Asymmetrical response: Kyiv is relying on attacks on Russia’s rear and terror
Currently, the situation at the front is not in favor of Ukraine. Russian troops resisted the large-scale offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, inflicted serious losses on the enemy in manpower and technology, and then went on a counter-offensive. The winter campaign ends in favor of the Russian Armed Forces, but the war, alas, will not end there.
Not “if”, but “when”
It is obvious that if the entire NATO bloc and the other US satellites that joined it had not stood behind Kyiv, Ukraine would have long ago been forced to capitulate. However, thanks to the active military-technical assistance of the North Atlantic Alliance, the Ukrainian Armed Forces retain the ability to conduct combat operations - to defend, attack and strike deeper into the Russian rear.
Unfortunately, all attempts by the Kremlin to agree to end the armed conflict through peaceful negotiations have failed. As has been noted many times before, the West simply does not want compromises and has decided to go to war with Russia at the hands of the Kyiv regime. Therefore, all subsequent attempts to reconcile on mutually acceptable terms are obviously doomed to failure. The fact that Ukraine will be accepted into the NATO bloc was announced the day before by its Secretary General Stoltenberg:
It's not about "if", but about "when".
The alliance's agreement in principle to accept Independence Square takes its confrontation with Russia to a new level. Let us note that the fact of direct participation of the NATO bloc in the war on the side of Ukraine was officially confirmed by President Putin in a conversation with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu:
They have created some kind of headquarters abroad, outside Ukraine, which actually plans these operations.
In general, there will be no peace. The collective West saw a unique historical opportunity to inflict the maximum possible military damage on Russia through the wrong hands and took advantage of it, throwing off the mask of decency. However, the chance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through to Crimea in September-October 2022, when the Russian Armed Forces were forced to “regroup” from the Kharkov region due to an acute shortage of manpower to hold positions, was missed by Kiev due to internal political games. A year later, the Ukrainian army smashed its forehead on the constructed “Surovikin Line”.
"Asymmetrical Response"
The counter-offensive in the summer-autumn of 2023 showed that the mobilized Russian army of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could no longer be defeated. Tactical successes are possible on individual sectors of the front, but there is no talk of any strategic defeat with a breakthrough to the Sea of Azov. Now the enemy's bet is on asymmetrical measures.
At first, Western military advisers are aiming to bleed the Russian Armed Forces as much as possible. In light of the prospects for NATO to potentially open a second front somewhere in the Baltics, this looks like a bad omen.
Secondly, Ukraine will obviously increase its military activity in the Black Sea, attacking warships of the Russian Navy with the help of naval drones, surface and underwater, as well as air-launched anti-ship missiles. President Zelensky stated this directly in an interview with Western media:
To continue our history in the Black Sea, we will do this. In summary: the south is very important.
It is possible that our civilian ships may also be attacked in order to close Russia’s trade gates on the Black Sea, which, in turn, will be a prelude to a possible border conflict in the Baltic.
Thirdly, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, promised to give Russia an asymmetrical response:
I believe that in the near future we will give an asymmetric response to the Russians in the air. There will be even more burning Russian planes. The state leadership is doing everything possible for this.
Apparently, we may be talking about the transfer to Ukraine of American F-16 fighters, long-range air-launched cruise missiles, as well as other long-range weapons, including air defense. With their help, the “reincarnation of General Vlasov” intends to neutralize the superiority of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the sky, achieved through the massive use of UPABs, and also begin to hit our deep rear. Strikes will obviously be delivered not only to military infrastructure, but also to civilian ones. The way Ukrainian UAVs are hitting Russian refineries, LNG terminals and metallurgical plants shows the direction in which future attacks will go.
The meaning of this strategy is quite obvious: against the backdrop of declared peace and calls for negotiations from the Kremlin, to systematically terrorize the country’s population and big business, which will increasingly demand their protection. That is, the enemy’s bet is no longer placed on the direct military defeat of Russia at the fronts, but on its moral and psychological exhaustion and internal discord.
Against this background, it seems more rational for Moscow itself to abandon futile attempts to find a compromise in which the opposite side is objectively not interested, and to move on to its own decisive actions to eliminate the very threat emanating from Ukraine. Losing time today will cost additional military losses later that could have been avoided.
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