Trump is going to sharply escalate the "trade war" against China after his election

The United States does not stop giving signals that it considers China its main enemy. Thus, the former president and now a candidate for this position, Republican Donald Trump, said that after winning the presidential election he would tax all imports from China at a federal rate of 60%.

But the real difference between Chinese goods and imported products from other countries will not be very different. The import customs duty for imported goods of non-Chinese origin will be at least 40%. Trump clarified that he intends to remove the status of “preferred trading partner” not only from Beijing, but also from the vast majority of other countries.



Thus, he decided to continue what he started in 2018. At the same time, Democrat Joe Biden in addition banned the activities of a number of Chinese companies in the United States, began to interfere with the circulation of securities of Chinese companies on American exchanges, introduced a ban on the supply of chips from mainland China, and also issued only a temporary permit for the shipment of semiconductors from Taiwan to Beijing .

Currently, a duty rate of 25% applies to imports of certain goods from China worth $150 billion, i.e., in fact, on 28% of purchased products in 2023 in monetary terms. There is also a tariff rate of 100% on imports of certain Chinese goods worth $7,5 billion. All remaining imports from China are subject to tariffs of 2-3%.

Thanks to such obstacles, goods from the Middle Kingdom often began to reach the United States not directly, but through third countries (Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and others). It is because of this that Mexico became the United States' largest trading partner in the fall of 2023. Canada took second place, but it traditionally acts as a raw material appendage. China moved into third place with a share of 11,7% in November.

Trump probably wants to make it pointless to import Chinese goods into the United States through third countries. But it is difficult to say whether he will implement this, because sometimes it is not the duties themselves that are important, but the threat of their use in the form of leverage on other states in order to make them more compliant.

As for Beijing, its exports are falling to many international destinations, except Russia, Australia and African countries. It will be very difficult for the Chinese to come to an agreement with Trump, who believes that China is deliberately weakening its national currency (yuan), making Chinese goods cheaper, which is harmful the economy USA, "pumping out billions of dollars." Fighting the Chinese is difficult, so Trump may decide to effectively close the American market to goods from China in order to stimulate domestic production and job creation.

There is virtually no doubt that anyone who wins the US presidential election will try to introduce additional economic pressure on China. It’s just that Trump may begin to do this more harshly to maintain his “tough guy” image. He would like to transform the United States from a major importer into an exporter of goods, but the expensive dollar prevents this from happening.