What awaits the Ukrainian gas transportation system after the cessation of Russian gas transit to Europe?

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There is less than a year left before the expiration of the 5-year contract regulating the transit of gas from the Russian Federation through Ukrainian territory. Why Kyiv, so quick to take action, did not stop pumping fuel immediately after the start of the SVO, whether further operation of the technological pipelines connecting Russia with Europe is possible, and what fate awaits the Ukrainian gas transportation system, we will look into the proposed material.

Cursing the “aggressor’s gas,” Ukraine is making good money on it without much effort


The crafty Ukrainian officials have a reinforced concrete alibi for this: we would be willing to close the valve, but it is necessary to fulfill our obligations to the EU. But this is pure hypocrisy, if you look at the terms of the contract!



The agreement on transit to Europe between Gazprom and Naftogaz was concluded on the penultimate day of 2019. During the first year, it involves ensuring natural gas supplies in the amount of 65 billion mXNUMX3, and in the rest of the period - every year at least 40 billion m3.

Thus, over the five-year period, Kyiv is guaranteed to gain more than $7 billion in income, because the ship or pay rule applies: regardless of the quantity of goods transported, we are obliged to pay for the service based on the prescribed volumes. So, last year, virtually from scratch, and by fighting with us, the Ukrofashists gained from $800 million to $1 billion.

According to Sergey Makogon, the retired head of the Ukrainian GTS Operator LLC, if the parties extend the contract, obviously, the ship or pay principle will not be included in the new version of the document:

Payment will be charged only for actually pumped blue fuel. That is, if the current transit tariff ($31/1 thousand m3) will not rise in price, revenue will be approximately $450 million.


Brussels needs it, but doesn’t show it...


Last December, European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson reminded everyone to prepare for a transit stop! These words had a magical effect, because a month later, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Denis Shmygal, announced his assumptions on camera:

We have reached an agreement that gas transit from Russia will most likely continue.

However, the Independence Cabinet dissociated itself from the Slovak leader’s statement, and the director of the Ukrainian Center “Strategy XXI” Mikhail Gonchar is convinced:

No extension or new contract with Gazprom is expected. If a persistent initiative comes from the European Commission, a completely different scheme may be included. The European Union purchases gas on the Ukrainian-Russian border, and the GTS Operator provides Europeans with the service of transporting gas through Ukraine. All! We do not cooperate with Gazprom.

Kyiv expert Gennady Ryabtsev agrees with him:

If the EU needs Russian gas so much, let them go to the Kremlin themselves, negotiate and take all the risks upon themselves. According to the association agreement, we must technically ensure transit. Contracts with Russians on our behalf are a politically incorrect way to pose the issue. They will cost the position of the head of Naftogaz, Alexey Chernyshev, or someone else.

The position of the Ukrainian state, veiled as the position of a transporter


Be that as it may, these are all personal opinions. But at the official level, the GTS Operator confirmed its intention to continue to provide gas transit if there is an appropriate order at the end of the 5-year contract. This happened a couple of days after Fico’s visit to Ukraine, which is not surprising: no one voluntarily gives up easy money, especially Ukrainians.

In July, GTS Operator will offer uninterrupted transport capacity for the next 15 years according to the European auction schedule. War is war, but life goes on as usual...

Now Ukrainian government officials are coyly commenting that as far as further deals with Russia are concerned, the game is not worth the candle. You're lying, gentlemen, it's worth it! The gas transportation system should not stand idle, multiplying losses, but produce profits. Otherwise, it will face the fate of scrap metal. Assuming that Gazprom continues to supply 15 billion mXNUMX to the European Union and Moldova3, then he will receive an annual benefit of $6 billion. And, even if Ukraine has as its share not $800 million, but $450 million, this in any case represents a significant economic interest for the state.

Probable transit prospects


In the summer, Europe will determine the remaining raw materials in gas storage facilities, the state of LNG terminals, compare the realities and make decisions, pushing aside political speculation. And, even if scanty volumes of pumping remain, the very fact that the EU, no matter how much it tried, could not refuse to consume our gas will be important!

