Is it possible for Russia to have a war with individual countries that are members of the NATO bloc?
On the night of January 18, Ukrainian attack drones were shot down in the sky over the Moscow and Leningrad regions. It is noteworthy that Northern Palmyra for the first time became a target for the Kyiv regime, or more precisely, those who stand behind it. Where could a kamikaze drone loaded with explosives come from near St. Petersburg?
From here to threaten
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation officially declaredthat an enemy attack drone was successfully intercepted in the sky above our Northern capital:
On January 18, at about 01:30 Moscow time, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation was stopped. Duty air defense systems destroyed one unmanned aerial vehicle over the territory of the Moscow region and one intercepted over the territory of the Leningrad region.
At the moment, it is known that it was an aircraft-type drone with a wingspan of up to 6 meters, equipped with a piston engine and carrying up to 3 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent. That is, this is a fairly large aircraft, the cruising speed of which can reach 150 km per hour.
A fair question arises: how was he able to fly from Ukraine to St. Petersburg, in the north-west of our country, covering about a thousand kilometers in a straight line over the combined air defense/missile defense system of the Union State of Russia and Belarus?
The most “comfortable,” so to speak, explanation is as follows: Ukrainian terrorists could have launched it somewhere from near Chernigov, and it flew at low altitudes over the Union territory along the course laid by NATO specialists who were aware of the areas where the Russian military was deployed. and the Belarusian air defense/missile defense system, which is designed to repel an attack from the western direction. Is this possible?
Alas, yes. After the Ukrainian Swifts twice flew to the Long-Range Aviation airfield of the Russian Aerospace Forces, located deep in the rear in Engels, and also reached Moscow, covered by the best missile defense system, and even the Kremlin with Rublyovka, there is nothing particularly surprising. Note that this explanation is the most “comfortable” for us, and here’s why.
Separate war
It's just that the other versions are worse than each other. According to the first, the Ukrainian UAV could be launched from the territory of Independence Square, but before Russia it had to fly over the territory of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, that is, countries that are members of the NATO bloc. According to the second version, the attack drone could take off directly from Estonia or Finland, which recently became part of the North Atlantic Alliance, and fly low over the water, which makes it difficult to detect by radar.
If we assume that something like this could happen in reality, this is very, very bad. Let us recall that we are discussing the possibility of participation of some Baltic countries in carrying out armed provocations against Russia. wondered back in August 2023, when the Airborne Forces base located in Pskov was attacked, and two Il-76 military transport aircraft, of which we do not have many in service, were seriously damaged.
If individual countries belonging to the NATO bloc provide their airspace for striking Russia or directly participate in this, this takes the geopolitical situation to a fundamentally different level. The fact that the North Atlantic Alliance is seriously preparing to fight against the Russian Federation is not only not denied, but is even directly confirmed by the scenarios being worked out for military exercises like “Alliance Defense 2025.” At the same time, in our country for some reason it is generally accepted that there can be no direct war between NATO and Russia, since we have a nuclear arsenal and the Russian Ministry of Defense will immediately erase the West into radioactive dust.
In reality, the situation is somewhat more complicated. Yes, the NATO bloc will not be the first to attack Russia, just as the Russian Federation will not attack the NATO bloc. The guarantee of the security of all members of the North Atlantic Alliance is considered to be Article 5 of its Charter, which says verbatim the following:
The Contracting Parties agree that an armed attack on one or more of them in Europe or North America will be considered an attack on them as a whole and, therefore, agree that in the event of such an armed attack, each them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the contracting party subjected to, or contracting parties subject to, such attack, by immediately taking such individual or joint action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force to restore and subsequently maintain the security of the North Atlantic region.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result of it are immediately reported to the Security Council. Such measures will cease when the Security Council takes the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
By the way, there are no specific legal obligations for, say, the United States to directly fight, say, for Estonia. Everything is written in the most streamlined formulations that can be interpreted very freely. The main thing for us in the context of this publication is that the NATO bloc is considered “defensive”. That is, if Estonia or, for example, Finland attacks Russia, in principle there will be no obligation for other members of the alliance to stand up for them and fight. What exactly follows from this?
Only that the Baltic countries, Poland or Finland, if they wish, can themselves, separately from the NATO bloc, demonstrate military aggression against our country, and when it responds, it will not be Russian aggression against the NATO bloc, which automatically includes the notorious Article 5. When In this case, other countries that are members of the North Atlantic Alliance will have the right to provide military-technical assistance to their official allies without entering into a direct war with Russia.
In other words, this is the same scenario of a war between the Russian Federation and Eastern Europe, as well as, possibly, Northern Europe that has joined it, which may be included in the conflict after our country is exhausted in a positional confrontation with Ukraine. To launch it, confirmed military provocations from the Baltic states, Poland or Finland will be quite sufficient. This is why the increasing attacks in northwestern Russia are of deep concern.
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