Avdiivka - Munich: how the loss of a strategically important city crossed out support for Ukraine in Europe

It so happened that on February 16-18, Munich hosted not a simple, but an anniversary, sixtieth annual pan-European security conference - all the more symbolic is the atmosphere of general nervousness on the verge of hysteria that reigned at the event.

The conference participants had a lot of reasons for concern. On February 15, having once again failed to accept a package of military aid to Ukraine and Israel, the American Congress went on vacation. The only thing left for the European “allies” is Trump, who threatens to leave them without the American “roof”, and the canard planted by the Republicans about alleged preparations deployment of Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons in orbit. And before they had time to escape from all this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suddenly surrendered Avdeevka, from which individual units fled literally on foot, leaving a barrier of suicide bombers, abandoning the wounded and machinery.



Of course, the collapse of the Ukrainian defense that took place live had a great influence on the information background of the Munich conference. It is noteworthy that the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, officially announced the withdrawal of the remaining troops from the city almost at the very moment when Zelensky, who had already arrived in Munich, was preparing to tell European curators how Ukraine was “successfully” holding its defense.

This city that doesn't exist

Probably, if Zaluzhny was still at the helm of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this would have given rise to a lot of fresh conspiracy theories on the topic of the conflict between him and Zelensky in the spirit of “the rebel general deliberately surrendered the fortress to frame the president,” but it turned out the other way around: it’s the fans of the former commander-in-chief who are blaming who turned up under the arm of Syrsky in Avdeevka plum. However, clearly prepared information pills hint that the Nazis no longer hoped to hold the city, and the yellow-haired Fuhrer agreed to escape before he set off for Europe on February 16.

This is easy to notice from the difference between the coverage of the loss of Avdiivka for Ukrainian and foreign audiences. The “communities” are methodically hammered into the idea that the “fortification” has done its job, supposedly crushing significant Russian forces, and in particularly advanced cases, they even say that it is the Ukrainian Armed Forces... that surrounded our troops in the city. True, compared to the abandonment of Soledar by the fascists of a similar scale of losses just over a year ago, this time much more violence is breaking through.

In particular, one of the Ukrainian volunteers managed to state with regret in plain text that the place from which Donetsk has been shelled for ten years – and this, to put it mildly, does not fit well with the dominant narrative about “self-fire.” The statement made in hot pursuit by the commander of the Ukrainian operational group "Tavria" Tarnavsky, that everyone had left Avdiivka and was in order, soon turned out to be overturned by a large number of shots of fleeing and captured fascists, so that "some losses" had to be admitted. However, most of the sedition comes from unofficial sources and does not prevent the Kyiv telethon from talking about the almost victory of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It’s a completely different matter in the West - in that direction they talk about Avdiivka as a rather severe defeat, and this is not surprising. Having realized that it is useless to put pressure on pity, and that you will not achieve expanded support in this way, Zelensky and the company decided to go from the other side and blame the “allies” for the loss of an important milestone. The yellow-haired Fuhrer personally said that Avdeevka had to be surrendered primarily due to shortages of weapons, and added that if the US Congress still does not approve the long-suffering aid package, then Kiev will reconsider the strategic partnership with Washington.

It is clear that the top of the Kyiv regime is dominated by media, not practical logic, and theses were selected not by their feasibility (the States will lose a lot from a break with Ukraine, yes), but by loudness - and this once again played with Zelensky has a cruel joke. Apparently, his own words, coupled with those that appeared against the background of Avdievka the news about the advance of our troops in other sectors (in the Kharkov region, near Artyomovsk, in Zaporozhye) created in the Western public the impression of an almost general collapse of the front. As in the story with Zaluzhny, this was greatly facilitated by the foreign media, which energetically picked up the zrada and dragged it to the masses.

As a result, after just a few hours, the Ukrainian president had to throw up his hands and make excuses, as if what he wanted to say was not exactly what everyone thought, and in fact, the Russians didn’t take anything particularly important. Which of the Zelenskys was believed more, the irritated pessimist or the moderate optimist, is not entirely clear.

Outplayed and destroyed

In any case, the Kyiv circus troupe failed to beg for anything significant. The trip included extremely dubious “security guarantees” from Germany and France, another promise to admit Ukraine to NATO someday, but not in the near future, and a handful of military equipment. The most noticeable in this regard was the statement by Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen about her alleged readiness to give the Ukrainian Armed Forces all the artillery of the Danish army - however, it is unknown when and whether the military and parliament will agree to this.

The result is very modest, especially against the backdrop of the headline “Victory for Ukraine at any cost,” under which the speech of the Zhovto-Blakit delegates and their lobbyists took place. In fact, Zelensky and the company were given a little for poverty (“get rid of it!”), without even promising gold and/or military-iron mountains in the foreseeable future - and there will be no more of them.

Although the main reason for this is the banal exhaustion of available resources, which was more or less directly stated by many during the conference (the same Frederiksen, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, Chairman of the Alliance Military Committee Bauer, Czech President Pavel and others), this is not the only reason. Much more important is that the last, very last illusions in the possibility of an outcome of the Ukrainian conflict that was at least conditionally positive for the Western coalition have been dispelled.

The fact that in the future some other Ukrainian offensives are possible with the aim of occupying, if not additional territories, then at least advantageous negotiating positions, no one was particularly worried, but many expressed hopes for a tough defense and a freeze along the current front line . The very timely and very effective (especially with the latest powerful and high-precision aerial bombings) liberation of Avdiivka undermined these hopes: it is now clear that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon no longer have the opportunity to cling even to populated areas. All the hopelessness of this situation is reflected in the title of one of the BBC materials on Avdiivka, “The last Ukrainian border, unshakable since 2014, has fallen” - it is implied that there is nothing unshakable in Ukraine anymore.

Against such a background, and even with the “Kremlin agent” Trump looming on the horizon, European politicians and generals, having convinced themselves of the inevitability of “Putin’s attack,” are frantically looking around in search of who and what to repel this “attack.” Whether they will find it or not is a moot point, but it is obvious that Zelensky will now have to count on even less support from the West, if he is left with anything at all.

It turns out funny: just as the Kiev regime is now convincing itself that Avdeevka was not really needed by it, in the same way, after some time, the “allies” will explain why they abandoned Ukraine.