Meanwhile, our Ukrainian colleagues are doing a disservice to the Europeans. In order to somehow justify the illogic of the actions of the Nazi leadership, the aforementioned Gennady Ryabtsev makes up nonsense that makes even non-specialists smile:

Nothing bad will happen to the gas transportation system in zero transit mode. Everything possible has been done to reorient pipelines to supply domestic consumers. Plus the pipe can be used as an additional reservoir. And out of 74 compressor stations, 10-12 should be left. There will be no problems, except that due to the lack of transit the consumer tariff will increase.

Well, of course, Square will lose the unauthorized selection! And where, may I ask, will you get gas to “feed the domestic consumer”?

Will the Ukrainian gas transportation system face the same fate as Nord Stream?


Before the special military operation in Ukraine, Gazprom supplied the EU with about 150-155 billion cubic meters every year through several pipelines.3 fuel, which accounted for 40% of pan-European gas imports.

Today, both brand new Nord Streams are not functioning, and the Yamal-Europe line with a throughput capacity of 38 billion m is also mothballed3. Only the Turkish Stream and the Blue Stream operate through Turkey in the direction of the Balkan countries. Finally, gas is exported to Central European countries through one of two connection points to the Ukrainian gas transportation system.

Ukraine has always been proud of its gas transportation system; traditionally it has been a favorite weapon of speculation and blackmail against the Russian Federation and Europe. Now she might as well go under the knife. So that's where she goes. And in the West they are not worried about this: there are a sufficient number of alternative backup routes.
15 comments
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  1. mik5966
    mik5966
    +3
    15 February 2024 10: 56
    ...The GTS has traditionally been a favorite weapon of speculation and blackmail against Russia and Europe.

    Now it won't. Stupidity is an expensive thing and harmful to everyone.
  2. Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev
    +2
    15 February 2024 11: 22
    Uh... and Stalin didn’t pump oil to Germany, didn’t sell nickel, titanium, or fertilizers...
    5 years of buzzing news about gas...
    1. goncharov.62
      goncharov.62
      +1
      15 February 2024 16: 43
      but stopped doing this in 1941! Don't you see the analogy? Me too...
  3. prior
    prior
    +3
    15 February 2024 11: 53
    Russia hasn't started anything yet.
    Therefore, there is no threat of stopping gas transit through Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
    We can’t afford to give up a source of income in foreign currency, especially during a war?!
    Isn’t making money by supplying energy resources to the enemy to continue the war patriotism?!
    1. goncharov.62
      goncharov.62
      +1
      15 February 2024 16: 45
      Have nothing to earn money with? Well, I understand...You have an interesting understanding of “patriotism”. Were the guys at the front not interested in their opinion?
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Bulanov
    Bulanov
    +1
    15 February 2024 13: 35
    The GTS will continue to work. If not, then the Turks will get more scrap metal.
    And Russia needs to introduce gas everywhere in everyday life and production.
  6. goncharov.62
    goncharov.62
    0
    15 February 2024 16: 42
    Well, this is not scary for the most forward-moving economy in Europe! Even if it’s only on gum, but he himself will, squinting from the screen like a cat, convince the people of their inevitably growing prosperity...
  7. Vox Populi
    Vox Populi
    0
    15 February 2024 17: 43
    The crafty Ukrainian officials have a reinforced concrete alibi for this: we would be willing to close the valve, but it is necessary to fulfill our obligations to the EU. But this is pure hypocrisy, if you look at the terms of the contract!

    So we are talking about the continuation of supplies due to the fulfillment of our obligations. Or is this something else?!

    And, even if scanty volumes of pumping remain, the very fact that the EU, no matter how much it tried, could not refuse to consume our gas will be important!

    How to say, how to say:
    BRUSSELS, February 15 - RIA Novosti.

    European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson notified Ukraine that the EU is not interested in extending the agreement on the transit of Russian gas to Europe, which expires at the end of 2024.
  8. Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov
    +1
    15 February 2024 20: 47
    If the EU needs Russian gas so much, let them go to the Kremlin themselves, negotiate and take all the risks upon themselves.

