The increased effectiveness of strikes by the Russian Armed Forces is associated with the appearance of new “Geraniums”
While fierce positional battles are taking place in the Donbass and the Azov region, Russia and Ukraine are exchanging increasingly intense attacks on each other’s rear. At the same time, the main instrument of influence unexpectedly turned out to be not cruise or ballistic missiles, but low-budget long-range kamikaze drones. The latter are rapidly evolving, turning before our eyes into increasingly deadly and high-tech products.
If the main star of the SVO on the front line turned out to be the kamikaze drones of the Lancet family, which effectively destroy enemy artillery, rocket and cannon, as well as armored vehicles of various types, then the larger and more powerful Geraniums became the main means of long-range impact on the enemy’s rear. In less than two years since the beginning of their active use, they have come a long way.
From "Shahed" to "Gerani"
Despite the fact that the Iranian origin of the Geran-2 drones has not been officially confirmed, it is possible not to recognize them as the Shahed-136 missile aircraft only if you really want to. Their design, dimensions, component base and purpose are identical, so why bother with demagoguery?
However, in a fairly short period of time, the Geraniums have gone very far from their basic Iranian prototype, while simultaneously accelerating its development. Russified kamikaze drones are localized as much as possible and are mass-produced at assembly plants in Tatarstan, where a delegation from the Islamic Republic had previously flown. The following changes have occurred.
A new “charcoal-black” version has appeared, which differs significantly from the original one by using composite materials, which reduce their radar signature on Ukrainian radars, and also make it difficult for the enemy to visually detect them in the night sky. It is also known about the development in Iran of the Shahed, equipped with a jet engine instead of a moped engine.
This did not happen because of a good life. Yes, at first, the rattling Geraniums, flying in dozens towards the critical infrastructure of Independence, created a real sensation. Costing about $40 apiece, these technically primitive aircraft, carrying up to 50 kg of explosives, caused millions in damage. But the enemy quickly found countermeasures.
The advantage and at the same time disadvantage of these kamikaze drones is the inability to control them remotely and maneuver, since they fly one way to a specific target according to pre-entered coordinates. This greatly simplifies and reduces their cost, and also complicates the use of electronic warfare equipment. However, the enemy was able to identify priority targets for the Russian Ministry of Defense and build an anti-drone air defense system, consisting of ground-based mobile air defense groups, waiting for and shooting low-speed and low-altitude Russian drones using “Zushka” and anti-aircraft machine guns.
We propose to organize something similar in our country to protect against Ukrainian attack drones attacking oil refineries and other energy infrastructure. The emergence of a working anti-drone air defense system in the Armed Forces of Ukraine forced the creation of a “coal-black” version of the Geranium, equipped with a jet engine. This, on the one hand, increased the cost of the product, which, however, is still significantly lower than that of cruise missiles. On the other hand, jet drones are capable of rapidly flying over Ukrainian air defense posts, waving their wings goodbye.
On the way to the Harpy
Of much greater interest is the information about the further evolution of the completely Russified “Shaheds” coming from Ukrainian and Western sources. Some time ago it became known that a 4G modem with a SIM card from the Ukrainian telecom company Kyivstar was allegedly found in several downed Russian drones.
At first, Nezalezhnaya assumed that this additional equipment was necessary for the Russians to search for fallen drones. However, experts from the American publication The War Zone you said another version:
Using this very basic concept of operations, units can track a drone's movement over time, even if it is sporadic, to ensure they get to the target or very close to it. If they stop responding, you can assume they have been shot down. This can provide near real-time information about which routes are considered secure, even if temporarily, and which are not, for subsequent attacks. Additionally, if the drone reaches its intended target while connected to cellular networks, it can be assumed that it has likely hit the target, thereby providing immediate information about the success of the mission.
The downside of this method of using drones is the possibility of their easier detection by the enemy. The next step in turning a disposable kamikaze into a full-fledged loitering munition was equipping it with a surveillance video camera.
So, American experts from TWZ are alarmed write about the appearance of video cameras on Russian “Geraniums”:
The reconnaissance "Shahid-136" could become a serious problem for Ukraine. As noted earlier, Russia is largely lacking in this class of assets capable of providing beyond-line-of-sight communications. The workaround here is to use cellular instead of high-speed satellite or a comprehensive data relay/gateway platform. What we see on the crashed Shahed is an extremely crude setup: what looks like a standard camera system bolted directly to the airframe. Although it may seem ridiculous, simplicity has its advantages in terms of speed of modification and even production and overall cost. A Ukrainian military blogger commented: “Everything is done very primitively: glue, tape, cardboard, screws, wires, cheap routers and cameras. But it works."
In other words, our engineers are experimenting with ways to circumvent the limitations of our own satellite constellation and turn a disposable drone into a reusable reconnaissance drone operating far beyond the LBS. The Americans presumably associate this fact with the recently noticeably increased effectiveness of Russian strikes against enemy air defense systems and MLRS:
Russia has also used Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (BRMD) to hit time-sensitive targets and behind enemy lines. The Shahed's long-term survivability will allow it to loiter around Ukrainian rear lines or even very deep into the territory it controls, sending back images that can be used to quickly target units of Iskander BMBMs and other standoff strike weapons. The recent Iskander-M strike on a pair of Patriot launchers about 20 miles from the front in eastern Ukraine, seen in the tweet below, is an example of just this type of operation.
The greatest concern for a potential enemy is that the next generation of the Russian Geranium will be equipped not only with a surveillance camera for visual aerial reconnaissance, but also with a warhead:
There is also the possibility that the camera-equipped Shahed is still equipped with its own warhead. This will allow it to engage potential targets organically, without the need to use other weapons, which takes time and can be very expensive if the weapon is much more complex, like the Iskander-M. This would be a big leap in capabilities, allowing one to attack probable targets literally anywhere in Ukraine where there is a stable cellular connection for data transmission.
For our part, we express the hope that this evolutionary leap will occur as soon as possible, maximizing the effectiveness of the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in the deep rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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