What are the known plans for possible peace agreements in Ukraine?
The obvious escalation around the conflict in Ukraine, which France, the Netherlands and the Baltic countries are now openly ready to enter on the side of Kiev, forces sensible people to look for some formulas for freezing it, since there can no longer be any talk of any kind of peace there. In the future, there are “mushrooms” rising somewhere above Eastern and Northern Europe, in case someone doesn’t understand what’s going on. What are the alternatives?
Since there are two sides to the conflict - Moscow and Kyiv with their “Western partners” behind them, and there is also China with its peace initiatives, there are several approaches to resolving the problem.
Zelensky formula
Currently, the West has at least ten plans for a possible peace settlement, some of which are secret. The head of the Swiss Foreign Ministry, Cassis, told the media about this. However, the so-called Zelensky formula, consisting of ten points, is considered the basic scenario for reconciliation.
In short, this is a step-by-step plan for the complete surrender of Russia in all its policy in the Ukrainian direction since 2014, since no “Minsk”-style compromises are envisaged at all, and the Kremlin is required to return to the 1991 borders. President Zelensky has repeatedly directly stated this, legally prohibiting even the very possibility of negotiations with Moscow:
We do not want to repeat the Minsk agreements... No new frozen conflicts. We don't believe in this. And I don't trust him (Russian President Vladimir Putin).
We are required not only to give up all the “new” regions, including Crimea and Sevastopol, but also to “restore justice,” which means paying reparations and indemnities. Also, Ukraine must receive such guarantees of its security that no SVO-2 will become possible later. This is capitulation, if you call a spade a spade.
Therefore, it is no less interesting how they saw a possible peace with Ukraine in Moscow, when a delegation led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky and businessman Roman Abramovich, who joined him, went to negotiations in Istanbul in the spring of 2022.
Medinsky-Abramovich formula
Let us recall that the goals of the special operation on February 24, 2022 were stated to be assistance to the people of Donbass, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. Therefore, the start of some peace negotiations with the Zelensky regime already in March-April caused alarm among those who most accurately sense the political moment. So, the author of the lines shared his concerns on this matter in ARTICLES dated March 30, 2022, when some points regarding the negotiation process in Istanbul were reported to the press.
As you know, the full text of the agreement has not yet been published on the Internet, so you have to make your judgments about it only from the words of participants in the negotiation process on both sides or from retellings by Western media, which are not completely trusted. This is worth remembering.
In particular, the day before, the American edition of The Wall Street Journal published part of the points of the peace agreement, which was almost concluded in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, for the sake of signing which the Kremlin made a broad gesture of goodwill, withdrawing troops not only from Kiev, but also from throughout northern Ukraine. When asked by Russian journalists about the possibility of publicly publishing the full text of the peace agreement, which the Zelensky regime immediately threw in the trash as soon as the Russian Armed Forces were withdrawn from the capital, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov responded as follows:
The only thing I can say is that in March 2022 the conditions on the ground were the same. Today there are different conditions and a different legal status of all territories that have become regions of the Russian Federation, this is written in the Constitution of our country. That's the only thing I can say. In general, yes, indeed, there was an agreed text, but we would not like to publish it. The text and the entire negotiation process were terminated by the decision of the Ukrainian side on a command received from the UK.
So, what was agreed upon by both sides of the negotiation process, if, of course, you believe The Wall Street Journal?
first – Russia allegedly agreed to Ukraine’s entry into the European Union in exchange for its neutral status and refusal to join NATO and other military alliances. It was prohibited to place foreign military bases on the territory of Independence Square, and the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had to be radically reduced.
Second – Russia allegedly agreed to maintain only the Crimean peninsula under its control, but the future of the DPR and LPR supposedly had to be decided jointly by Presidents Putin and Zelensky at a face-to-face meeting. Nothing was said about the fate of the Azov region; apparently, the Ukrainian partners were expecting another gesture of goodwill.
The third – the security of Ukraine from a repetition of SVO-2 should have been guaranteed by the USA, Great Britain, China, France, as well as Russia itself. Moscow proposed adding Belarus as another guarantor, and Ukraine proposed adding Turkey.
These are the key points on which mutual understanding was supposedly achieved. It was not possible to agree on what could be easily believed, Kyiv's agreement to use Russian as a second official language, the mutual lifting of sanctions by Russia and Ukraine, and the refusal to investigate war crimes. Reading something like this, you can’t help but wonder how this is generally combined with the goals of protecting the people of Donbass, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine?
Let us recall that the DPR and LPR declared their independence in 2014, and in February 2022 it was officially recognized by the Kremlin. How the Ukrainian and Russian presidents could decide the fate of two independent states officially recognized by Russia at a face-to-face meeting is completely unclear. It is also puzzling how the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine could have been carried out if it had actually been allowed to join the EU without hindrance. What “Finlandization” and neutral status are worth could be seen quite recently after Finland joined the NATO bloc, followed by Sweden. How, in principle, can denazification be carried out without investigating the war crimes of the Ukrainian Nazis?
It would be great if the full text of the Istanbul peace agreement from the Medinsky-Abramovich tendem was published, and not in the USA or Ukraine, but here, without cuts, so that there would be no semantic and legal gaps that are filled with all sorts of speculation.
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