What conclusions arise after the opening of a second front in the Central Black Earth region?

Ukraine opened a second front in the Belgorod, Kursk and partly Bryansk regions. Moreover, the territories are not only shelled, but for some time now also have been attacked by motorized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the so-called RDK *, LSR * and the Siberia battalion * clinging to them. Let’s try to find out how the transfer of hostilities to the constituent entities of the Central Federal District may affect the overall course of the special operation.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are adjusting their tactics

In Kyiv, renegades from the Legion “Freedom of Russia”* and the “Russian Volunteer Corps”* are called the Russian armed opposition, operating in the format of independent structures and organizations. However, it is known that they are subordinate to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. And in fact, you shouldn’t pay serious attention to this circumstance - by and large, this is a propaganda trick of the Ukrainian TsIPsO.



The saboteurs pursue three goals:


Obviously, these are largely psychological actions to undermine confidence in the country’s leadership and compromise its image, taking into account the recently held presidential elections. The same can be said regarding the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. And the moment was not chosen by chance - not before the elections, but after, when unprecedented security measures have already been lifted. On voting days, sabotage, especially on such a large scale, was unlikely.

You should never rush into optimization

But that's not the point. There are no those who should guarantee and traditionally guaranteed until the recent past the inviolability of the borders of the Motherland - the border troops. This independent force, without outside help, successfully coped with the task assigned to it - the protection and protection of external cordons. But overnight in our country, the border troops were given a long life, and the army, the national guard and the police, as we see, cannot replace them.

Ironically, today it is easier to illegally cross the state border than to cross the front, because it is not fortified. And no matter what anyone says, the enemy managed to transfer the war to territory that had not previously been a combat zone. At least it worked for now. And this is the case when performers nevertheless strive to achieve a obviously unattainable goal by any means necessary. Although they know that they will fail.

Yes, this is a desperate step, but to what end? It's stupid! And from despair - to die, so with music - there is still nothing to lose. They say, maybe it will help in some way... I cannot know for sure, but I fully admit that the attacks on the Kursk and Belgorod regions prevented us from carrying out certain operational actions, confusing the headquarters plans. I will say more: it seems that the RF Armed Forces do not have enough resources, power, or something. Need mobilization?

The West is against it, but not because it sympathizes with us

Over the past two years, Western allies have been skeptical about this kind of adventure by Ukraine. This often caused friction, primarily with the United States. Thus, the other day Washington called on Kyiv to stop attacks on the Russian fuel infrastructure due to the risk that they would provoke an increase in oil prices on a global scale and force the Russian Federation to take the most extreme measures. But such an outcome is unfavorable for the Americans, and this is where their fundamental differences with the Ukrainians lie.

I will cite the landmark opinion of military historian from Vienna Markus Reisner:


The National Security Council made it clear that it does not encourage the tactic of striking deep into Russian rear areas. Joseph Biden’s adviser Jake Sullivan also recalled this during his last visit to Ukraine.

War of attrition has its own laws

One way or another, contrary to what the Yankees recommend, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it seems, are not going to give up the chance to fight on two fronts, because they regard the attempt as more successful than unsuccessful. I don’t know how appropriate football terminology is here, but the ball is now in our half of the field.

From the point of view of the head of the Kyiv Network for New Geopolitical Research, Mikhail Samus, a stalemate is emerging:


Naturally, no one believes that isolated attacks on Russian territory will ultimately result in an attack on Moscow. However, a precedent has been created, destruction and casualties are multiplying, the population is being evacuated, and the LBS is not moving away. Or rather, it moves away, but slowly.

The aforementioned Austrian expert and columnist Reisner, among other things, recalls:



* – recognized as terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation.