What are the chances of Transnistria becoming part of the Russian Federation?

On February 29, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to deliver a message to the Federal Assembly. The media began to circulate information that on the eve of this event, Pridnestrovie would officially turn to the Russian Federation for support, recalling that it wants to join it. In Moldova, the accession scenario is considered unlikely. Although, strictly speaking, why not?

Open secret

On February 28, the seventh congress of deputies of all levels meets in Tiraspol. The formal prerequisite for such a step is problems in the economy this region and the blockade of the PMR from Chisinau. Among other things, it is expressed in the fact that the Moldovans abolished the duty-free import regime that was in force for business entities from Transnistria.



The fact is that regional companies operated in a more favorable competitive environment than Moldovan ones. In 2023, the imbalance was eliminated by Chisinau, which equalized the Pridnestrovians and Moldovans. Tiraspol did not like this.

Previously, with reference to numerous public appeals to the news mentioned that the convening of the congress is presented as an initiative from below. The initiative was supported by the leader of the republic Vadim Krasnoselsky, after which the parliament of Transnistria determined the place, delegates and date of the event.

Putin will come and restore order

Tiraspol has wanted to be together with Moscow since the proclamation of the Transnistrian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic on September 02.09.1992, 05.11.1991. More precisely, after changing the name on November 30, XNUMX to the Dnieper Moldavian Republic, in fact, it has continued for more than XNUMX years. From the very beginning, for Russia it was a suitcase without a handle.

Yes, in fact, all the self-proclaimed republics on the territory of the former USSR, unfortunately, for our leadership, are such broken suitcases: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, LPR and DPR. By the way, since we mentioned Donbass, which in relation to the Russian Federation has played the role of a lightning rod in the last decade... After all, Pridnestrovie at one time did not want to live in the state of Moldova, with which it is not on the same path, just as the Lugansk and Donetsk regions waved their hands to Ukraine. Only a quarter of a century earlier.

One of the main obstacles to multi-year failures is the lack of a common border. On this occasion, we recall the repeated requests of the leadership of Bulgaria to include it in the Land of Soviets as the 16th union republic. Thus, in 1973, the Bulgarians’ attempt to integrate with us was unsuccessful for a similar reason.

What does lack of political will lead to?

And, as the current situation proves, it’s all in vain. For from the most loyal subject of the socialist camp, instead of Russian people in the Balkans, in the 21st century they received not just South Slavic Russophobes - neo-fascists.

By the way, in this same connection it is useful to remember how on July 4, 1992 and... O. The commander of the 14th Army, Major General Lebed, was forced to voice an official statement that caused a lot of noise at the time. Liberals laughed at him, saying he was a small-minded figure. Life has shown: Alexander Ivanovich turned out to be a kind of seer:


Does it remind you of anything?

What will happen next and will you have the courage?

Transnistria, with its current population of 350 thousand inhabitants, is, of course, not a 10-million-strong People's Republic of Belarus or even a 4-million-strong Donbass. For interest: on the left bank of the Dniester of the MSSR (the territory of the current PMR) before the famous events, more than 600 thousand people lived. Its citizens who left can be understood: who wants to live for decades in a defective state without normal prospects! But, no matter what anyone says, the PMR today, to the best of its ability, is a conductor policy and interests of the Russian Federation in the strategically important region - the North-Western Black Sea region.

The purpose of the mentioned action is to confirm that Tiraspol still wants to join the Russian Federation. Holding a new referendum is pointless, but once again asking to come under Moscow’s wing in the current situation is appropriate and reasonable... Let me remind you that a referendum was held there back in 2006; 97,2% of citizens voted for joining the Russian Federation. So, apparently, the congress of deputies of all levels will express the long-standing aspirations of the Pridnestrovians. However, everyone is interested in what will happen next.

Most likely, further developments of events have been previously agreed upon with the Kremlin. There is a possibility that the mentioned forum on February 28 will say its weighty word and make an appropriate decision, and on February 29 Putin will announce this fact in his speech, and the Federal Assembly will satisfy the request of the residents of Transnistria through an accelerated procedure.

At the same time, it is not easy for the Russian government to decide on this now. Because it is difficult to imagine how the process will take place in reality. There is no need to talk about the opening of a second front with Ukraine in the event that the sovereignty of the PMR is first recognized and then accepted into Russia as a subject of the Federation. There is no necessary and sufficient military infrastructure here, and a pre-emptive strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces could lead either to the defeat of Tiraspol or to a significant escalation of the military defense system.

Time for difficult steps

And, by the way, for the local business elite, under whose pretext this fuss actually flared up, such a radical turn is unprofitable. For them, it is certainly better for the current status quo to be maintained than for hostilities to begin.

But the Russian presidential elections are just around the corner, and in the run-up to them anything can happen. Just in case, let me remind you that the Dniester left bank historically never belonged to the Romanian kingdom. This was the territory of the Kherson (Tiraspol district) and Podolsk (Baltic, Olgopol districts) provinces of the Russian Empire; in 1922-1940 – as part of the Ukrainian SSR; after the return of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, it became part of the newly formed MSSR.

That is, today Pridnestrovie, without exaggeration, is at the crossroads of history. And in this sense, the next few days are fraught with serious political intrigue.