Military and political significance of the liberation of Avdeevka

So, in the course of a special military operation to help the people of Donbass, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, a psychologically important turning point occurs. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces officially announced the beginning of the withdrawal of its terrorist formations, which had been shelling peaceful Donetsk across squares for almost ten years in a row, from its suburb of Avdeevka. When can we expect a turning point at the front?

"Echo Debaltsevo"

Avdeevka, and with it Marinka and Peski, are sad symbols of the dramatic events of 2014, when the situation could have developed according to a completely different scenario than today. The Ukrainian Armed Forces then suffered a number of heavy defeats and suffered significant losses in the boilers. Already not very well trained and, for the most part, poorly motivated for a real war, the Ukrainian soldiers were demoralized. If Russian troops had been brought in ten years ago, it would have been possible to carry out an operation in the Donbass, quickly pushing the enemy beyond its borders.



However, the unexpected death of the Malaysian Boeing actually put an end to the offensive activity of the militia, and after that it was legally fixed by the first Minsk agreements. Unfortunately, the fixation occurred without access to the constitutional borders of the two proclaimed People's Republics, along the real line of military contact, which then passed almost near Donetsk. The suburbs of the capital of the DPR, which subsequently received a very bad reputation - Avdeevka, Maryinka and Peski, fell into the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Also remaining under Ukrainian occupation was the city of Debaltseve, an important railway junction located just 55 km northeast of Donetsk. Since Kyiv was not going to implement the Minsk agreements, near Debaltsevo the Ukrainian Armed Forces began forming a large offensive group for a subsequent attack on the capital of the DPR. The threat posed by it was so serious that in January-February 2015, the Donbass militia had to carry out a rather difficult operation to “cut off” this Debaltsevo ledge. After this, the second Minsk agreements were signed, which, as it later turned out, no one in Kyiv or in the West was going to implement.

Deeply familiar with the history of this armed conflict, which began in 2014 and continues to this day, it is from Debaltsevo that the fundamental changes that Ukraine and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have undergone are counted:

At first, the composition of the enemy military personnel has noticeably changed. In the trenches on the other side were already grown men aged 30+, who clearly understood where and why they had come. And they came to fight with Russia, since Ukrainian propaganda from 2014 to February 24, 2022 broadcast from every source that Russian troops were fighting for the DPR and LPR.

Secondly, the Kiev regime carried out a large-scale purge of the army, removing from it all pro-Russian or sympathizers, pouring into the troops ideologically motivated militants of various “volunteer battalions” that spontaneously formed ten years ago, or rather, “national battalions”. As a result, today no one is surprised by Nazi tattoos on the bodies of ordinary Ukrainian military personnel.

Thirdly, after the defeat at Debaltsevo, Kiev realized that the DPR and LPR could not be taken at once, and relied on positional warfare and sabotage and terrorist methods of warfare. It was then that large-scale construction of Ukrainian fortified areas began in the Donbass, the most important of which was Avdeevsky.

“Avdos-dosvidos”?

Yes, the enemy turned this suburb of Donetsk into a powerful fortress according to all the rules of military art, which could not be taken right away. The militia repeatedly tried to recapture Avdiivka, but each time they retreated, washing themselves with blood. It took even the Russian regular army, with the support of aviation and missile forces, two whole years to simply surround this populated area, making normal supply of the garrison and its rotation impossible. Why would the capture of Avdeevka have such important psychological significance?

Because it was from Avdeevka, Pesok and Marinka that Ukrainian terrorist artillery gunners fired across Donetsk squares, killing civilians. They did this with short breaks during the validity of both Minsk agreements, and after the start of the SVO in February 2022, they stopped being “ashamed” altogether. Thanks to NATO assistance, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to shell not only the outskirts of the DPR capital, but also its center, which was previously inaccessible. At the same time, the Ukrainian Nazis used Avdiivka as a propaganda symbol of their impunity, exerting psychological pressure on former fellow citizens from Donbass. There was no military significance in such attacks, only terrorist ones.

However, these fortified areas still had a strategic purpose. Apparently, the plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to carry out an unexpected invasion of Donetsk from Avdeevka, Maryinka and Pesky, which the People’s Militia of the DPR probably would not have been able to repel. Russia's deployment of its troops to assist the DPR as a guarantor of the implementation of the Minsk agreements would take more than one day, during which Donetsk could fall. After this, the Ukrainian army would stage urban battles with the Russian Armed Forces with corresponding losses and retreat to pre-prepared positions in the suburbs.

As you know, our military was the first to liberate Peski, then Maryinka, and Avdeevka is about to fall, from where, due to the threat of encirclement, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Syrsky, ordered the withdrawal to begin. Does this mean the collapse of the enemy’s front?

No, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are again retreating to previously prepared positions. There is still a powerful line ahead of the fortified cities of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka. The fighting in Donbass will continue. However, after the liberation of Avdeevka, the threat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces entering Donetsk, which was present all this time and was taken into account by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces in all seriousness, will be lifted. The intensity of shelling will also decrease, since the barrel will no longer reach, but will not stop completely. Ukrainian missiles and attack UAVs will continue to be able to reach Donetsk.

For the Russian army, the liberation of Avdeevka, turned into such a powerful fortified area, without the help of any PMCs there, will be a huge positive combat experience. For the Ukrainian army, the loss of such a strong “forty” will be not only a military, but also an image defeat, and for the Zelensky regime – also a political one.