The most compelling reason for the United States not to start a war with Iran has been named


Recently, unknown kamikaze drones attacked American military base on Jordanian soil. After this, the US administration hastened to blame Iran for the incident without evidence, promising a “harsh response.” But time passes, and there is still no blow from Washington, and there is an explanation for this.


Many expect the United States to start a war with Iran because of what happened. The British and Israeli media are the most zealous in this field. But there is one good reason why the Americans have not yet launched strikes on Iranian territory. This reason is oil.

Only the beginning of a direct military conflict will lead to a shortage of black gold on the international market in the amount of 7,6 million barrels per day. And these are just two countries: Iran – 3,3 million b/d and Iraq – 4,3 million b/d. The volumes of Iran and Iraq are almost 7,4% of all world production in 2023 and 4 times more than the increase in last year’s extraction of black gold from the depths of the planet.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the loss of production from just these two countries could lead to a huge deficit in the oil market and there is nothing to fully compensate for this. The cost of this Brent hydrocarbon raw material will immediately reach $100 per barrel on the stock exchanges, and the price of gasoline in the United States will exceed $4 per gallon (so far the average is $3,1).

In addition, the Americans' export of stolen oil from Syria may also be interrupted, but the exact volumes there are unknown. At the same time, Iran can block access to the Persian Gulf for tankers from countries supporting the United States or traveling to these states, and even mine the water area, taking extreme measures.

The Americans, most likely, if they strike at anyone, it will be pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, without touching the sovereign territory of Iran.
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  1. Kiril Offline Kiril
    Kiril (Kiril) 30 January 2024 21: 13
    -3
    Funny explanations - the price of oil will be more than 100 green - and that was noticeably more - and no one noticed
  2. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 30 January 2024 21: 28
    +4
    The most compelling reason for the United States not to start a war with Iran has been named

    Well, what Iran??? laughing (I haven’t laughed like that for a long time) They tearfully ask China to talk to the Houthis so that they don’t misbehave. Houthis, guys running through the desert in slippers on their bare feet with a machine gun at their advantage and a knife in their belt. But Iran is not the Houthis, it has missiles and planes and submarines. They will find so many reasons not to fight with Iran Yes
    1. Elena123 Offline Elena123
      Elena123 (elena) 30 January 2024 23: 35
      -11
      Don’t tell me what kind of planes and missiles they have, Iran has nothing
      1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
        Afinogen (Afinogen) 30 January 2024 23: 47
        +3
        Your jokes are tasteful. Yes lol
        Iranian Armed Forces https://bigenc.ru/c/iran-vooruzhionnaye-sily-1f0ca2
    2. RazrStorm Offline RazrStorm
      RazrStorm (Storm Razr) 31 January 2024 07: 29
      +3
      Costs may be unacceptable
    3. mik5966 Offline mik5966
      mik5966 (Mikharl) 1 February 2024 12: 17
      0
      Very reasonable post. Agree. And on the eve of the elections, messing up in front of Iran would be a complete failure for the states, worse than Afghanistan.
  3. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 30 January 2024 21: 49
    +5
    In any case, Biden is in zugzwang. He cannot help but react, but a blitzkrieg with Iran will not work. And the elections are already this year
  4. mr parker Offline mr parker
    mr parker (Wind) 31 January 2024 01: 45
    +6
    Quote from Elena123
    Don’t tell me what kind of planes and missiles they have, Iran has nothing

    Is there nothing? Pffff)))))
    Iran has 523 thousand military personnel and 350 thousand reservists. These are the largest armed forces in the Middle East, if anything. And the current composition of the Iranian armed forces itself consists of 350 thousand military personnel and 125-150 thousand IRGC fighters, the most developed and trained members of the country’s military apparatus.
    Iran has about 1634 tanks in service (other estimates put it at just over 1500), which puts it in 18th place out of 137 countries included in the ranking. The strength of the tank armor is supported by 2345 armored vehicles and 1900 various types of missile launchers.
    Tehran's fleet consists of six frigates, three corvettes, 34 submarines and 88 patrol ships. The submarine arsenal includes Soviet/Russian Kilo-class submarines. They are called "black holes" because they are silent.
    Iranian Air Force 509 aircraft. The basis of the Iranian Air Force is the American F-4, F-5 and F-14 fighters created in the 1970s. They are called "Tizparvazans" ("fast flyers").
    Well, I’m generally silent about missiles and UAVs; Iran has them like dirt.
    And you say that they have nothing???
    Iran is feared like hell in Israel and the USA! Therefore, the maximum that they (the United States) will do against them is to strike at the Iranian proxies in Syria or Iraq and Usa. Iran is not the Taliban on donkeys and in shale. The United States may finally bury its hegemony there.
  5. In passing Offline In passing
    In passing (Galina Rožkova) 31 January 2024 01: 54
    0
    They have already started singing about their own mistakes.
  6. sannyhome Offline sannyhome
    sannyhome 31 January 2024 08: 23
    +1
    But there is one good reason

    The main reason is logistics. It turns out to be a very, very long arm, too expensive!
    Open the map and see what routes can be taken to deliver weapons and troops to Iran? It's just crazy how long and expensive it is.
    "Desert Storm" against Iraq was possible only with the full support of the world community and Russia and China, with the sanction of the UN. Now what? The United States will not get involved in such an expensive operation alone. And none of the allies will support, a maximum of 1-2 ships will be sent to help and that’s all. Nobody likes Israel and no one will fit in with it.
  7. Vitaly-Rodaslav MK (Vitaly-Rodaslav MK) 31 January 2024 10: 29
    0
    Quote from Elena123
    Don’t tell me what kind of planes and missiles they have, Iran has nothing

    Don't make people laugh and don't pretend to be an expert in something you don't know, it looks very funny. Iran has something to answer and they have enough weapons.
  8. Pavel57 Offline Pavel57
    Pavel57 (Paul) 31 January 2024 10: 31
    +1
    The oil stolen from Syria is consumed by Israel, which is "drowning" for the war with Iran. The guys risk being left without oil altogether.
  9. JD1979 Offline JD1979
    JD1979 (Dmitriy) 1 February 2024 02: 29
    0
    Oil? I would put this last in the current climate. Moreover, if there is 100+, then the US will begin its production again, as was the case during the last rise. Their expensive production technology is justified only by the high price of oil. And the main reason is that the fifth point may break. Since the United States is actively throwing itself into the conflict in Ukraine, Israel, and now they themselves have a ton of internal problems. And besides this, the conflict with Iran is dangerous not because of the price of oil, but because it can undermine the entire East, so even 300 per barrel will seem like a trifle.