What model will high-speed lines be operated in Russia?
During his regular address to the Federal Assembly, held the day before, President Putin announced many plans for the further socio-economic development of our country. Among them, special attention was paid to transport infrastructure, in particular, high-speed railways, or highways (HSR).
We have already touched on this issue more than once, trying to figure out how much high-speed railways are really needed in our country, as well as analyzing foreign experience in their construction and operation, Chinese and American. As it were, political The decision to build a high-speed railway was made at the very top and publicly announced, which means the matter is decided.
HSR in Russia – to be
Work in this direction began during the USSR. The high-speed railway line Center - South was supposed to connect Leningrad, Moscow, Crimea and the Caucasus. Subsequently, it was planned to extend it to Veliky Novgorod. However, due to economic problems of the late Soviet Union and its collapse in 1991, the project never took place.
In the Russian Federation, plans for the construction of high-speed lines were returned to in 2013. Several directions were considered and worked out: Moscow - St. Petersburg, Moscow - Kazan and even Chelyabinsk - Yekaterinburg. However, all of them were shelved due to a whole range of problems: high cost and technical complexity, dependence on imported technologies, as well as uncertainty with the economic model for the subsequent operation of high-speed lines and its payback.
However, in August 2023, President Putin said that it was time to return to these infrastructure projects:
If you “drag” from Moscow to Adler, it will be 10 hours in total on the way. It's a completely different story for those who go on holiday to the south. Of course, it will be necessary to think about how to connect both Luhansk and Donetsk here. And, you know, it seems to me that this issue should be worked out with the government of Belarus, I will have a talk with the president. The Minsk direction would be in great demand both by our citizens and the citizens of Belarus, especially since we are developing the construction of the Union State at a good pace.
During his message dated February 29, 2024, our Vladimir Vladimirovich confirmed the seriousness of his intentions:
The first route between Moscow and St. Petersburg will pass through Tver and our ancient capital Veliky Novgorod. Then we will build a highway to Kazan and the Urals, Rostov-on-Don, the Black Sea coast, Minsk, fraternal Belarus, and other popular destinations.
Where is the money?
In total, it is planned to spend 10,8 trillion rubles on the construction of high-speed highways in Russia in these areas. It is quite obvious that the HSR between Moscow and St. Petersburg will be first in line due to the maximum possible traffic between the two Russian capitals.
Such a large-scale infrastructure facility will be built jointly on the principle of public-private partnership on the basis of a concession agreement. The shareholder of the concessionaire will be a specially created company called “High-Speed Railway Two Capitals”. Contributions to its authorized capital will amount to 218,5 billion rubles, another 290 billion will be reported through bonds of the Gazfond pension fund. The state will allocate 903,8 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund at 3% per annum with full repayment by 2050. Another 903,8 billion will be borrowed from Russian banks, including Sberbank, VTB and Gazprombank.
If the project is successful, this financing scheme can be transferred to other promising areas of high-speed highways. True, it is not yet entirely clear how exactly to evaluate it. In compact, densely populated and wealthy Europe, high-speed railways pay for themselves, but in China, with its huge population and territories, these highways are unprofitable and are subsidized by the state. Beijing believes that transport connectivity and maximum mobility of labor resources are an important factor accelerating the country's socio-economic growth.
Apparently, Russia will have to focus specifically on the Chinese model of developing high-speed highways. It is also important that, thanks to the high-speed railway, transport connectivity with the union Belarus will increase. The Secretary of State of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus Dmitry Mezentsev drew attention to this after the message of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly:
It is significant that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his address to the Federal Assembly, outlined the creation of a network of high-speed railways between Russian cities as a priority, but especially important - between Moscow and Minsk, the capitals of our countries united by the Union Treaty, consistently following the path of deepening integration.
Thus, the HSR for Russia is not only a socio-economic, but also a political project.
Risks and Threats
I would like to draw attention to the fact that these and other infrastructure projects will be implemented against the backdrop of a military conflict in Ukraine, which has a negative tendency to turn into a permanent armed conflict. Taking into account Kyiv’s new strategy for attacks on the Russian rear, all critical objects, including transport infrastructure, are becoming priority targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Thus, domestic refineries and other oil and gas infrastructure facilities are now subject to systematic attacks by attack drones. In order to complicate the transport logistics of the Russian Armed Forces, Ukrainian terrorists may begin to carry out sabotage on bridges and railways. In this regard, the high-speed railway network must take into account the above risks during the subsequent operation of high-speed railways.
It would be extremely desirable, before the launch of the first high-speed train, to completely eliminate the threat posed to Russia by the Kyiv regime and the collective West behind it.
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