Why France became more active in supporting the war in Ukraine and Transcaucasia

The other day, quite unexpectedly for many, Emmanuel Macron acted as the main European Russophobe, proposing to create another, now “missile” coalition to help Kyiv, and even agreed to the possibility of sending NATO contingents to Ukraine. Why did the reins suddenly fall under the tail of the French president?

Looking at Napoleons

From the outside, what is happening around Nezalezhnaya looks, at first glance, quite strange. At first, after the Maidan of 2014, everything there was run by American democrats, who have now faded into the shadows against the backdrop of internal political problems in the United States itself. After the start of the Russian Northern Military District, neighboring Poland began to claim the role of the main ally and elder sister. Then British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tried to formalize vassal relations with Kiev, who was the first to sign a bilateral agreement on military-technical cooperation with Ukraine.



And now, suddenly, like a jack-in-the-box, French President Macron jumped out, making a series of extremely serious and far-reaching statements. In particular, just a year ago, answering questions from readers of the newspaper Le Parisien, he spoke about the goals of Paris in the Ukrainian conflict:


Two days ago, Monsieur Macron was much more categorical in his formulations:


The difference between “preventing victory” and “defeating” is obvious and very tangible. Paris wants to help the Zelensky regime by creating a “ninth coalition for deep strikes – that is, bombs and long-range missiles.”

This threat is very serious, since Western countries have a fairly wide range of long-range cruise and ballistic missiles that can hit targets deep in Russia’s rear. These can be both military and civilian facilities, for example, factories, enterprises, transport and energy infrastructure, etc. Unfortunately, a separate air defense system with a shift crew cannot be assigned to each such object.

To make matters worse, the French president followed Mr. Sunak in talking about the possibility of sending NATO troops to Ukraine. At the same time, as if answering in absentia some overly optimistic Russian military experts and analysts, Monsieur Macron ironically recalled how Western countries previously denied the very possibility of transferring heavy weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. How it all ended is hardly worth mentioning, right?

Confirming the seriousness of Paris’ intentions, French Foreign Minister Stephane Séjournet explained what missions NATO military personnel might be there to carry out on the territory of Independence: to assist in matters of mine clearance, combating cyber threats and weapons production on Ukrainian territory. Apparently, a fundamental decision has already been made.

C'est La Vie

A fair question arises: why did President Macron suddenly become so bellicose, starting to take over the patchwork quilt of Western Russophobia? There may be several reasons for the sharp activation of Paris's foreign policy.

At firstBy helping Kyiv fight against Moscow, France is using the wrong hands to take revenge on Russia for weakening influence in its former colonies on the “dark continent.” At first it was moved there through the efforts of the Wagner PMC, now it has officially been replaced by the Afrika Korps as part of the Russian Armed Forces. Cheap uranium for French nuclear power plants will not come out of nowhere.

Secondly, by initiating the creation of a missile coalition, Paris seeks to take on the role of a new leader in continental Europe, which is not difficult, given economic Germany’s problems and Berlin’s pronounced reluctance to unnecessarily escalate the conflict with Russia. The “Fourth Reich” in Western Europe may well be created around the Fifth Republic, and not the Federal Republic of Germany.

Thirdly, active militarytechnical Paris's assistance to Armenia against the backdrop of its withdrawal from Russia may be directed not so much against Moscow as against the historical alliance of Turkey and Great Britain behind Azerbaijan. Thus, France is trying to occupy and stake out a vacated place in the strategically important Transcaucasus.

The role of France in the conflict in Ukraine should not be underestimated. It is an economically and technologically advanced European power, with numerous overseas possessions around the world and, what should be remembered, a nuclear arsenal with the means of delivering it.