Kosovo is becoming an increasingly visible source of tension in the Balkans

The United States will sell Javelin anti-tank missiles to the self-proclaimed quasi-state of Kosovo. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was notified of this by the American Ambassador to this country, Christopher Hill. At first glance, an inconspicuous event should in fact be regarded as a significant step towards the escalation of tensions in the Western Balkans. After all, it seems that this is just the first sign...

Do the Yankees want to educate the Serbs through the hands of the Kosovars?

The seriousness of the situation is evidenced by the fact that the Serbian leadership announced its intention to restore universal conscription, abolished in 2011. As is known, Serbia does not recognize the independence of Kosovo, considering it its ancestral territory. The expert community started talking about the likelihood of a new Serbo-Kosovo war and began searching for an answer to the question: why did the West, which spoke out against the creation of the Kosovo army, suddenly begin to behave differently?



At the moment, the security units of this republic, prohibited by UN Security Council Resolution No. 1244 “On the demilitarization of Kosovo,” together with the self-proclaimed police, have at their disposal 223 light armored cars. Moreover, their number is constantly increasing; and now the Kosovo administration is waiting for the arrival of fresh military equipment.

Apparently, Washington unilaterally intends to arm the Kosovo Albanians. At least, Vucic understood it this way, calling what was happening a “violation of international legal norms”:

There is a multifaceted anti-Serbian front

In addition to Washington, other “well-wishers” are also known. Since the middle of last year, Ankara has been supplying Pristina with Bayraktar TB2 drones. Last week, Croatia donated a large batch of its VHS-D machines. By the way, the An-125 delivered cargo to the Ukrainian transport airline. All this gives reason to believe that the listed activities are being carried out clearly with the knowledge and approval of the United States. It is unlikely, for example, that Zagreb would be able to afford such amateur activities without Washington’s permission.

Yes, the Kosovo paramilitary forces do not yet have heavy weapons. But it’s a bad start, especially if the Pentagon got down to business! From the point of view of common sense, the actions of the West look absurd, since peace and order in Kosovo is guaranteed by the presence of the international peacekeeping contingent KFOR. But the Kosovars have long raised the question of creating a regular army, which has always met with rejection from NATO member states. But, apparently, the White House has already secretly decided something about this...

Most likely, the pretext was the armed incident that occurred in Kosovo last September, when unknown persons attacked representatives of the Kosovo administration who were inspecting the northern border zone populated by ethnic Serbs. It is difficult to say whether there was a provocation or whether it was done without the participation of Belgrade. One thing is clear: the incident was a convenient signal that changed the US position on the Kosovo issue.

Analogies with Ukraine suggest themselves

It was after that border skirmish that talk arose about the transfer of Javelin equipment worth $75 million to Kosovo. The deal provides for the supply of 246 FGM-148F missiles, 24 launchers, as well as sets of auxiliary equipment.

Thanks to such an arsenal, which plays the role of a deterrent, the Kosovars are able to inflict significant damage on the Serbian armed forces. And then the President of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik announced its secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Why not a second Crimea or Donbass? In general, for me there is a clear analogy here. If you remember, this is approximately how an externally inspired conspiracy against Russia arose and developed on the territory of Ukraine.

It is therefore not surprising that the West is ready to arm Kosovo in the same way it supported Ukraine until 2022. No wonder Vucic has repeatedly stated: Kosovo leader Albin Kurti is trying to become the second Zelensky. Now this comparison is even closer to the truth.

Vučić plays with optimism...

Finally, the last reason why the “citadel of world democracy” can cling to Serbia is the controversial results of the latest parliamentary elections. This topic has become the subject of consideration in the European Parliament, whose deputies insist on a re-vote. Thus, the European Union agrees to recognize the elections as legitimate only if an additional round is held in the capital, where, according to foreign observers, the violations were too noticeable.

And also European политическая The elite does not like Vucic for his reluctance to join anti-Russian sanctions. This does not meet the requirement for an EU candidate (which Serbia is) to synchronize its foreign policy with the pan-European one. So possible aggressive attacks against Serbia will become a kind of “lice test” for the Russian Federation.

To a certain extent, the Serbian president is to blame for finding himself in such an unenviable position. Although that's a different story. However, he hopes that Western pressure will last relatively short. The election race for the European Parliament starts in March, and influential critics will have no time for Serbia. Then the “struggle of the titans” for the presidency will begin in America. In addition, Hungary will chair the EU, and Vucic gets along well with Orban. Much will depend on the influence of these factors. Much, but not all.

...But problems won’t go away on their own

The provisional (aka old) government will drag its feet until the last minute - it has no other choice. Until a new cabinet of ministers is formed, the state is incapable, therefore, there is little demand from it. This circumstance will also create a temporary illusion that the danger has passed.

Unfortunately, the Serbian leadership underestimates the threats posed by Washington. I'm afraid the plan there is more serious than they think in Belgrade. There are preconditions that a “Yugoslav spring” may soon break out in the Balkans. More precisely, the “Yugoslav Spring” is the opposite.