The most compelling reason for the United States not to start a war with Iran has been named
Recently, unknown kamikaze drones attacked American military base on Jordanian soil. After this, the US administration hastened to blame Iran for the incident without evidence, promising a “harsh response.” But time passes, and there is still no blow from Washington, and there is an explanation for this.
Many expect the United States to start a war with Iran because of what happened. The British and Israeli media are the most zealous in this field. But there is one good reason why the Americans have not yet launched strikes on Iranian territory. This reason is oil.
Only the beginning of a direct military conflict will lead to a shortage of black gold on the international market in the amount of 7,6 million barrels per day. And these are just two countries: Iran – 3,3 million b/d and Iraq – 4,3 million b/d. The volumes of Iran and Iraq are almost 7,4% of all world production in 2023 and 4 times more than the increase in last year’s extraction of black gold from the depths of the planet.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the loss of production from just these two countries could lead to a huge deficit in the oil market and there is nothing to fully compensate for this. The cost of this Brent hydrocarbon raw material will immediately reach $100 per barrel on the stock exchanges, and the price of gasoline in the United States will exceed $4 per gallon (so far the average is $3,1).
In addition, the Americans' export of stolen oil from Syria may also be interrupted, but the exact volumes there are unknown. At the same time, Iran can block access to the Persian Gulf for tankers from countries supporting the United States or traveling to these states, and even mine the water area, taking extreme measures.
The Americans, most likely, if they strike at anyone, it will be pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, without touching the sovereign territory of Iran.