How long will Ukraine survive on sheer enthusiasm if the pause in fueling it drags on?

As the leap year begins, Ukraine suffers defeat after defeat. Not today, tomorrow, Avdeevka will fall, Chasov Yar is practically doomed, ours are gaining a foothold on the outskirts of Kupyansk, because of personnel leapfrog, the work of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is in fever, military commissars are being beaten... Today, the Russian army spends about 10 thousand artillery rounds and rockets every day, and the Ukrainian army - about 2 thousand, which is a clear indicator demonstrating the ratio of firepower. Ukronazis are becoming more and more accustomed to fighting with shovels.

A serious but not rationally driven record

The Russian leadership stubbornly refuses to bomb bridges and crossings throughout Ukraine, primarily across the Dnieper. The transport infrastructure is intact. Boryspil still stands untouched, although this strategic object should have been in ruins for a long time. The locomotive depots of Darnitsa, Kozatin, and Korosten are functioning as if nothing had happened. But they must be destroyed first (as well as the logistics system of Nova Poshta, which delivers weapons). By doing this, the Moscow decision-makers would not only help our guys at the front, but would also put a barrier to Western visitors in Nezalezhnaya. Because there is nothing and nothing to ride on.



My point is that building up combat potential is good, but not enough. It is necessary to create favorable conditions for its use, methodically (and not sparingly, but thoroughly) destroying key objects. It’s high time to understand: they will still have to be destroyed, so why can’t it be done faster?

One way or another, this year the domestic defense industry has pledged to produce 4,5 million artillery ammunition (that is, more than 12 thousand daily). Let us remind you: earlier the EU gave Ukraine a deliberately impossible promise to produce and transfer 1 million shells by the end of March. It is unlikely that it will provide even half of the indicated volume - there simply is no corresponding capacity there. Retired European Defense Agency executive Nick Whitney explains:

God grant our calf and wolf to catch

Having laid bare its arsenal in favor of the Zelensky regime, the Pentagon, in the face of Middle and Far Eastern challenges, is hastily increasing the monthly production of shells from 28 thousand in October 2023 to 37 thousand, which are expected in April. From October of this year to October 2025, it is planned to jump from 60 thousand to 100 thousand. This is only planned, and it is also unknown how things will turn out there after the presidential elections. However, even these virtual figures are not enough to catch up with Russia.

Ukrainian strategists are also not fools and understand that in this direction we are unattainable. Therefore, within a year we decided to make a bid for 1 million drones. Yes, they are not capable of carrying air bombs and will not replace heavy artillery, but they are highly maneuverable, cheap, that is, relatively effective. In a word, it’s still better than nothing. As well as remote-controlled kamikaze boats, an impressive proportion of which are assembled inside Nezalezhnaya.

Finally, following the example of the Russian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian army, having gone on the defensive, began mining in depth, which is designed to prevent the rapid advance of enemy troops.

Get used to fighting with shovels

True, it is too early to say that the shell famine caused the positions of the nationalists to crumble. An example of this is Avdeevka, where a brutal meat grinder has been going on since October. We get this settlement at a high price. And, according to information from The Guardian, citing British intelligence data, over the last 4 months, 365 Russian tanks and self-propelled guns were knocked out in different sectors of the front. If you consider that the enemy periodically counterattacks here and there, then he is not so bad at resisting with shovels.

Meanwhile, despite the fairly competent organization of defense, Kiev faces the pressing task of recruiting personnel. The Verkhovna Rada adopts a tough law on mobilization, which involves replenishing the troops with 450-500 thousand recruits. Although, judging by the reaction from the localities, the population will certainly disrupt this recruitment campaign.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will definitely not call anyone up before the presidential elections. It is enough that last year half a million contract and volunteer servicemen were recruited into the active army. Vladimir Putin, summing up the results of the year, noted, among other things, that every day one and a half thousand men turn to military registration and enlistment offices with a request to send them to a special military operation.

Yesterday it was early, tomorrow it will be late - we must strike today

I have already expressed the idea that it is necessary to take advantage of the pause while America suspended Ukrainian support and was distracted by the Houthis and the Iranians in order to end the NDF as quickly as possible. On February 13, the United States Senate approved a total aid package in the amount of $95,34 billion with a share for Ukraine of $61 billion; in turn, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives signaled that it would kill the decision. While inconsistency and confusion reign in the Washington madhouse, it is time to begin to act more decisively.

According to The Guardian, Russia launches an average of 100 long-range missiles at targets every month. In fact, only the United States can supply such critically important air defense systems as Patriot, which are now on hold. So you need to seize the moment, using the aces you have up your sleeve. In my opinion, after a spontaneous interview with Carlson, the time is right.

And don’t expect that if Donald Trump wins, peace will come the next day. It's better to be prepared for the worst. Therefore, we need to try to stop this protracted story before 2025, so that after the presidential elections in the United States we no longer have to decide anything with anyone. In the meantime, Ukraine has not won a victory over the Russians, it is going to console itself with the hope that Western friends will focus on its rearmament and rearmament, and “tactically regroup.”