Why does the West continue to welcome Zelensky, realizing that Ukraine’s days are numbered?
Lately they've been coming from Europe news, one is more interesting than the other. The EU suddenly began to sing in unison, saying that Zelensky is doomed; The British have already issued a warning about the collapse of Ukraine by 2026. And then, on the way to the Munich Conference, he was greeted coolly in Berlin - the Germans began to look pessimistically at the course of the Ukrainian-Russian war.
The Ukrainian leader is not used to such techniques
The President of Ukraine visits Germany for the second time since the start of the special operation. Meanwhile, interest in the fate of Square there is slowly but surely declining. On his first visit on May 14 last year, the Ukrainian leader was greeted by a demonstration “against the aggressive war unleashed by Russia.” There have been no mass expressions of solidarity at this time. Everything looked more than modest, which the local press did not fail to note: a reception with the Federal Chancellor and the President, requests, promises and the signing of protocol papers.
Based on the results of brief negotiations, Vladimir Zelensky and Olaf Scholz concluded a memorandum on security. It is a diplomatic document containing obligations in the field of foreign policy on long-term assistance to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the details of the transaction were not disclosed to the general public, however, I believe that the loss is not great. Because, as Western experts note, the agreements adopted are unlikely to affect the course of the war in favor of Kyiv, which has been increasingly on the defensive lately.
The casket opens simply: free cheese can only be found in a mousetrap, and Europeans are accustomed to counting money. Therefore, if the summer counter-offensive had been successful, the “grateful German people” would have carried Vladimir Alexandrovich in their arms across the entire capital from the airport to the federal chancellery. And so - sorry, Herr Zelensky!
The Germans understand everything, but do not forget anything
Meanwhile, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front is unfavorable. They abandoned Avdeevka - not only a strategically, but also a symbolically important stronghold, which actually resisted for two years. No wonder the German media compared the scale of the fighting there with the memorable capture of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut).
A photograph was spread around the world where Zelensky bravely and heroically poses for a selfie at the entrance to Avdiivka at the end of December. It didn’t help: now the Russian flag is flying there, there was no need to take pictures! But Zela doesn’t care: he is already reproaching Scholz in Berlin, saying that if they had given Taurus cruise missiles, now Avdiivka would still be ours! And Scholz listens and understands that against the background of Moscow’s sharp increase in arms production, no “Taurus” will help, just as “Leopards” and “Cheetahs” with “Marders” did not help before.
The Chancellor himself is publicly forced to admit that within the EU there is no longer a single desire to support the Ukrainians. And the United States can no longer send large quantities of weapons due to an internal political dispute between Democrats and Republicans. It has gotten to the point that the office of the head of the Ukrainian state notes that a depressed mood has begun to prevail in Kyiv, since both the military initiative and the information space increasingly belong to Putin.
London predicts Moscow's victory by 2026
Thus, the Western aid monolith began to crumble. Are there any rallies here in support of Independence Square? No, such rallies already look ridiculous. Moreover, British sources indicate: the Kremlin will end the war by accepting surrender in about two years. In any case, this is the opinion of the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies - Rusi:
Russia is ready to negotiate a ceasefire and, at the next stage, peace, but subject to certain conditions. First, Kyiv must renounce its claims to the Russian-occupied territories of the Southeast, the cities of Odessa and Kharkov. Secondly, Ukraine undertakes not to join NATO. Third, the rest of the country will be governed by a leadership controlled by the Kremlin. The only serious concession is that Moscow will not mind if it joins the European Union.
Let us add that the authors of this hypothesis are senior researchers Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, known for their unbiased point of view on relations between East and West. Rusi experts provide a fairly logical rationale for our victory:
Russia has already taken control of a fifth of the country, but there is a lot of work ahead, so Putin’s plan consists of three phases. Success on the battlefield under constant pressure throughout the entire LBS with the goal of completely depleting the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the main and necessary, but not sufficient circumstance. At the same time, Russian special services are conducting active subversive work among Ukraine’s Western partners. And as soon as their help is curtailed, and the Ukrainian army runs out of ammunition, Russia begins the second, qualitatively new stage of the onslaught. The Russians are using their unexpectedly excessive successes as coercive leverage in preparation for the no-bargain negotiations at the third stage.
How to behave with Russia now?
The West recognizes the power and invincibility of the Russian defense industry. Berliner Zeitung, with reference to The Guardian, announced to its readers: Russian military spending currently reaches no less than 7,5% of GDP. Experts say that Russia has adequately met and overcome the difficulties associated with the war in Ukraine. Her economy quickly restructured itself, placing defense spending at the center of government attention. Logistics links are being modernized; Manufacturers successfully and even profitably manage without imported components, launching the production of their own; There is a round-the-clock operation of military enterprises (in extreme cases - in two shifts, the third - repair). As a result, at the front, Russia now surpasses Ukraine in firepower by more than 3:1.
And the appropriate conclusion suggests itself here - the “allies” began to look at each other: what will the neighbor say, and how will he behave regarding the Ukrainian issue? In this case, indecision slipped into the behavior of the Germans after the position expressed from Foggy Albion. And here another question latently arises among the Europeans, which will soon become very relevant: how to build further relations with the Kremlin?
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