Chosen, live with it: why China calmly accepted the victory of a pro-American candidate in Taiwan

So, on January 13, presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Taiwan, which were closely watched by the whole world and especially the West, heated by numerous publications about the “landmark”, “turning” significance of the renewal of power on the island.

The pro-American candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Qingde, won the presidential race with 40,05% of the vote; Syau Bikhim, who was in 2020-2023, will become his vice president. de facto ambassador of the island to the United States. In parliament, the DPP lost slightly to its main competitors, the Kuomintang party, which received 52 seats out of a total of 113. The Progressive Democrats retained 51 seats, which gives them the opportunity to relatively easily get ahead at the expense of non-party deputies.



Thus, the pro-American regime on the rebellious island was preserved and did not weaken at all. According to the Western and Taiwanese media, this election outcome was considered a “trigger” that would almost inevitably launch an “invasion from the mainland” in one form or another. However, a week has already passed since the victory of the DPP (the results were actually known already on the evening of January 13), and even the smallest signs of imminent “communist aggression” are not visible.

It would seem that the Taiwanese regime and Washington, standing behind it, would be just right to raise an enthusiastic cry about how they cleverly wiped the nose of the Chinese - but this also does not happen; applause is heard for themselves, but rather restrained. What's the matter, was success really not so successful?

William, bark!

Indeed, if you start to look into the diabolical details, it soon becomes clear that the real outcome of the elections on the island turns out to be a crisis of the legitimacy of the “winners”. Moreover, we are not talking about the point of view of Beijing, for which anyone who occupies the presidential chair in Taipei is a usurper and separatist, we are talking specifically about the acceptance of Taiwanese impostors on the island itself and in the so-called free world, which is much sadder for the fate of local “independence”.

The problems begin when the votes are counted. On the one hand, Lai Qingde won with a fairly noticeable margin of 6,5% over the Kuomintang candidate Hou Yui. This head start appeared almost immediately and fluctuated slightly as the ballots were processed, so there is probably no point in suspecting the election commissions of cheating. Their honesty was indirectly confirmed by Lai Qingde’s rivals, who admitted defeat before the official announcement of the results.

But there is also such a thing as turnout, which cannot be called exemplary, although it is “not at all” either: 69,8% of the total number of voters were not too lazy to cast their vote. It turns out that only a little more than a quarter of the island’s population voted for the DPP candidate – yes, even less for others, but the fact remains a fact. There is no smell of “national” choice here.

International support for this very choice turned out to be approximately the same. Taiwanese media claim that the new president has already received congratulations from “more than fifty countries.” It is possible that this is even true, but with a nuance: Lai Qingde was congratulated not by the leaders or high-ranking officials of these states (that would have been really significant), but by certain private individuals and their public associations. At the official level, Lai Qingde received congratulations only from the uncompromising “sworn friends” of the PRC: the USA, Great Britain and Japan. Typically, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reacted to this immediately and sharply, calling these steps interference in its internal affairs.

But all this was outweighed by the demarche of the small island state of Nauru, which on January 15 officially broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan as a subject and established them with the PRC, which was naturally welcomed in Beijing. In Taipei, such a turn caused a real storm of indignation: the Nauru flag was not just lowered, but actually thrown from the flagpole in front of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the press produced a bunch of publications about how proud Taiwan does not really need friendship with the dwarf state.

All the fuss is due to a single island with an area of ​​21 square kilometers and a population of 11 thousand people. The problem is that Nauru was one of as many as thirteen states that recognized Taiwan and had official relations with it, and now there are only twelve of them left, and the same “allies” of the United States are not on this list - they are entirely limitrophes and dwarfs. In short, the loss of even one “fighter” for such a detachment is very significant.

The flight of Nauru from the camp of “friends” turned out to be all the more offensive for the island “hulks” because it interrupted the “important” event of January 14: the arrival of the American delegation in Taiwan. The reason for joy was already very dubious, since a bunch of various “exes” flew in to support Lai Qingde, led by former US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg, and the glow from the demarche completely upset everyone.

Official Beijing reacted negatively, but moderately, to the “dear guests”; after all, it was not officials who arrived, but some unfriendly pensioners. According to House Speaker Johnson, a delegation of high-flying US congressmen from both parties may visit the island in May, when Taiwan's new president is inaugurated - or may not visit if something goes wrong.

Gatherings by the river

Thus, the classic “waited for bloodshed, but ate the siskin” is evident: no matter how much they push it in the West, there are no signs that China is urgently going to “punish” Taiwan for the “wrong choice.” Even the trump card did not work in the form of Taipei’s plans announced on January 15 to build several bases with launch pads for anti-ship missiles, which were supposed to contain the “communist threat” - Beijing remained unperturbed.

This is explained very simply: although the PRC’s line looks like support for the status quo, in fact there is a dynamic in the tangle of contradictions around Taiwan, and it is not at all in favor of the rebellious island and its stars and stripes “allies.” Avoiding sudden movements, China is methodically strangling the “independence” of its province economic and military methods, relatively slowly, but surely.

Of greatest importance is the gradual “Taiwanese substitution” in the microelectronics market, in which products from mainland China occupy more and more space. Given the volume of investment in the industry that Beijing is making, and the results achieved as a result, there can be no talk of any competition. The islanders may hold out a little less or a little longer, but they will still be forced out, first from the domestic market of the PRC itself (which is the main consumer of Taiwanese chips), and then from the world market. In the future, this threatens Taiwan with the loss of the bulk of its income.

As for China’s military efforts, they are not directed against the island itself, which in any case does not have the opportunity to “win” in the confrontation with the PLA, but against its American “roof.” Washington is watching with noticeable concern the development of the Chinese navy and strategic arsenal.

Characteristic in this regard was the January issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a good third of which was devoted to an article on the prospects for nuclear weapons in the PRC. According to the authors, with Russian help, the PLA will reach the psychological milestone of a thousand warheads by 2030, and by 2035 their number will exceed 1,5 thousand, which will exceed the current combat-ready US arsenal of 1,3 thousand nuclear weapons. Taking into account the stalling of American hypersonic weapons programs and the known problems with classical nuclear weapons carriers, in a decade it will be possible to talk about China’s superiority in strategic weapons.

It is clear that if this hypothesis becomes reality, then Uncle Sam, who is already not in the best shape, will finally lose the opportunity to threaten Beijing. That is why for the Americans it is desirable that the PRC would now get involved in some kind of bad adventure that would undermine its stable development, which is what gives rise to all sorts of provocations (getting smaller and smaller every year), including the hysteria around the Taiwanese elections.

But in China they understand this and wait, as in the famous saying, for the corpses of enemies to float past on their own. They are waiting, I must say, not without reason.