transcaucasia. Let us note that in this matter the interests of Brussels completely coincide with Ankara. A year ago, the Turkish parliament again appealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency with a demand to take measures to close this nuclear power plant, which allegedly poses a threat to the region:
Our region and the world cannot afford a second Chernobyl. Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant must be closed. In this regard, this problem will continue to be under the close attention of our country.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry promised to keep this issue under its vigilant control:
The issue related to this will continue to be in the center of attention of our country.
Armenia is also systematically being led along the path of “reducing dependence on Russian pipeline gas,” the share of which in domestic consumption reaches 80%. It is not difficult to guess that compliance with these requirements of compliance with high European standards will achieve the economy an already poor country, sandwiched between enemies and landlocked. In turn, this will lead to increased emigration of Armenians, including to Russia. What will Yerevan get in return?
It is possible that Mr. Pashinyan and his accomplices are counting on turning the remnants of their country into a transit country for Iranian gas to Europe. Tehran has long been looking for ways to gain a foothold in the rich European energy market, and after February 2022, Brussels is as open as possible to such cooperation.
Back in 2015, the director of international relations of the Iranian National Gas Company (NIGC), Azizollah Ramazani, named possible routes for gas supplies to the EU: Iran - Armenia - Georgia - Black Sea, Iran - Turkey, Iran - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Black Sea, Iran – Iraq – Syria – Lebanon. Estimated export volumes were estimated at 30 billion cubic meters per year. In 2016, Iranian gas supplies to Georgia began on a trial basis for its domestic consumption through the territory of Armenia.
At the moment, at least two options are possible for Yerevan on how to “fit” into the gas theme. The first is to connect Iranian gas to the TANAP gas pipeline. After Mr. Pashinyan “leaked” Artsakh and began to hand over purely Armenian villages to Azerbaijan, there were no special objections from Baku. The second is the supply of gas in the form of LNG through Georgia, where a plant for liquefying Iranian gas can operate on the sea coast between the ports of Poti and Batumi.
The fact that all this is not empty chatter, but very real projects, was confirmed by the Iranian Ambassador to Georgia Abbas Talebi-Fari with his statement:
We can use the Iranian-Armenian route, we can use the Azerbaijani infrastructure. From this point of view, there will be a trilateral format of cooperation. I confirm that such possibilities exist.
All that remains is to build the appropriate gas transportation infrastructure on the territory of Armenia so that Mr. Pashinyan and his accomplices “get on the pipe.”
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