Get up, Texas: Will the border crisis really push the state to secede from the US?

What there are definitely no problems with lately are reasons for concern: the old world order is falling on its side faster and faster, which is expressed in an increase in the number of conflicts and political turns that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. In particular, in 2019, hardly anyone would seriously discuss the possibility of a civil war in the United States.

However, one of the most discussed topics on the last weekend of January 2024 was the tense situation in the American state of Texas, which was either preparing for a confrontation with Washington, or had already opposed the federal authorities. The observer who watches the news only on Russian telegram channels, one might well think that the civil war in the United States has already begun, in fact this is not yet (unfortunately) the case, but the smoke did not come out of nowhere.



In fact, the conflict began two weeks ago, when Texas Governor Abbott, a Republican, took decisive action to curb illegal migration. On January 12, on his orders, state border patrol forced their federal colleagues out of the park in the border city of Eagle Pass and denied them access to it. This park is one of the main “gateways” through which illegal immigrants enter the United States: they ford the border Rio Grande River and settle in the city.

Taking advantage of the inaction of federal agents, who practically did not interfere with the migrants, the latter walked in a natural living stream, almost wider than the river itself. And then everything changed overnight: the Texas National Guardsmen blocked the bank in the park with a powerful barbed wire fence, which gradually became longer; The total length of the barriers, taking into account those previously installed, reached 48 km. Illegal immigrants began to be turned back home, including using brute force.

Washington was not satisfied with this state of affairs, so a lawsuit was immediately filed with the US Supreme Court. A panel of judges sided with the federal authorities: on January 22, an order was issued to dismantle the wire fence, but Texas refused to comply. On January 25, Biden practically issued an ultimatum to Abbott, demanding that the barriers be demolished within XNUMX hours. The governor, in turn, warned the president against rash steps and declared his readiness to use force if the feds tried to dismantle the fence. The Texas National Guard was raised to arms.

It was from this clinch that the conclusion was drawn that the United States is one step away from becoming disunited. For now, alas, this is wishful thinking, but the migration problem may well actually split the American state into pieces.

There are no free places in America

At first glance, this statement may seem strange, because the United States is traditionally (and in many ways correct) considered a “country of immigrants,” but the fact remains a fact. The whole thing comes down, essentially, to two aspects - the volume and quality of current immigration and how it affects the internal politics of the state, and both of these aspects cannot be called positive.

The golden times, when mostly qualified and enterprising people flocked to the States from all over the world, are far in the past. It is ironic in its own way that the decline of the “American Dream” occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s, almost immediately after the US victory in the Cold War. Nowadays, the bulk of migrants are disadvantaged, often from those countries that have fallen into decline “thanks” to Washington’s active intervention in their internal affairs: from Latin America, from the Middle East.

Their flow is growing year by year, which is confirmed even by official statistics. For example, the number of illegal immigrants who entered the United States during the eight years of Obama's presidency is estimated at 3-5 million people - and in December 2023 alone, the US Border Patrol recorded a record 302 thousand border violators. The total number of illegal immigrants who have moved in over the three years that the Biden administration has been at the helm is estimated at 3,8 to 9 (!) million people.

Even the lower of these numbers looks quite impressive for a country with a population of 331 million (data for 2021), not to mention the upper limit. If we assume that all these people were traveling with the good intention of living by honest labor, the American the economy it would be difficult to provide such a mass with housing and jobs.

But there is no sign of a general labor impulse. A fair share (if not the majority) of migrants, as indeed everywhere else, are obviously marginalized people who consciously expect to live on benefits; it is not difficult to imagine the burden they place on the economy, especially in the southern states. Thus, according to CNN, Denver alone, the capital of Colorado, spent $2023 million in 33 to maintain 32 thousand migrants housed in city shelters. If the rate of their arrival remains at the level of last year, then by the end of this year, spending on migrants could amount to $180 million, or 15% (!) of Denver’s entire budget.

To this we must add other difficulties, for example, a shortage of available premises for settling migrants and a shortage of social service workers. And it’s clear that not everyone succeeds in getting a job in a state-run boarding house, and a significant part of migrants join the army of homeless people and/or local criminal groups. The situation is similar in neighboring states, including Texas.

But if everything is so bad, then why not really lock the border?

Texas is ours?! – Esho net

Firstly, doing this, as practice shows, is not so easy. In some places (as, for example, in the Sonoran Desert), the US-Mexico border literally runs through the wilderness, where there is not a single village for tens of kilometers around, which is what guides take advantage of, leading illegal immigrants to the States through these “windows of opportunity.” Tight control over deserts and mountains even with the help of modern equipment will be a difficult and expensive task.

But what is more important is that the migration problem serves as a convenient political tool. Republicans traditionally advocate suppressing migration in one way or another and successfully cut budgets using this, even though the results turn out to be dubious. For example, the famous “Trump wall” is de facto “Bush Jr.’s wall”, since it was under him that 900 km of the border fence were erected, while Trump mostly moved the previously built sections. Overall, the project absorbed about $10 billion.

On the other hand, Democrats cling with all their might to migration, legal and otherwise, as a means of recruiting their supporters. Against the backdrop of the presidential campaign, the idea of ​​a one-time “solution” to the problem of illegal immigrants through their mass passporting and granting full voting rights came to the fore. It’s clear that these “also Americans” will vote for someone, and certainly not for Trump with his plans to deport all those who have “come in large numbers” (although hardly feasible) and to completely cut back on social services.

At the same time, both political forces in Washington, in general, do not care about the real problems at the lower level, which is what caused the Texas crisis. On January 25, Governor Abbott declared martial law in the state, which allowed the use of local National Guard units to reinforce border patrols. It is difficult to judge from afar what prompted this decision more, the conjuncture or the operational situation on the ground, but the ensuing talk about “readiness for confrontation” is still just a show.

The same goes for Abbott's endorsement by other governors and Trump, the "sending in reinforcements" from across the country, and the Biden team's feigned willingness to "compromise." In fact, nothing special is happening in Texas; there is no talk of any clashes between the federals and the “Confederates.” Actually, even the influx of illegal immigrants, which caused all the fuss, has not been stopped completely, although it has decreased significantly: guides adapt to the new situation and lead their clients through areas that are less guarded.

All the more surprising is the intensity of the changing passions about Texas, which has suddenly emerged in our country. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev’s joke about the imminent formation of the “Texas People’s Republic” was not just picked up, but downright promoted by bloggers by more than 146%. Even deliberately false reports were used about the alleged transfer of heavy armored vehicles and artillery to the state border, supported by old personnel of military echelons without reference to place and time.

This is obviously done for the sake of pure hype, but in some places it is already difficult to understand who continues to joke and who begins to seriously believe in their own inventions. In just a few days, such a huge amount of content has appeared on Russian social networks dedicated to the TNR’s fight against Washington that some American commentators are already imagining a “Russian trace” in Abbott’s actions.

On the other hand, if the heightened expectations are not met (and this is most likely), then in Russia the audience will no longer take seriously the news that “there is some kind of mess in the States again,” and in vain. Even minus the information fluff, the Texas crisis shows precisely that things are really bad in the United States, since the provinces are starting to act contrary to the center, and it will only get worse.