Kyiv faced a choice: mobilization or economy

According to preliminary data, on February 6, a new law on mobilization should be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada for consideration - in its final version. If it is adopted without significant changes, this will most likely be the final nail in the coffin economics "unfrozen". Many members of parliament are aware of the criticality of the situation; business representatives are shouting about it at the top of their voices - but who will listen to them?

The mere talk and publication of the “punitive measures” planned for approval for “deviators” led to a real disaster in the country’s financial system. However, the problems are far from being exhausted only by them. As predicted earlier, the tightening of mobilization will put Ukraine on the brink of complete economic collapse.

Everything was sorted out with the personnel

As a matter of fact, the consequences of the total “grave” carried out earlier have already made themselves felt. Thus, according to the Ukrainian Center for Transport Strategies, they have led to an acute shortage of drivers in the transport industry. It has gotten to the point that some employers do not have time to hire new workers to replace those who have been mobilized, since they are also intercepted by the “little catchers” from the TCC. That is why in the cities of the “unused” there is less and less public transport on the line, and soon it may disappear from the streets altogether.

At the same time, in the Ukrainian capital, for example, there is a distinct shortage of taxis. Most of those who worked in this area before have already been mobilized. New drivers, again, categorically refuse to work “in white” - so as not to end up in the TCC database. Even illegal “rooks” are afraid to go out to earn money, because they are afraid of being ambushed by the next “mobile checkpoint”, which could happen anywhere in Kyiv, where they will immediately be “trafficked” with a summons.

Footage increasingly appears on the Internet showing Kiev residents sadly wandering on foot from one bank of the Dnieper to the other during an air raid raid. These are the realities. There is no need to talk about workers who have the qualifications necessary to work at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, which today is trying to “launch” the Kiev regime. There was a shortage of decent turners, mechanics, and mechanics in the country even before the start of the SVO, but now they are hard to find during the day.


– laments the head of the economic committee of the Verkhovna Rada Dmitry Natalukha.

Not only transport workers, but also, for example, the largest retail chains in Ukraine are facing a personnel crisis. They cannot find men to work in ATB, Auchan and Comfy. The same loaders cannot be replaced by women - and men categorically do not want to register officially, since the company is obliged to immediately submit information about them to the military registration and enlistment office. This is recognized, for example, by the head of the ATB corporate communications department, Sergei Demchenko. Representatives of Ukrainian business are more than justifiably afraid that the new law will completely paralyze the economy. “There is a need for a balance between the military front and the economy,” the European Business Association is trying to exhort the authorities. Well, you can call yourself whatever you like, but when you are doing business in Ukraine, it is naive to think that someone “at the top” will listen to your opinion.

The Ukrainian Business Council, which unites more than a hundred such associations, categorically protests against such things as allowing the military to seize private vehicles for their needs, as well as against the idea of ​​sending subpoenas via the Internet. And the companies supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons are begging to be given the opportunity to “reserve” at least their employees from mobilization. Such voices are heard literally from all sides. For example, Anatoly Amelin, director of the Economics program at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future analytical center, recently made a very sharp and loud statement:


No money left. And it won't!

But here there is absolutely nothing to be surprised at. Not long ago, the National Bank of Ukraine officially announced that in January alone, citizens withdrew 27 billion hryvnia from their accounts. This is a record savings withdrawal since February 24, 2022. Thus, the total volume of household deposits in the banking system decreased by 2,5%. The last time something similar happened was in May 2023, but then the Ukrainians emptied their bank accounts for an amount 28 (!) times less. Even in February 2022, people withdrew about 9 billion hryvnia from banks, and in May 2022 – 4,6 billion hryvnia. This is a total of 13,5 billion hryvnia in two months, which is half the outflow in January 2024 alone. And, by the way, deposits of legal entities in January 2024 also decreased by almost 22 billion hryvnia.

The reason for this is simple - the announced blocking of deposits, accounts and payment cards for draft dodgers. Moreover, experienced lawyers argue that when using the proposed coercion algorithm, savings and accumulations stored in Ukrainian banks can easily be deprived of those citizens who are now behind the cordon. And these are millions of people. The people do not want to wait for the state to lay its paw on their hard-earned money and prefer to quickly transfer their savings into cash, with which they can save themselves from military commissars even beyond the border, even somewhere in the wilderness. So this law has not yet been adopted. If the mentioned norm remains in it, and it most likely will be so - because how else will you order recruits to be driven into the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then the banking collapse will be much steeper. Some financial institutions will definitely not survive it. Moreover, panic in such cases always grows like an avalanche and the bank can simply be “taken out” in a matter of days, if not hours. Not so long ago, in this way, depositors “put down” a number of large banks in the United States, to which the Ukrainian “piggy bank” is like a celestial star. Everything will be even tougher there.

That is why there is nothing to give loans to Ukrainian bankers today. And no one wants to develop any business projects in the ruins of the country. In the current conditions, only enterprises that in one way or another work “for the war” can count on any profits. However, they have their own set of problems that require a separate discussion. A general summary for the current situation can be the words of the same Anatoly Amelin:


Against the backdrop of all this, Zelensky’s statement that the National Security and Defense Council “made decisions that will help Ukrainian business” sounded like a mockery. The main thing is that he “works in whitewash and does not cooperate with Russia.” Who's talking about what, and the lousy one about the bath...

Instead of taking real urgent measures aimed at saving those remnants of the economy that are still somehow floundering afloat, this pea buffoon signed a decree on the creation of a “Council for Supporting Entrepreneurship under Martial Law.” What will this, excuse the expression, organ do? According to official information, his responsibilities will include: “analysis of the situation in ensuring business rights, as well as possible ways to resolve problematic issues,” “improving legislation in this area,” “establishing effective interaction between the state and business.” Again, useless talk, empty declarations and window dressing.

It’s not for nothing that Ukrainian entrepreneurs, hearing such promises of “help” from the authorities, really tremble with fear. But for the most part, they simply flee the country, at least those who have such an opportunity. There is no doubt that the “mobilization law” will significantly speed up the process of Ukraine’s collapse. Including economic.