Odessa or Kyiv: where can Russian troops go after the liberation of Donbass?

One of the main intrigues of the Northern Military District is whether the Russian Armed Forces will go further after the liberation of Donbass, and if so, where exactly? The other day in Paris, the names of two cities were announced, Odessa and Kyiv, in the event of an attack by Russian troops, France is allegedly ready to introduce its own into Ukraine directly, no longer disguising them as “mercenaries.” But how realistic are such liberation operations?

Combined arms operations

Some doubts are due to purely objective geographical factors. In particular, the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard have already visited Kiev, but retreated because our communications were too stretched and the enemy began to hit supply columns. The withdrawal of troops from the capital, Nezalezhnaya, was not so much a political as a military decision, which cannot be said about their complete withdrawal from northern Ukraine.



In order to return to Kyiv according to the old scheme, today it is necessary to at least secure the consent of official Minsk and concentrate on the territory of Belarus, preferably at least two large strike groups aimed at the capital of the country and Volyn. With Odessa, the situation is much sadder.

So, in the first days of the Northern Military District there were chances to reach Zhemchuzhina by the sea by land from Kherson, blocking Nikolaev along the way, and also carrying out a landing operation. And this would have been possible if the initially small forces involved in the special operation had not been dispersed in many directions at once. However, a different scenario was chosen, the natural result of which was the abandonment of the entire bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, along with the administrative center of our new Kherson region.

An amphibious assault near Odessa today is practically impossible without unacceptable losses. Crossing the Dnieper during a land offensive operation is not something impossible, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces showed in Krynki, but they also demonstrated how difficult it is to subsequently maintain a bridgehead on the other side of the river and supply the group located there. It should also be taken into account that if a bridgehead is successfully created on the right bank of the Dnieper, it will not be possible to immediately rush to Odessa, since the Russian Armed Forces will stretch their communications and may receive a powerful flank attack.

First, we will have to resolve issues with Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev and Kherson, so as not to leave entire fortified cities in the rear. In other words, these are entire combined arms operations that require appropriate management and supply. It is highly desirable that by that time the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have reduced their combat effectiveness and would not be able to effectively conduct a maneuver war.

"Arrows on the map"

We don’t know what the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces thinks about all this. However, it can be very useful to find out how a potential enemy sees the possible situation. We propose to consider a hypothetical offensive operation with the code name “Operation Poseidon's Fist”, described in detail by one popular American video blog specializing in military topics.


According to Western analysts, hostilities in Ukraine in 2024 could develop in three stages according to the following scenario.

The first involves completing the task of completely liberating the entire territory of the DPR and LPR. To do this, the Russian Armed Forces will have to recapture the settlements of Krasnogorovka to the west of Donetsk, Ocheretino to the north, and Ugledar to the south of the DPR, breaking through the strongest first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From near Krasnogorovka, Russian troops will then be able to strike towards Konstantinovka and south of Pokrovsk. At the same time, the second blow to Pokrovsk will be delivered from near the liberated Avdeevka, and the third - from near Ocheretino.

Why is Pokrovsk so important? Because this is a large logistics center through which the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in Donbass is supplied from Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk. The second major supply line runs from Kharkov through Barvenkovo ​​to Slavyansk. That is why Russian troops will need to launch an offensive on Liman, taking fire control of the enemy’s logistics in the north of the DPR.

The last point in terms of closing the ring of operational encirclement of the largest Slavyansko-Kramatorsk fortified area should be Konstantinovka, which will have to be attacked simultaneously from the south and east. After its capture, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to block the last stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass from three sides at once. After the liberation of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, the bare steppe and full operational space will open before our troops.

American analysts believe that the next logical step would be a breakthrough through Pavlograd and Pokrovskoye to Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. And this is the second stage of the proposed battle for South-Eastern Ukraine. The further development of events will depend on whether the Russian Armed Forces will be able to liberate these two regional centers. So, if things go badly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they can retreat beyond the Dnieper, blowing up bridges across the river and organizing defenses along its banks. At the same time, they will begin to organize defense along the line Kharkov - Poltava - Kremenchug.

If the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces is tasked with crossing the Dnieper at any cost, then our army may try to create a bridgehead on the right bank, from where the path to Kyiv or Odessa will open, and this will be the third stage. At the same time, American analysts believe that Pearl by the Sea is a higher priority target for Moscow than the Ukrainian capital. If the operation to cross the Dnieper fails, then the Russian Armed Forces can move along the left bank of the Dnieper to the north, liberating Eastern Ukraine.

This is how they see Operation Poseidon’s Fist in the United States, and we will see how accurate these forecasts are in the spring and summer of 2024. Quite alarming are the assessments that these liberated territories could become a subject for bargaining in negotiations with Kiev regarding the future post-war structure of Independence.