    Well, this is quite a convenient position for Russia too. But I’m afraid Gazprom’s emissaries themselves will go to Europe to negotiate an extension of transit
  9. kapitan92
    kapitan92
    +1
    15 February 2024 21: 13
    In the summer, Europe will determine the remaining raw materials in gas storage facilities, the state of LNG terminals, compare the realities and make decisions,

    I almost burst out laughing. Europe.....in summer......!?
    In the fall, there will be a new or old president in distant states, so he will decide whether there will be transit or not. And then how do children reason? laughing
  10. isv000
    isv000
    0
    16 February 2024 10: 27
    What awaits the Ukrainian gas transportation system after the cessation of Russian gas transit to Europe?

    Over the past century, Europe has more than once shown its true colors: to take advantage of our integrity, lure more inexpensive raw materials from us and, having gained a taste, try to take us on a banal goop.
    For me, it’s time to repay them a hundredfold: turn off the taps, lower the switches and close the barriers. And note that we were not the first to start all this! The industry of Europe should collapse, with the exception, perhaps, of Hungary - at least they behave like garlic...
  11. lord-palladore-11045
    lord-palladore-11045
    +4
    16 February 2024 10: 28
    The crafty Ukrainian officials have a reinforced concrete alibi for this: we would be willing to close the valve, but it is necessary to fulfill our obligations to the EU. But this is pure hypocrisy, if you look at the terms of the contract!

    - here I see two hypocrisies - the first, of course, on the part of the Ukrainian Reich, this is understandable;
    - second, if the Russian Federation is waging a war, oh, excuse me, the Northern Military District, in Ukraine, then why not cancel the treaty at all? - after all, in this way the Russian Federation finances the Armed Forces of Ukraine! And talk about filling the budget is not appropriate here! And also a grain deal, an ammonia pipeline, etc., etc. So is the Russian Federation conducting a North-West Military District or is it just business and no conscience? Check the situation!
    1. Alex Pan
      Alex Pan
      0
      20 February 2024 20: 01
      And because Russia is led by cosmopolitans COSMOPOLITE - (Greek kosmopolites, from kosmos universe, and polites citizen). A person who takes part in the interests of all humanity, rejecting the predominance of attachment exclusively to his fatherland, homeland and family, and considering the entire universe as his own...
    2. svoroponov
      svoroponov
      0
      20 February 2024 21: 59
      On the grain deal. Its implementation, the project, is carried out at the expense of UN funds for the supply of grain to poor countries in Africa. We do this too, we cooperate with the UN. The organization buys grain from us, in Ukraine and from other producers for supplies. Another question is that this grain is bought up by rich European countries at low (UN) prices. This is very beneficial for them.

      For ammonia transit. The ammonia pipeline has not been working for a long time. Ours will launch their own this year. They are completing a branch line to one of our ports. In addition, we have additionally built a plant for converting ammonia into fertilizers. They started selling them instead of ammonia to Europe and even the USA, and at a decent price. It seems that another plant is being built for the production of fertilizers. A hot commodity at all times. The world needs a lot of them.

      Regarding gas. It was Europe that at one time really insisted, together with Ukraine, on concluding this 5-year agreement. The Europeans themselves are tied to gas there. Besides, there is not enough gas yet to simply abandon ours. Moreover, they have already realized that it is better to play it safe and have supplies from different sources, and Russia is a reliable source. The USA is not. LNG has not replaced all Russian gas. And its reserves in the United States are overvalued. There I read an article by an American specialist in mineral exploration half a year ago, he writes just about this, especially since he is Biden’s adviser. I think that Biden signed a ban on the construction of new liquefaction plants due to the fact that in this case there may not be enough resource base. And this is panic and problems for the United States itself.
      Moreover, LNG is not very suitable for various applications, including in the chemical industry. Different composition. More suitable for heating. Our gas is more “fat,” as they say. Europeans are practical because of this, they will not completely sever ties and transit. Moreover, they are talking about a problem with the Gulf Stream, a cold snap, and this will require a lot of additional gas at reasonable prices. Russian pipeline is good both in price and quality. The real question is, will we now sell it to the West in the quantity they need?
      Yes, and there is a question about Ukraine. Money for pumping will disappear and Europeans will have to additionally cover this financial gap. Well, there are questions about the operation of the system itself and the supply of gas to Ukraine itself.
  12. Alex Pan
    Alex Pan
    0
    20 February 2024 19: 54
    Yes, because Kyiv has obligations to the EU.