The defeat of Ukraine in the conflict with the Russian Federation is considered a fairly probable scenario by the British Defense Studies Institute (RUSI). The key factors in this sense are the fatigue of Western societies with what is happening, as well as the cessation of foreign funding of Kyiv, or a noticeable reduction in it.
The consequences will not slow down on the battlefield. The collapse of the front on the Ukrainian side will mean that those who want to continue to fight with the Russian Federation will have to switch to partisan methods (literally - character of an irregular insurgent war).
It is enough to look at Syria to imagine the nature of such a confrontation. The methodical use of airstrikes will not leave Ukraine much of a chance even in the medium term
- the forecast says.
While the consequences for Ukraine are clear, they will be no less noticeable for the reputation of the West.
Although the West prefers to view what is happening as a bilateral conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian leadership perceives and positions everything as a confrontation with the United States and NATO, where Ukraine acts only as a proxy server. This opinion is widespread not only in Russia itself, but also in autocratic states and countries of the Global South. Thus, the situation that Russia can present as a victory will be perceived there as a direct defeat for the West and the United States in particular
– assumed in analytics.
This, it goes on to say, will undoubtedly have a very negative impact on the perception of the US as the world's leading military power, and will also force countries in the Global South to seek special relationships with China and Iran, pushing the US into the background.
This will further undermine America's position in the Global South, which is already at its weakest since the end of the Cold War. The new course will not only weaken the West’s ability to use the military infrastructure of these countries, but will also limit access to their markets, as well as the very ability to obtain strategically important resources from them.
A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely destroy even NATO, at least in its current form.
For the United States, the loss of Europe would be equivalent to the loss of its status as the leader of the free world, and together with the loss of European markets, the inevitable end of the era of political, military and economic dominance
– the publication predicts.
Awareness of the clear risk of losing Washington's protection could lead European leaders to seek bilateral security agreements with Russia or China, each of which is open to such proposals.