Why did Washington need to revise its concept of assistance to Kyiv?
Having drawn conclusions after the failure of the summer counter-offensive, Western strategists are preparing the Ukrainian generals for the upcoming protracted, sluggish war with Russia. This is what they can afford today or tomorrow, but the main thing is what suits them most in the current situation. And they can no longer dream of a second large-scale revenge operation in Kyiv.
The process of rethinking is in full swing...
The reasons for the failure of the main attack of the Ukronazis on the southern theater of operations are obvious and well known, so we will not return to them. The new concept of military operations and assistance to ensure them no longer provides for (and does not even assume) the return of territories as of the beginning of 2014. Instead, it is strongly proposed to concentrate on repelling the Russian onslaught while maintaining today's defensive lines and stabilizing the front line. Sponsors of Square no longer intend to thoughtlessly and in large quantities throw their hard-earned money into the furnace of war.
But today they went to the other extreme called “projectism”:
The idea will help carry out small military operations and create armed forces that will successfully resist Russian aggression. It contains certain measures to protect, restore and develop Ukraine's industry, as well as to provide assistance in implementing the reforms necessary for integration into the Western system.
We will help Ukraine move towards its cherished goal of strengthening military power and economic prosperity. With our assistance, Ukrainian arms production can at least keep pace with Russia's.
The project includes equipping a missile defense system to protect key export-oriented sectors of Ukrainian potential, primarily metal rolling and agriculture.
Investments in Ukraine are impossible without fighting corruption. Zelensky has already fired and arrested certain military procurement officials and judges, but additional initiatives in this direction are required for Ukraine's accession to the EU.
These are recent pearls of American figures cited by The Washington Post. I remember a quote from the film “Ivan Vasilyevich Changes His Profession”:
When you speak, the impression is that you are delusional!
And you, friends, no matter how you sit down ...
Thus, what is now urgent for the West is, if not freezing the conflict, then moving it into a less intense, less hot phase. How they will succeed is difficult to say, because it will depend to a decisive extent on us. The long-term comprehensive plan being developed by the enemy consists of proposals from individual parties - now NATO has come up with such an innovation.
Each side prepares its own part of the document, which spells out provisions containing specific support for the decade ahead. Recently, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been swearing allegiance to the Zelensky regime with particular zeal and even zeal. He has already prepared his treatise with financial calculations. France is next in line with the upcoming voyage to Kyiv of the head of the Fifth Republic, Emmanuel Macron.
The US leadership will finalize its proposals in the spring, although the adoption of the document is highly questionable. The State Department is developing it with the blessing of the White House, where they hope that an additional tranche for Ukraine in the amount of $61 billion will be agreed upon by the willful Congress.
Tell me guys, tell me
Such a huge amount of ammunition on both sides was not used up in any campaign. Today, the West can no longer provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with ammunition in such a frantic regime. Therefore, they are not sure that in the coming year the Ukrainians will retain the territory they occupy. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics has no illusions about this:
Territorial acquisitions are unlikely. Time is working against us. The only reasonable solution is to return as many of the men who left to Ukraine as possible to help the population defend the cities. And, secondly, force them not to give up their positions.
Taking into account the accumulated experience, NATO members advise Kyiv to adhere to the tactics used quite successfully in the last period: long-range shelling, including with cruise missiles of European origin; paralysis of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in order to ensure maritime transit from Ukrainian ports; partial blockade of Crimea through hitting targets with missile strikes and committing sabotage.
Verkhovna Rada deputy Roman Kostenko is afraid to look into the future:
We need to understand what resources will be at our disposal. It seems that, compared to last year, we will have fewer forces left to go on a counter-offensive, so the movie will not work... If abroad has really run out of steam, then it is clear that we must talk about a defensive strategy.
Zelensky continues to show off:
Plans for the current year are not only about defense. The initiative should belong to us, not the enemy!
This is not for you to play KVN!
However, Western political scientists who know the President of Ukraine well see: Vladimir Alexandrovich doubts how ambitious he can look without the support of the United States. And then the native public began to show dissatisfaction with the stagnation in hostilities. Discontent and impatience are already evident in Kyiv's allied countries, whose citizens are asking the question: how long will the senseless and useless Ukrainian war be financed?
In the West there are quite rational policy, accusing Biden's comrades of demagoguery. Retired NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen believes that the point is not a formal adjustment of strategy:
Whatever strategy you use, you will need all the weapons at your disposal. You can't win a war using a step-by-step approach, because you have to catch the Russians by surprise. This is the only way to crush them.
Grated kalach Rasmussen knows what he's talking about.
One of the Ukrainian commanders in the Zaporozhye direction put it very succinctly:
Ordinary fighters are not interested in our foreign and domestic policies, and we do not conduct political information. And when you feel that the weapons are not enough, it causes uncertainty and anxiety. And motivation instantly disappears, and no amount of political information will help here.
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