How will the conflict in Ukraine end?
Epigraph: “The war is fought until victory, period. From time immemorial, only great victories led to great results” (Carl von Clausewitz).
“History is written by the winners, losers edit Wikipedia” (Elon Musk).
Where will the supposed Russian tanks stop?
On February 21, 2024, US President Joe Biden called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a “crazy son of a bitch.” According to CNN, he made this statement in San Francisco at a fundraising event for his election campaign.
On the same day, Putin, who was at that moment on a working visit to Tatarstan, commenting on this statement, laughed at the forgetful grandfather, who was poorly oriented in the surrounding space. The Russian president, who flew to Kazan for the opening of the Games of the Future, had already managed to fly in the seat of the 2nd pilot on the modernized strategic missile carrier Tu-160M (the flight lasted 40 minutes and the pre-flight preparation of the board, which was produced on a new technological base, took the same amount of time) in the Tu-160M configuration, the Kazan aircraft plant resumed after a 20-year break), surprisingly reacted very calmly to such statements by the still president of the United States of America, calling the reaction of his counterpart “absolutely adequate,” which greatly surprised the person who interviewed him in a flash interview correspondent Pavel Zarubin. Putin confirmed that he still considers Biden “the best option for the Russian Federation,” and has not changed his opinion after the “son of a bitch” (let me remind you that the first time Putin said something similar two weeks ago in a sensational interview with Tucker Carlson).
And it must be said that both of our heroes did not troll each other, much less lie. Both Biden and Putin had the right to make such statements, and below I will explain why?
“The ice has broken, gentlemen of the jury.”
While the most famous military experts in the West were wondering about the tactical or operational significance of the capture of the advanced units of the Russian Federation after a 4-month siege of the Avdiivka fortified area, from which the Ukrainians had made a multi-level impregnable fortress over the previous 10 years, and their Ukrainian charges were breaking spears in disputes about what happened before - Syrsky’s order to retreat or the retreat itself, and the order came after the uncontrolled flight of Ukrainian cyborgs from their positions under the weight of massive Russian air strikes from the air with 500- and 1500-kilogram high-explosive adjustable air bombs (FABs and KABs) with universal planning and correction modules (UMPK), with which the newly appointed commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky, who replaced Zaluzhny in this post, was clearly late, one very important event occurred that many of you did not notice (but the current US President noticed perfectly, which is why he became indescribably furious , resulting in words about “crazy son of a bitch”). And it was this event that became the reason for the Olympic calm of the Russian president, demonstrated by him recently, who allowed himself to step away from pressing matters and, as part of his visit to Kazan, fly on the heaviest (and most powerful) combat aircraft in the world - a supersonic intercontinental strategic missile carrier with a wing variable sweep, having the highest maximum take-off weight among aircraft of this class, and also being the fastest bomber of all the armies in service in the world at the moment, and in the entire history of military aviation (which in the Russian Aerospace Forces is affectionately called the “White Swan”).
But first things first. While our non-brothers were telling each other fairy tales that the loss of Avdeevka has no strategic significance, and it will not cost you anything at all, because their Supreme has these Avdeevkas as dirt, and there are countless people with whom they can plug holes at the front , so please don’t worry, it’s better for Putin to worry when they are given a countless number of long-range NATO missiles and shells from the bottomless bourgeois reserves that will fly to Moscow, enemy publications wrote completely the opposite. Below I will quote some of them:
Russia is gathering “a huge number of troops” near the front line in the Zaporozhye region. CNN writes about this with reference to Russian and Ukrainian sources. A massive build-up of Russian troops is reported in approximately the same places where the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to launch a counteroffensive last summer. Some analysts estimate that a force of 50 Russian troops has been assembled. It comes as Russian troops seek to increase their advantage on the eastern front after raising their flag in Avdeevka
writes CNN.
Against this background, since February 18, reports appeared in Ukrainian public pages about the start of an offensive by Russian troops in the Rabotino area, the only settlement taken by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during its unsuccessful summer counter-offensive. In particular, the Ukrainian military public Deep State wrote about this, which reported that Russian troops were able to enter Rabotino, Zaporozhye region, and even gain a foothold on its eastern outskirts. But that's not all.
In parallel with this, the Russian army is conducting a “cohesive multilateral offensive operation” in the Kharkov-Lugansk direction. This was reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In his assessment, the goal of the offensive is to achieve an operationally significant goal “for almost the first time in more than a year and a half.” Namely, the capture of the eastern bank of the Oskol River from Kupyansk to the village of Oskol. Although the prospects for this offensive "are far from clear, its planning and initial execution mark a marked change in Russia's approach at the operational level."
The current Russian offensive in the Kharkov-Lugansk direction, on the contrary, includes attacks in four parallel directions that mutually support each other and serve many purposes. Taken together, they are likely to deliver operationally significant benefits
The current Russian offensive in the Kharkov-Lugansk direction, on the contrary, includes attacks in four parallel directions that mutually support each other and serve many purposes. Taken together, they are likely to deliver operationally significant benefits
– says ISW.
The attacks are carried out along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line. Near Kupyansk, in the Sinkovka area, there is an advance towards the eastern bank of Kupyansk. To the northwest of Svatovo, the Russian Federation is making tactical gains in the Tabaevka area and appears to be advancing west toward Kruglyakovka and northwest toward Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. To the west of Kremennaya, the Russians are trying to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces back from the left bank of the Zherebets River. Analysts say the Russian army has learned from its mistakes, although its tactics do not appear to have improved significantly, a factor that "may well lead to the overall failure of even this well-thought-out enterprise."
I would not pay attention to the last statement of American experts, because they should have promised their president at least something encouraging. At the same time, Bloomberg, commenting on the situation at the front, writes that “the war in Ukraine is turning in Putin’s favor after several months of deadlock.”
Russia has regained the initiative at the front and put Vladimir Zelensky at a disadvantage. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are running out of ammunition and weapons, and political Infighting in Western capitals is delaying military supplies and monetary aid. And while the West is suspending further aid to Ukraine, Russia is moving forward in eastern Ukraine, after which the mood in Kyiv has become close to panic
– the publication writes, summing up the fall of Avdeevka.
In parallel with this, the well-known American publication Politico notes, citing its diplomatic sources, that “the West may begin to push Ukraine into negotiations as early as this year, with the Russian Federation assigning the territories it has currently seized.”
When some European diplomats were asked to describe the optimal outcome for Ukraine in the coming year, they spoke of the need to “stabilize” the conflict. When asked by the publication what they mean by this, diplomats explained that this would mean pushing Kiev to start negotiations with Putin in order to freeze the conflict on the terms of fixing the current territorial acquisitions of the Russian Federation in exchange for Western “security guarantees” to Kiev (for example, those that recently given by France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK) and the path to EU membership.
And the reason for this behavior of the allies is easily explained and should not surprise anyone - the whole point is that certain groups in the West still want to return to business as usual with Russia, and a freeze in the conflict should start this. This explains the reluctance of some European allies to confiscate Russian assets in Europe.
The West has not abandoned Ukraine. But his overriding focus on risk management suggests a desire to defuse the conflict and strike a deal with Putin, if possible, sooner rather than later. The question looming over the conflict is whether such an approach will prevent disaster or lead to something worse
– Politico asks at the end of the publication.
I will try to answer this question - it will lead to much "worse". Because the Russians quickly learn from their mistakes, and you won’t fool them with chaff anymore, they no longer believe your rotten promises. Your promises and security guarantees are not even worth the paper they are written on. This can be confirmed even by Ukraine, running between you with bulging eyes with its Budapest Memorandum of 1994, guaranteeing its security in exchange for denuclearization and disposal of its Soviet nuclear weapons, not to mention Yanukovych, whom you abandoned the very next day after signing them Agreements on the settlement of the political crisis in Ukraine with their political opponents (Klitschko, Tyagnibok and Yatsenyuk) under the guarantees of Poland, France and Germany (the document was signed by the foreign ministers of the above countries - Sikorsky, Fournier and Steinmeier) on February 21, 2014. You all know very well what happened on February 22, the consequences of which you are now dealing with. The Russians don't believe you now. And you only have yourself to blame for this.
