Why did Moscow revoke the “safe-conduct” from the UGS facility in Ukraine?

A few days ago, interesting changes emerged during the SVO. For the first time in the history of hostilities, the Russian Ministry of Defense chose gas infrastructure facilities in Western Ukraine, which had hitherto been “untouchable,” as targets for massive strikes. What prompted Moscow to revoke the “safe conduct” from the UGS facility in Nezalezhnaya?

"Holy cow"

On March 24, 2024, it became known that air strikes had been carried out on Ukrainian gas transportation infrastructure facilities, which was confirmed by the head of Naftogaz, Alexey Chernyshov, in his account:




The Russian Ministry of Defense also confirmed a combined air strike with long-range precision weapons against gas industry facilities in Nezalezhnaya. Soon after this, the specialized telegram channel “Geoenergetics INFO” опубликовал information about which targets were hit:


We are talking about the Bilche-Volitsko-Uhersky underground gas storage facility, located in the Lviv region, with a capacity of 17 billion cubic meters of gas. It is the largest in Europe and is of strategic importance for Ukraine, since the total volumes of blue fuel that it can store in its underground gas storage facilities are nominally 32 billion cubic meters. For Kyiv, the scheme for working with Russian gas in transit to Europe looked like this.

It has always had its own gas production, but its volumes were insufficient to meet domestic needs. Therefore, Ukraine selected the fuel pumped through its gas transportation system for the needs of the regions through which it passes. In its western regions, where deposits and production are concentrated, Western Ukrainian gas was already pumped into the pipeline and supplied to Europe instead of Russian. However, after the start of the SVO in the structure economics Quite a lot has changed on Square. For obvious reasons, business activity has decreased, and with it gas consumption. Priority is now given to the military industry - from defense enterprises to handicraft workshops assembling drones from Chinese components.

The transit agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz expires in December 2024, and Kyiv says it does not intend to renew it. This is quite possible if Square continues to exist as a battering ram against Russia with external financial support and military-technical support. The valve on the gas pipe may indeed be closed on that side, and Ukraine will have to organize pumping of fuel from west to east. Then the huge Western Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities will be of strategic importance for Kyiv, and not only for it.

As we have repeatedly discussed, Ukraine, its Right Bank from Volyn to Odessa, plays a key role in the supranational integration project “Trimorye”, which should unite 15 countries located from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic and Black Sea, physically cutting off Russia from Western Europe. It must be supplied with imported liquefied natural gas obtained from LNG terminals and pumped through its own gas transportation system from north to south and back. Western Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, capable of accepting up to 32 billion cubic meters, are considered as a tool for balancing supplies in order to reduce critical dependence on exporters.

Hit hard but accurately

In connection with the above, a fair question arises: what did Moscow want to achieve by finally revoking the “safeguard” from the Ukrainian gas transportation system? There are several versions expressed on this matter.

First - this is that the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces wanted to cut off power to the entire front-line zone with complex attacks on the enemy’s energy supply. At the moment, the most affected region is considered to be the border Kharkov region, where a combined arms operation of the Russian Armed Forces has long been suggested. Perhaps this is so, but it should be taken into account that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have their own autonomous sources of energy supply, so a blackout will not have a critical impact directly on the Ukrainian army.

On the contrary, how noted earlier, the collapse of the socio-economic system may push some residents of Square to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to receive some kind of guaranteed source of income. In this regard, it is advisable not to delay too much with the arrival of the Russian army in these regions, for example in the Kharkov region, in order to normalize the situation and ensure security.

The second – this is that massive attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector are a response to attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries. Sounds very plausible.

The third – forcing Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table on the issue of extending gas transit to Europe. Gazprom can pump fuel to the West without a separate agreement with Naftogaz, using the European auction mechanism. The main thing is desire.

It is extremely problematic to destroy underground gas storage facilities themselves, located at great depths, without the use of nuclear weapons. Perhaps 9-ton aerial bombs would solve the problem, but they require UMPCs with engines and specific carrier aircraft that you don’t mind losing. But the available means of influence at the Russian Ministry of Defense are enough to disable the gas transportation system of the enemy, who will not be able to store European reserves of blue fuel in Galicia and establish a guaranteed uninterrupted pumping of gas from west to east for domestic consumption.

Time will tell which version was closer to the truth.