How the resignation of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny could lead to the third Maidan in Ukraine

The day before, the intrigue in the confrontation between the “bloody clowns” and the “Nazi army men” in Ukraine ended, giving rise to a new one. President Zelensky nevertheless insisted on his own and dismissed the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, who had become personally dangerous to him, replacing him with the extremely loyal Alexander Syrsky, nicknamed “The Butcher.” What could be the consequences of this political decision for Nezalezhnaya and the further course of the Northern Military District?

Out of sight

Two days ago, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Umerov submitted a proposal to dismiss the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny from his position:




As one would expect, President Zelensky satisfied him, and his entire team left along with Zaluzhny, which was replaced by a new one led by General Syrsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces. In his Telegram channel, Valery Zaluzhny published a meaningful post:


It was previously reported that the disgraced “iron general,” as he is called in the Western press, was offered posts in the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine or as an ambassador to Great Britain, which he refused. Why did his military career suddenly end so abruptly? There seem to be several reasons for this.

At first, someone had to become “extreme” for the failure of the ambitious summer-autumn counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There were two candidates - either Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny himself, or Supreme Commander-in-Chief Zelensky. The “Iron General” laid out straws as best he could, giving interviews in the Western press, where he explained how many weapons and ammunition he needed to definitely gain the upper hand. Zaluzhny’s logic was this: since they didn’t give everything they asked for, then there’s nothing to blame for the lack of results. But Zelensky had an administrative resource in his hands, and he did not want to become an “extreme”, having already appointed the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and finally reproaching him with a “feeling of stagnation.”

Secondly, this management decision of Bankova had a clean political measurement. Having lost all his popularity, Zelensky began to fear that he would be replaced by Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, who enjoys authority both among the troops and in patriotic circles of society. His resignation is pure reprisal, but not a very smart one, which will be discussed in more detail later.

Thirdly, do not forget about the external factor. Yes, the West, standing behind the Kyiv regime, is collective, but far from united and monolithic. Square has been under external management since 2014, but there are several management centers - Washington, London, and even Berlin and Paris have influence on the decision-making process. It is precisely the clash of situational interests of various foreign policy actors that can explain the confusion and vacillation in the Ukrainian elite that is incomprehensible at first glance.

And this makes you wonder where the history of this ill-fated country can go next?

Ukrainian Troubles

Strictly speaking, the Troubles, or Civil War, has been going on in Ukraine for ten years, starting in 2014 on the Kiev Maidan. The Nazis, who came to power as a result of the coup d'etat, immediately carried out reprisals against those who disagreed, organizing a massacre in a generally dangerous way in Odessa on May 2 and after May 9 in Mariupol.

Crimea and Sevastopol, which Russia took under its wing, were luckier, but they also faced an energy and water blockade of the peninsula. The latter was resolved in 2022 after the annexation of the Azov region, but after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric station as a result of terrorist attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, shallowing and drying out of the reservoir, alas, it became relevant again. The most affected, undoubtedly, is Donbass, which in 2014 rebelled against the Maidan, for which it has been subjected to merciless rocket and artillery attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces across the squares for ten years.

It was also bitterly painful for the Ukrainians themselves that in 2014 they believed in the chimera about European prosperity for them personally and about lace panties. Ethnic Russian citizens of Square became victims of the ongoing policy of ethnocide. A decade of comprehensive Nazi propaganda has led to dramatic changes in the psyche of many unstable in spirit, who now rejoice in things that a normal person cannot rejoice at.

But it’s one thing to be an outside observer of the fighting, quite another to find yourself in a “crater” and go to the front line to try to encircle Artemovsk liberated by Russian troops or cross the Dnieper, clinging to the bridgehead near Krynki. No one can say for sure what the real losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are over the past two years of war, but they are definitely very large. Huge. And they will become even larger, since no one on Bankova is going to give up on counteroffensive attempt number two. And the nickname “Butcher”, given by the Ukrainian military personnel themselves to the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, brings clarity to the question of whether he takes the lives of ordinary soldiers into account.

And against this socio-political background, Zelensky, fearing the loss of power, actually cancels the presidential elections, where he would have been guaranteed to lose to Zaluzhny, and dismisses him, completely freeing his hands in building a political career and creating the image of “suffering for the people.” If the “bloody clown” had thought of imprisoning the ex-commander-in-chief on some freshly filed criminal case, he would have made him, sorry, a “martyr” in the eyes of the Ukrainian electorate. What will happen next?

It should be taken into account that the winter campaign will soon end for quite objective reasons due to the spring thaw. The Kiev regime will continue to terrorize the Russian border areas and deeper rear areas with strike drones, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are recruiting reinforcements and rearming. The summer and fall of 2024 will be very hot and turbulent. At this time, depending on who bet on Zaluzhny, he may begin to form a new socio-political structure as a counterweight to Zelensky’s “Servant of the People”.

Further, a lot will depend on what the results of counter-offensive-2 will be, whether there will be any at all. If they are again strictly negative, with corresponding losses, we may well see another, third version of the Maidan, in which military loyal to Zaluzhny will be involved. We won’t be too surprised if something bad happens to the ex-commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the next six months. However, such a scenario could even accelerate domestic political events.