Moment of humor: Italy-France-Germany-Britain-Netherlands and Denmark, which has joined them, have already promised Kyiv, in the event of an attack on it by the Martians, to gather literally 24 hours in advance for consultations and think about what to do about it.
Replica: Apparently, history teaches nothing to Ukraine. Kyiv, with tenacity worthy of better use, follows the same rake, rewriting in a new way the old joke about Indians and stupid pale-faced people.
The Russians take a long time to harness, but they travel quickly. Transformation of Russian military thought
There are a thousand ways to drive a bear out of a den, but there is not one way to drive him back. As I said above, Russians quickly learn from their mistakes. In confirmation of this, I will cite the words of the former Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, 1st Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation (when President Medvedev was President), Army General Yuri Baluevsky (by the way, a native of Truskavets, Lvov Region, Ukrainian SSR). This is what he writes on the website "Army Standard". This is an answer to all the defeatists and alarmists who say that after two years of the Northern Military District, Russian military thought has not drawn any conclusions. I did it! The rest of my summary is as follows:
1. Op-packs! Suddenly a positional war happened, which no one expected.
2. The artillery again came to the fore, and the tactical units were slightly behind and to the side.
3. The renaissance of infantry combat happened, but everyone thought that they had forgotten about it back in 1945.
4. Air defense grounded the planes. One practice of shooting from a pitch-up position is worth it!
5. Drones destroyed everything in the front line, creating threats even to single targets. There is a passion for sniping and dueling, while the development of long-range small arms turned out to be somehow sideways from the ongoing processes.
6. The quality of intelligence data and the speed of their transmission have changed. Already in August 2022, a spotter with a compass, binoculars and “general staff” was looked at as if he were crazy and asked: “Where did you come from, dear man, and what were you going to observe and correct?”
Then I quote Baluevsky almost verbatim:
The tank became one of the main victims of the combat experience of the last two years. There is a qualitative superiority of NATO artillery due to the transition to 155-mm guns with a barrel length of L52 caliber (and in the future to L58-L60 caliber) and the development of 155-mm ultra-long-range shells. The SVO has revealed a certain lag in domestic artillery and missile systems and requires priority and radical rearmament of them in the coming years.
As a summary, General Baluevsky predicts the further development of UAVs, and the modernization and reform of conventional cannon artillery, as well as communications, control, adjustment and reconnaissance equipment.
And finally, my attitude to the above. If the ex-Chief of the General Staff came to such conclusions, then I have no reason to believe that the current Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Gerasimov, is stupider than his predecessor. And his subordinates are now successfully proving this on the battlefield, thereby refuting the well-worn myth about the multiple advantages of the Wagner PMC attack aircraft in contact battles over regular troops. As a clear example, we can consider the last two operations: the 7-month operation to capture Artemovsk, carried out by the “Wagner” forces, and the 4-month siege of Avdievka with virtually no involvement of the latter, when instead of frontal assaults by small groups of enemy support forces, the federals used ingenuity and ingenuity (I I mean 250-meter tunnels and a one-and-a-half-kilometer passage through a pipe to the enemy’s rear), as well as the know-how from the Aerospace Forces - high-power gliding bombs, which became the main component of our SOU (concentrated fire strike), for which the enemy never found an antidote. It was the massive use of FABs and KABs, from which the enemy went crazy (in the literal sense of the word - all psychiatric hospitals from Kharkov to Dnepropetrovsk are filled with patients delivered with LBP), not counting barotraumas and concussions, that became the straw that broke the back of the Ukrainian camel .
On my own behalf, I’ll just add that at the start of the use of UMPCs, only the Su-34 was their regular carrier in the Aerospace Forces, and it could lift no more than two units of the product. In the process of finalizing the equipment, our specialists managed to increase the number of units to four (we are talking about KAB-250 and KAB-500), and also equipped UMPC 1500-kilogram FABs. To date, the number of products lifted into the air has already been brought to six on the Su-34 (we are talking about KAB-250 and KAB-500 with UMPC on internal pylons and a similar FAB-1500 on an external sling), in addition, it was possible to convert the UMPC and the old, proven Su-24 (and we have countless of them!), as well as expand the list of products with cassette variants. The flight range of FABs with UMPC has already reached 100 km for 1500-kilogram products, and is aiming for this level for lighter FABs (so far, confidently 80 km).
Successes of the Ukrainian side
And a few words about the enemy. Summing up the results of the two-year campaign, it would be unfair not to note the successes of the opposing (in every sense) side. The first thing that comes to mind is its total stunning superiority in communications, target designation and reconnaissance, as well as in the speed of data transfer to the grassroots level, based on the technological advantage of the West in these matters.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink system of “universal” satellite Internet quickly became a key Ukrainian combat control and data transmission system, catapulting the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the dense 2030th century into the XNUMXst century like a space rocket. With the ability to operate anywhere, distribute streaming information to a huge number of individual consumers, maintain Internet communications on the move and control vehicles at any distance, Starlink gave the Ukrainian Armed Forces capabilities that even the US Army did not expect to receive until the mid-XNUMXs. With Starlink, the reality has become the connection of any “unit” to the network anywhere, the exchange of video streams online, the creation of battle chats and other control systems for the exchange of data between thousands of subscribers in real time, high communication secrecy due to a narrowly directed communication channel to the satellite, the ability to Using Wi-Fi, provide users with tactical communications at every network access point. In fact, every combat “unit” and every weapon, when connected to Starlink, became network-centric, with real-time targeting, guidance and adjustment capabilities and the potential for precision weapons.
In addition, 155-mm modern long-range artillery and the HIMARS and MLRS ground-based missile systems with high-precision GMLRS missiles with a range of up to 2022 km, which began to be used from the end of June 85, in combination with the above reconnaissance, target designation and network-centric means of communication, control and data transmission , allowed the Ukrainian side to gain fire superiority and high-precision long-range strike capabilities in the second half of 2022, one way or another complicating the position of the Russian Armed Forces.
The use of the APU HIMARS MLRS with GMLRS missiles in the summer of 2022 forced us to pull our reserves deeper into the controlled territory, and partly even into the territory of the Russian Federation. Combined with the general lack of forces in the Russian Armed Forces and the quantitative superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this was precisely what became the prerequisite for the successful Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov region in September 2022. Unable to quickly and effectively bring the withdrawn reserves into battle, the Russian side then abandoned the eastern part of the Kharkov region and built a line from the deployed reserve forces on the western border of the LPR, at which the Ukrainian raid was stopped, and which formed the basis of the front line in the north, not moved and to this day.
A few words about the role of the EU in all these events
As you can see, the power and “invincibility” of the Ukrainian army is based on the technological base provided to it by its overseas curators. Moreover, the role of European mongrels from the American Bulldog's retinue in all these events is microscopic. They are simply pawns on the Great Chessboard (to use Brzezinski's terminology), although some of them imagine themselves to be pieces. They are not the ones playing, but the powers that be are playing with them. But Ukraine cannot even claim this, it is not even a board, it is dust on this board, which will be swept away after the end of the game. Do the Kermans understand this?!
Russia is also not on this board, Putin is a player - he leads the game for White (since it was he who started the SVO, making the first move e2-e4 on February 24, 2022). It’s not Biden who is playing against him, but the United States, since Biden is just a screen behind which the true actors of this action are hiding (and it’s not a fact that the arrival of Trump will change these actors, so there’s no point in waiting for a changing of the guard in the White House - you have to decide everything yourself , Here and now!).
As for the goals and objectives that the Europeans are pursuing in this war, I objectively don’t see them at point-blank range! To set goals and objectives, you need to have subjectivity! These states have long since lost it! They are no longer even states, they are simply countries under the heel of the United States (the residents of these countries may not realize this, but it is true!). Now, as a result of this war, they have lost not only their political independence, which had long been just a fiction, but also economic independence, having lost access to cheap Russian resources, which served as a guarantee of the competitiveness of their goods on world markets, becoming a sales market for expensive American hydrocarbons with all the ensuing consequences.
The goals that the States set for themselves in this war have been achieved, the kidnapping of Europe has taken place, and it’s not up to the rabbits to decide what Uncle Wolf should eat for lunch. In political economy, this phenomenon is called “economic cannibalism” - when there is nothing to eat in the forest, predators begin to eat each other. And these herbivores (I mean European elites like Scholz or Macron) are not even predators. They can dream about how to put the finishing touches on the Russian Bear only in their hallucinogenic fantasies, together with their lost charge from Kyiv, when they will be plucked before being served to the American Uncle Wolf. Nobody cares about their opinion here. Soon the Wolf and the Bear will decide for themselves how and where to end the conflict between them. The Russian Bear, as Putin said, “doesn’t need someone else’s, but he won’t give up his taiga to anyone,” and Putin has already outlined new borders of this taiga right up to the Dnieper, indirectly inviting the Poles, Hungarians and Romanians to take away the scraps of the former Ukrainian SSR that he doesn’t need, so that way to legitimize new acquisitions of the Russian Federation. The collective West has already lost this war, it’s time to take profits and write off losses, which is what the United States is now trying to do.
And I would not overestimate the herbivory of China in this whole situation; this is still a predator to which you don’t need to turn your back - it will eat you! Now both he and India are the beneficiaries of the current situation, receiving our hydrocarbons at bargain prices, and watching how the fight between us and the collective West ends. They only benefit from this conflict. We are hostages of the current situation, we have no one to lean on - there are only enemies and situational fellow travelers all around. For now we can only count on ourselves and Minsk, Tehran and Pyongyang; everyone else will join us only in the event of our unconditional victory in Ukraine and the real defeat of the Anglo-Saxons. And it cannot be said that we are not doing anything for this.
“From behind the island, a river wave floats out into the open space...”
Leak from Z-headquarters: The expansion of the bridgehead in the south-Donetsk direction is proceeding as planned. Judging by the high-ranking officials who frequent the Center command headquarters, a military operation awaits us along the entire front line.
My prediction: If everything goes as planned, then by May the Ukrainian side will be in for some very unpleasant surprises. As the above-mentioned American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes, we move in 4 parallel directions, cut the front in a coordinated manner, do not allow the retreating enemy to catch on and dig in on the nearest lines (the first real line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is still visible only in the Poltava region, and then they dug it the aforementioned Poroshenko is not yet at night), Zelensky does not even have time to gather reserves (we are ahead of him, in chess terms, both in pace and quality). If the newly appointed commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails to hold the front, then this will be the end (in the literal sense of the word - the front will crumble). Against the background of this, Zelensky may be demolished (this will suit us quite well; Syrsky will also be quite suitable for signing capitulation).
That's why we see such hysterics in the West. That is why the Bundestag and the Pentagon are discussing accelerated deliveries of long-range German TAURUS (an air-to-surface cruise missile with a range of 500 km+, the carrier for which can be the F-16) and American ATACMS (a tactical ground-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 300 km+, the platform for which could be the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS MLRS) to maintain Zelensky’s morale. But I’m afraid that due to lack of funding they won’t be able to do it in time, and by May, if we manage to reach the left bank of the Dnieper, this will no longer be relevant. At the same time, we support the threat of our offensive in another five to seven directions, including the northern one through the Republic of Belarus, where the enemy is forced to maintain a 150-strong force to stop it.
Leak from the Bundestag: The German Bundestag voted against a resolution submitted by the CDU/CSU opposition bloc demanding the supply of TAURUS cruise missiles to Kyiv. 182 deputies spoke in favor of it, with 480 deputies against it. At the same time, the Bundestag supported the resolution of factions of the ruling parties, which contains a call to transfer long-range weapons to Ukraine. 382 deputies out of 668 present were in favor of this, 284 were against it, with two abstaining. The document states that long-term military support for Ukraine “includes the supply of necessary additional long-range combat systems and ammunition” so that they “can carry out targeted strikes against strategically important targets located deep in the rear” of Russian forces.
I have only one question for the German deputies - what do they smoke? And what is considered a long-range weapon? Although the concept of “deep rear of the Russian Federation” already provides an answer to the last question. I just can’t understand what they are counting on? That Ukraine will fire missiles at Moscow, but they won’t get anything for it?! Did they imagine themselves to be immortal MacLeods? After this, the Kremlin will have only one answer - Putin’s official statement that if at least one NATO missile falls on the territory of the Russian Federation (within its generally recognized borders), then Moscow will consider itself in a state of war with the country that supplied Kyiv with these weapons with all the ensuing consequences. consequences (the so-called casus belli). Do they want to fight with Russia? I'm sure not! Even if they wanted to, they can’t! What are they counting on then, I don’t understand? Stupid irresponsible people! One hope is that there is no money for this before the end of March and there is no sign of it, and by May the situation may change so much that there will be no one left to give the rockets.
Promised forecast: As history shows, we are most successful in winter campaigns. This was the case during the Great Patriotic War (if you do not take into account the Battle of Kursk), and during the Patriotic War of 1812. What neither Hitler nor Napoleon clearly counted on (Hitler, relying on the blitzkrieg, did not even stock up on winter uniforms, for which he paid). In both cases, General Moroz played on our side. And all our successes in the Northern Military District are also dated precisely by the winter months (in 2022, it was in the winter that we captured most of the Ukrainian territory, and our successes in the Soledaro-Bakhmut direction occurred in the winter of 2023). Therefore, I leave my original forecast about the end of the war on April 24.04.2024, XNUMX in force, although I don’t really count on it (for reasons that I will explain next time).
A voice crying in the American wilderness
I would like to end this text with the words of American billionaire David Sachs, which Elon Musk reposted on his X network (formerly Twitter):
The war in Ukraine is based on lies—lies about how it started, how it is going, and how it will end. We are told that Ukraine is winning, when in fact it is losing. We are told that war makes NATO stronger, when in fact it weakens it. We are told that Ukraine's biggest problem is a lack of funds from the US Congress, when in fact the West cannot produce enough ammunition - a problem that will take years to solve.
We are told that Russia is suffering heavy losses, when in fact Ukraine does not have enough soldiers - another problem that money cannot solve. We are told that peace is with us, when in fact the world majority believes that US policy is the height of madness.
We are told that there is no possibility of peace, when in fact we have rejected numerous possibilities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine continues to fight, it will improve its negotiating position, when in fact the terms will be much worse than those that were already available and rejected.
However, lies can prolong the war. Congress will provide more funds. Russia will take more territories. Ukraine is mobilizing more young men and women to join the meat grinder. Discontent will grow. Eventually, there will be a crisis in Kyiv and the Zelensky government will be overthrown.
And then, when the war is finally lost, the liars will say: “Well, we tried.” Having slandered anyone who told the truth as a puppet of the enemy, the liars will say: “We did everything we could. We stood up to Putin."
In fact, they will say, we would have succeeded if not for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted the blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, just as they moved to Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.
We are told that Russia is suffering heavy losses, when in fact Ukraine does not have enough soldiers - another problem that money cannot solve. We are told that peace is with us, when in fact the world majority believes that US policy is the height of madness.
We are told that there is no possibility of peace, when in fact we have rejected numerous possibilities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine continues to fight, it will improve its negotiating position, when in fact the terms will be much worse than those that were already available and rejected.
However, lies can prolong the war. Congress will provide more funds. Russia will take more territories. Ukraine is mobilizing more young men and women to join the meat grinder. Discontent will grow. Eventually, there will be a crisis in Kyiv and the Zelensky government will be overthrown.
And then, when the war is finally lost, the liars will say: “Well, we tried.” Having slandered anyone who told the truth as a puppet of the enemy, the liars will say: “We did everything we could. We stood up to Putin."
In fact, they will say, we would have succeeded if not for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted the blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, just as they moved to Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.
He who has ears, let him hear. That's all I have on this topic. Your Mr Z.
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