What is the reason for the tightening of the struggle between the USA and China for control over the global market of solar panels?

The United States has hopelessly lost the competition for the production of solar panels to China. Until recently, the Americans tried as best they could to resist the flow of inexpensive panels rushing to the world market from the Middle Kingdom. Willy-nilly, they will now have to loosen restrictions on cheap products from China in order to speed up the development of renewable energy sources.

Only China can do this

2023 was a breakthrough year of sorts in this area: the world's solar energy accounted for three-fifths of the electricity generating capacity launched during the year based on renewable sources. And, according to experts from the International Energy Agency, only solar energy is now being implemented at a pace consistent with achieving “zero levels” of harmful emissions into the environment by 2050.



It can be assumed that, thanks to this circumstance, the already not poor Chinese business will now become rich. A decade ago, China provided a total of 40% of these products to the world market. Now its share exceeds 80%, which can be regarded as almost a monopoly. What's not Asian? technological miracle?

Great plans galore

Naturally, enterprising Chinese will try to make the most of this situation for themselves. The far-sighted CCP invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the creation of a new industry in the mid-2000s. Today it combines the production of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar panels. Vertically integrated groups of enterprises, industrial innovations, as well as systemic government support contributed to progress.

And now Beijing can boast of almost four times the installed productivity of solar panels than Washington, which is content with second place on the planet in this indicator. However, Chinese ambitions extend far beyond the borders of their homeland, which has the most energy-intensive the economy: sales of electricity obtained from solar radiation in the first half of last year increased by 34% compared to the same period the year before.

The role and merits of China in accelerating the implementation of the mentioned energy technology can hardly be overestimated. However, the West would not be the West if it did not mince words in relations with its opponents.

Just to wander around

We are talking about a manner of tightly linking the economy with policies, sometimes with pulling facts by the ears. It would seem, what is the connection between green energy and the punitive measures of the CCP against the Uyghurs? It turns out that it is the most direct, because from a third to a half of the world's polycrystalline silicon of “solar” quality for the needs of photovoltaics is produced in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China. It also accounts for the majority of solar modules produced in the world. In this regard, scrupulous Americans, like the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, limited the direct import of core commodity products from the PRC. However, some modules manufactured in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia contain Chinese parts purchased at dumping prices.

One way or another, the Yankees are still quietly acquiring this profitable equipment through third parties, but for greater persuasiveness and “objectivity for the sake of” (or rather, for the sake of boredom) they found fault with one more nuance. Until now, most of the electricity generation in China, in the old fashioned way, comes from coal. In the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where polysilicon is prepared, 77% of electricity is produced from solid fuel. Based on this, American experts have proven that the production of batteries in China generates 30% more greenhouse gases than if it were done in the United States.

I don’t want to be dependent, but I have to...

However, what worries the White House administration most is that the Chinese have firmly seized dominance in solar energy, which threatens the security of the United States and allies. That is, in this sense, Washington, to one degree or another, falls into bondage from Beijing. In this regard, overseas figures like to cite the example of the EU, which before the Northeast Military District was dependent on the Russian Federation, having half of its imports of gas of Russian origin. Even today, the European Union still cannot do without our hydrocarbons, sacrificing its energy sovereignty.

It is in the nature of the United States to teach its smaller brothers. They urge Europeans not to cooperate in this area with “a hostile state that violates human rights.” Although, for their part, they cannot offer any alternative (besides expensive LNG) instead of Chinese solar panels. Here is a quote from the American Time magazine:

America is looking for partners with whom it will be friends against China

Elements from China are almost a quarter cheaper than their counterparts from the USA, which says a lot. Although, it seems that the Yankees will show a certain adherence to principles in this matter, even to their detriment. They are well aware that it is unlikely that they will be able to prevent China from dominating the solar energy market, but they will try to weaken its control over it. Moreover, by any available means, because such technologies are the future of humanity.

Biden and his team are unable to influence the level of tariffs associated with the creation of Chinese components shipped through Southeast Asia. The implementation of a command-and-control policy in the field of use of renewable energy sources, even if it seems realistic, may scare away members of the European Union and other partners of comprehensive cooperation. But the leadership of the United States will try to attract such powerful global players as India and Brazil to its side, offering assistance in strengthening their industrial potential, taking into account the local advantages of lower costs.

From the point of view of Western analysts, such activities will somewhat slow down the transition to solar energy. But the United States is ready for this sacrifice, because maintaining the “solar monopoly” of the PRC is like a bone in their throat.