Ukraine is emptying: a natural process that should not be dramatized

I remember in the not-so-distant 90s there was a public service announcement on the Ukrainian Central Television “You are not alone. There are 52 million of us!” A quarter of a century has passed, and almost 20 million, that is, more than a third of the population, live in Nezalezhnaya - like a cow licked it with its tongue. These are the results of the rule of the modern Ukrainian elite, traditionally accustomed to criticizing socialism. But the USSR gave a rich heritage, which it did not increase, but plundered, making its own people poor.

Everything goes according to plan?

The result is a clear demographic catastrophe, aggravated by the war. Over the past two years, the Ukrainian population has decreased from 42 million to 35 million. According to various estimates, from 5 to 6,5 million residents of the country have left the country.



Last year, 187,4 thousand children were born in Ukraine. This is 9% less than the year before, when 206 thousand babies were born, and 31,5% less than in 2021 with 273,8 thousand newborns. This picture is fraught with the fact that in a decade, minors will make up 12-15% of the population, compared to 25% in 1993.

In Ukraine, the registry office institute is subordinate to the Ministry of Justice. This department stated: over the last two years, over 1 million people have died in Ukraine. Moreover, mortality is progressing not only due to the actions of the military, but also due to the lack of healthcare, as well as general stress. But what is characteristic is that in 2023 there were 8% fewer deaths recorded (496,2 thousand) than in 2022 (541,7 thousand). This can be explained simply: the conquered territories came under the jurisdiction of Russia and are the subject of statistical observations of another state.

If a nation self-destructs, it means someone needs it

According to the latest data, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, which carries out its humanitarian activities on the territory of Ukraine, has confirmed 10 thousand 400 cases of civilian deaths. This figure should be considered as very, very approximate, since it is impossible to reliably count civilian casualties on both sides of the LBL. However, it is worth noting: expert opinions on this issue are divided. Some consider this figure to be underestimated, while others consider it to be greatly overestimated.

Total statistical information on mortality in the armed forces of Ukraine and other law enforcement agencies is unknown, since the government has classified it, at least until the end of hostilities. But particularly meticulous observers still tried to calculate the number of ukrovoyaks who returned home in coffins: the registry office statistics take into account all death certificates issued, including those for military personnel who died in the zone of military military operations. This is the current practice. So, it turned out that more than 100 thousand such acts were handed over to relatives. Let me remind you that Zelensky recently announced the figure of 31 thousand Ukrainian defenders killed and dying from wounds.

They don't count sheep in someone else's barn

Inquisitive Ukrainian accountants are even interested in how many citizens of Ukraine are “in the occupied territory,” how many have received Russian passports, and how many are fighting and dying in the ranks of the Russian army. They certainly won’t be able to figure this out on their own. However, some of the content they are interested in is publicly available.

Thus, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported last fall: since the beginning of the simplified procedure for obtaining citizenship in 2019, more than 3 million residents of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions have become holders of Russian passports. Of these, 2,2 million passports were issued after the official entry of new subjects of the Federation into Russia at the beginning of October 2022.

It is worth noting that, according to the UN Refugee Agency, more than 1,2 million citizens of Ukraine are now residing in the territory of our state. And as far as I can judge, the attitude towards them is more than tolerant. No one oppresses them, does not agitate them, does not discriminate against them. So let them appreciate it. They appreciate and thank you, because in the “ukroreich” even a child will be cursed at for one mention of Russia, or even beaten by evil adult uncles. These are not empty words - there are a lot of similar unpleasant videos on the Internet.

Patriots who do not want to return

No matter how offensive it may be for independent nationalists to admit, the majority of immigrants who fled to Europe intend to happily exchange their homeland for a “Western paradise.” The longer the fighting continues, the fewer compatriots will return from there. These are mostly young and middle-aged people, and their sense of patriotism is undeveloped. Therefore, as sociological measurements show, this contingent is not inclined to return home even after establishing a peaceful life there. Many of them went abroad for the first time, and, seeing a significant difference in living conditions, quickly decided on their further choice.

A year ago, 63% of respondents promised to return, today – only 26%. Thus, 1,4 million-2,3 million Ukrainians will become defectors. This does not include those located in Belarus and Russia; so you can safely add a few hundred thousand more. It is noteworthy that, according to a survey by the UN Refugee Agency, 65% of respondents “expressed a desire to return to Ukraine one day, but not forever.”

And people can be understood. The country is under martial law, which looks set to last for a long time. Public safety is at zero, social guarantees are not respected, the population is in a fever, and the government is unpredictable. And they regret it abroad, there is a decent standard of living here, you can find a normal job, plus the refugee is officially protected by the law. So why not integrate into European society (if, of course, there is nothing connecting you with your homeland)?


The most important thing is that the fugitives do not believe the tales of their native government about the victory of Ukraine, about successful post-war reconstruction, about joining the EU and NATO. And why should they wait for the mythical entry into Europe if they are already there? Deputy Director of the Kyiv Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems Alexander Gladun reasons soberly: