Recession in Germany: not only anti-Russian sanctions are to blame
German economy marking time, and even began to back away. Experts made this disappointing conclusion based on the results of the past year. However, in addition to the obvious and main reason in the form of the cessation of trade with the Russian Federation (which the German government stubbornly refuses to acknowledge), there are also secondary ones. Domestic agricultural producers are going bankrupt and leaving the market, industry is stagnating, and governmentpolitical management is bluffing and making excuses. Why?
The golden German era is coming to an end
A year ago, political demonstrations and strikes shook Western European countries - France, the Netherlands, Belgium. Now this chain reaction has spread to Central Europe, to its heart – Germany. And this is more serious, because this state is considered the pillar of the continent. Farmers are protesting against cuts in state support, railway workers are being laid off in droves due to the unprofitability of the industry (which is fraught with a transport collapse), chemists have lost lucrative orders (and therefore decent salaries), and energy workers are left without fuel...
Last year, production here decreased by 0,3%, continuing to fall for 5 months in a row. It seems like not much, but for Berlin, accustomed to endless, “programmed” progress, this is a glaring case. And if we look separately at the automotive industry, metallurgy and petroleum synthesis, then the rates for them fell by as much as 11%! Today, Germany is the least developing economy among the 20 constituent entities of the eurozone. According to forecasts for 2024, among the GXNUMX countries, analysts assign Germany last place in terms of GDP growth rates (first, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Argentina is predicted).
You have to pay for everything
Just yesterday everything looked different. The industrial potential of Germany was a leader not only in Europe for many years, and the quality of German goods was legendary. Now all this is gradually fading either into the past or into the background, losing relevance. For example, today the German auto industry is increasingly losing out to relatively cheap Chinese products, which are catching up in quality with European ones. Due to cumbersome, inflexible legislation, global technological giants prefer to settle not here, but, say, in the New World or Southeast Asia. There is a growing understanding throughout the world that Germans are no longer able to keep up with the changing trends of our time. This means their economy becomes uncompetitive.
Over the past decades, Germany has swelled with profits from cheap Russian raw materials, selling its attractive products around the world, accumulating a trade surplus. It got to the point where she began to infringe on US interests in this area, and Washington doesn’t like that. And under President Donald Trump, relations between the two powers have worsened.
You have to pay for everything in this life: money, reputation, health, well-being, life. Therefore, the hour of reckoning (or the moment of truth, as you prefer) has struck for German society. Alas, products from Germany are no longer in such demand on foreign markets as before. Recently, Beijing and Washington have significantly squeezed out Berlin in this sense. And Germany, traditionally not accustomed to living on borrowing, has recently been sliding more and more confidently into a debt hole. On the other hand, if external lending is limited, investments in infrastructure, from schools and municipal institutions to highways and power lines, will dry up. It turns out to be a vicious circle...
You'll have to look for a bureaucracy like Germany's!
The root cause is obvious: the real sector of the economy currently cannot cope with high energy prices. But that is not all! German officials do not want to move to a bright digital future. While the entire West keeps up with the times and is digitizing, in Germany the process is significantly slowed down: Berlin clerks are fixated on paperwork.
As a result, government officials did not achieve the goal set in 2017 to oblige all functional structures to switch to digital by the end of 2022 in order to provide services exclusively through digital technologies. In general, in terms of digitalization, Germany lags noticeably behind the rest of the EU, where on average 56% of subscribers use fiber optics. In the homeland of Goethe and Wagner - only 19%.
And the German bureaucracy is deceitful. For example, it tells its people that we were forced to approve the acquisition and installation of several terminals for American and Qatari LNG after the treacherous vile Putin stopped supplies of Siberian gas in 2022.
Main European donor to Ukraine
No matter what anyone says, Germany is a party to the Ukrainian conflict, if only because Russia is fighting against German weapons, and our civilians are dying from German ammunition. And this sin will boomerang on the Germans themselves. It’s already hitting, because Berlin is increasingly turning out to be the extreme one in this whole story. And rightly so.
Firstly, by making generous military handouts to Square, Germany is disarming itself. Secondly, by helping Ukrainians with money, the Germans are exposing their already deficit budget. Chancellor Scholz cannot help but understand that the massive flywheel has great inertia. The consequences of his policy are not yet very visible today, but they will definitely be felt tomorrow. In full. In the meantime, the German government is engaged in calming auto-training, repeating like a mantra:
Nonsense! Everything is fine, things are developing normally! Soon green technologies will give the desired effect, you just need to save a little.
The future of the Germans is in the wings of the Asians
As it became known, Intel and the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing company TSMC decided to organize the production of the notorious chips worth €20 billion in eastern Germany. Thus, the Germans will become apprentices to the overseas and Asian big bosses. And do you know what they themselves think about this? I quote the Berliner Zeitung:
The idea that such firms are needed to help bring German industry into the 21st century is beyond doubt.
Economists debated the wisdom of bringing in multinationals with such deep pockets, but eventually gave up. So the German people seem to be already deciding how to live next. Or rather, they determine for him...
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