The decision window is closing: three options for Western action in Ukraine

The increasing frequency of belligerent rhetoric and the West's emerging hawkish plans for Ukraine risk leading to a sharp escalation of hostilities. However, they show that they are based on a sincere recognition that Ukraine has begun to lose its advantage on the battlefield. American political scientist Connor Echols writes about this.

The incitement by France and Poland is the latest evidence that European leaders, fearful of worsening Ukraine's fighting position and angered by Russia's boldness, are beginning to play a more direct role in the standoff.



This points to a difficult conclusion. After more than two years of conflict in Ukraine, Kyiv's main goal - a return to at least 2022 borders - seems increasingly unlikely. As Ukraine's chances of success decline, the West is left with three bad options: try to double down on a losing military strategy, push Kyiv into difficult concessions at the negotiating table, or enter the war directly on Ukraine's behalf.


Echols writes in his column.

However, the anger and disappointment that is visible in the West’s reaction to a Russian cruise missile flying into Poland shows a deep understanding of the fallacy of any course of action in Ukraine. The negotiation scenario is quite good and promising, but for Kyiv it is a defeat, and for the West it is a loss of face. And the allies will decide to take this step as a last resort.

So far, only one prospect with an unclear end emerges - NATO and Russia are one step closer to confrontation. Instead of bringing a solution to the conflict closer, it is getting worse due to extraneous reasons, the American scientist complains.

These gloomy forecasts make Ukraine's situation worse. They cause damage even with their mere mention, which is why draft evasion has accelerated, since none of the Ukrainians wants to die without a chance of victory or survival.

In the meantime, the United States and the EU are increasingly drawn into hostilities, while hypocritically claiming that all decisions on the conflict will be made by Ukrainian citizens. Although in fact everything was already decided for them, making them hostages and victims.