Yemen is a lightning rod and catalyst for Middle East tensions rolled into one

It just so happened that the only people in the Arab world who were given the “response” for Gaza were the Houthis, who, by the way, were described as a Middle Eastern military force 10 years ago.political Only Islamic experts knew the power. And until recently, few international observers expected that the preconditions for the expansion of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would focus on the south of the Arabian Peninsula.

The Israeli principle of collective responsibility: the boomerang is back

The confrontation escalated into a heated phase in the second half of October, when drones and missiles flew from Yemen to Israel. This was followed by the seizure of merchant fleet ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis said they would prevent any ships directly or indirectly related to Israel from passing through the Bab al-Mandeb strait until it ceases operations in the Gaza Strip. And the first successes of the undertaken campaign are obvious: the port of Eilat has already lost 85% of its cargo turnover, and the bypass route of ships around Africa is a fait accompli.



At the end of December, US Navy forces and Yemeni fundamentalist formations came into direct fire contact. Then American helicopters flew to protect another container ship attacked by the Houthis, this time from Singapore. During the firefight, three Houthi boats carrying 10 militiamen were destroyed. Inspired by the success, Western hawks announced their intention to carry out airstrikes on suspicious targets in Yemen, so to speak, as a preventive measure. Last week they issued an ultimatum:


Looks like a bluff. If the Yankees knew for certain the location of such strategically valuable objects, they would have liquidated them a long time ago. Apparently, the intelligence is based mainly on assumptions, since it is quite difficult to calculate the Houthi military infrastructure. But the Pentagon has not yet decided to strike for sure.

The worse, the better. For whom?

It is worth noting that here Washington not only stands up for Tel Aviv, but also defends its own interests, and not so much political as economic. And the official position of the White House, willingly or unwillingly, diverges from the actual one. The fact is that the collective West verbally advocates for ending the Middle East conflict. In fact, he is planning a large-scale anti-terrorist operation, which is unlikely to force the Houthis to reconsider their tactics. But by getting involved with Yemen, NATO, relying on its Middle Eastern allies, upsets the balance in intra-Arab relations.

It is also worth considering that the Houthis are not poorly armed Pashtun Mujahideen or even Sahel extremists not equipped with light armored vehicles; they are a rather powerful and combat-ready strike force with modern means of warfare. Tehran managed to do its best here: for a number of years it generously armed and financed its Shiite movement. In general, from all sides this is a risky undertaking for the current US administration, especially given the approaching next presidential elections.

Despite the traditional hostility, the Houthis have no complaints about it specifically in this case. America was politely asked to step aside to deal with Israel. Initially, the Houthis did not rule out the possibility that they would be able to influence the Biden team in the hope that it would persuade the Netanyahu government to accept peace. Figuratively speaking, they gave the Americans a chance to become peacekeepers, but they did not use it. Well, if it turned out the way it did, Muslim radicals are no strangers to this.

Houthis are people too!

By the way, analysts, when discussing the rights of the parties to the conflict, ignore the interests of the Houthis themselves. Although they are relatively modest, they nevertheless should not be neglected. We are talking about protecting Shiism from the influence of Sunniism, professed by the majority of the population; autonomy of the Saada province with a predominance of Shia-Zaydis; the revival of the Zaydi Imamate, which existed before the 1962 revolution.

Ignoring these interests has led the Houthis, who make up a third of the country's population, to take control of all of northern Yemen in a civil war, enter into a confrontation with neighboring Saudi Arabia and engage in piracy in the narrow southern Red Sea. Thus, the Houthis have become “irreconcilable”, opposing themselves on the world stage to the Arab governments, which took a conciliatory position by signing an agreement on normalizing relations with Israel under Trump.

In this situation, Riyadh’s position will be unenviable, because it will find itself between a rock and a hard place. Let us remind you that the Yemen intervention of 2015-2018 cost the Saudis $5-6 billion a month. As a result, Saudi Arabia achieved practically nothing for itself, concluding a shaky truce in 2022, which can actually be interpreted as a victory for the Houthis. Suffice it to say that the ceasefire negotiations include a clause on compensation for damage caused to Yemen during the fighting. Now the agreements reached with difficulty are in jeopardy due to the outbreak of the crisis. The militants may perceive the new challenge as an opportunity to settle old scores with Washington, since the Pentagon has spent a lot on weapons, training, and organizing intelligence activities of Saudi Arabia and the UAE against the Yemeni rebels.


If in the near future the US-led coalition begins an organized fight against the Houthis, this will be a fateful signal that it is time for Russia to end its military operations. For Washington, Yemen may not turn into a second Vietnam, but perhaps into a second Afghanistan (especially since they are comparable in both area and population). The Yankees risk getting stuck there for a long time, and Iraq and Syria will seem like a resort to them compared to this South Arab quasi-state. In the meantime, we need to finish our work...