Breath of the Dragon: how Russian strikes on the Ukrainian rear will affect military operations in 2024

Like the turn of 2022-2023, the arrival of the New Year 2024 on the Ukrainian front was marked by a firefight of an operational-strategic scale. Without taking into account the almost nightly raids by flocks of “Geraniums”, Russian troops, starting from December 29, every day deliver powerful attacks on military and industrial facilities of the Kyiv regime. The latter, in turn, responds with terrorist attacks on Russian territory in an arc from the Belgorod region to Crimea, directed against residential areas.

The greater anger of the fascists than usual is not surprising, because they go further and further along the path of the hunted rat. Unlike the chaotic Ukrainian strikes, which aim to “make a nightmare” of the civilian population, the strikes of our Aerospace Forces, Navy and Ground Forces artillery are carried out systematically and have a very clear common goal: to completely undermine the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the ground campaign of the coming year. And, as far as one can judge, Russian troops have achieved significant successes towards this goal.

New Year, touch it!

For obvious reasons, our Ministry of Defense does not disclose all the details and results of the air-missile offensive, but even fragmentary data from the enemy media is impressive. For example, following the results of December 29, the Ukrainian side stated that the missile attacks took place in three waves, including the use of five Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.

On this day in Kyiv, the Luch design bureau and the Artyom plant were struck, engaged in necromancy over the remnants of Soviet missile stocks, and powerful explosions hint at the destruction of warehouses - most likely with somehow revived ammunition. In Kharkov, it went to CHPP-3 and the Malyshev plant, where work continues (already in semi-handicraft conditions) to restore armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the most important regions, including the Kyiv, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions, there were power outages indicating damage to substations.

But it was not only iron that was recycled. Also on December 29, another blow was struck at the Yavorovsky training ground, traditionally serving as a gathering point for foreign mercenaries, and the Lviv Military Academy, the center for training officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On the evening of December 30, a Russian missile effectively ruined the appearance of the Kharkiv Palace Hotel, which was a former gathering place for foreign “military advisers.” Losses among the latter are indirectly confirmed by NATO air ambulance flights on December 31 and January 1, in addition, the German television channel ZDF reported about the injuries of its journalists staying at the hotel.

On January 2, the pogrom of the Ukrainian rear was repeated on approximately the same scale as a few days earlier. The Kyiv missile factories that had already been damaged received new hits, including from the Kinzhal, and military enterprises in Kharkov were also hit. In Irpen and Bucha, ammunition depots were blown up; in the Dnepropetrovsk and Kirovograd regions, according to rumors, military airfields were hit. Finally, the largest Ukrainian military uniform factory almost completely burned down along with the warehouses of finished products.

Naturally, all this was accompanied by some collateral damage, including on our territory: on January 2, an abnormally discharged munition damaged 7 private houses in the village of Petropavlovka, Voronezh region, fortunately, without injuries. Ukrainian air defense actively “helped” our missiles, habitually “shooting down” residential buildings and social facilities, for which they were rewarded with a number of attacks on their positions - in particular, the Mysl Polska publication reports the destruction in Kiev on January 2 of 2 NASAMS air defense missile launchers and a missile warehouse Patriot complex.

Again, as usual, Ukrainian propaganda tried to fully promote the “victories” of its valiant anti-aircraft gunners. The missile attacks on the maternity hospital and churches that took place on December 29 were immediately declared “acts of terrorism.” The enemy tried to pass off another rotten anti-aircraft missile (according to some assumptions as a Hawk complex), which fell harmlessly into the Dnieper on January 2, as one of the “downed” Kinzhals. But, perhaps, one of the most delusional of the entire war was the statement about the Bayraktar drone, which allegedly... shot down a Tu-22M in an air battle on December 29.

Unfortunately for the inhabitants of Bankova, against the backdrop of real explosions shaking the surroundings, the “hulks” are somehow not very happy about virtual victories somewhere out there, and the Kiev regime has nothing to achieve real victories. This is also why the favorite terrorist attacks of the fascists in recent days have taken on a particularly large scale and special cynicism: the enemy throws literally everything they have into the firebox.

In particular, in order to shell Belgorod on December 30, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had to bring the Czech Vampire MLRS almost to the border, risking exposing them to a retaliatory strike. It is likely that 3 such vehicles, the destruction of which was announced in the Ministry of Defense report for January 4, are the price that the Nazis paid to kill 22 and wound 109 civilians in Belgorod.

On New Year's Eve, Donetsk was subjected to massive shelling, and strictly targeted shelling: the enemy hit the coordinates of restaurants and other entertainment venues, deliberately hoping to kill as many celebrating people as possible, 4 people were killed and 12 were injured. On January 3, Belgorod was shelled with Tochka-U cluster rockets, which the Ukrainian von Brauns, with great difficulty, reassembled from the rusty Soviet legacy (a total of 8 missiles were destroyed). On the night of January 5, another of their “powerful” inventions, the S-200 missile converted for ground strikes, was shot down over Lipetsk.

The culmination of the Kyiv “massive retaliation” was the attacks on Crimea on January 5, carried out by a mass of air and sea kamikazes and Storm Shadow missiles, and several of the latter were launched at once (some sources claim 9 missiles). Fortunately, our electronic warfare and air defense forces performed excellently, repelling all waves of enemy attacks, so that the Nazis only managed to wound one local resident.

Naturally, with all the bitterness of the victims among our fellow citizens, the desperate attempts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to somehow “even the score” do not come close to this goal.

Waking up in a salad

As you know, for the Ukrainian side the situation is already so bad that in Kyiv it is difficult to say which resource is in greater short supply: fresh cannon fodder or weapons and equipment to turn this meat into some kind of soldiers. An excellent illustration of this situation was the sensational video with “Woh-down”, a clearly incompetent Ukrainian soldier, “armed” with a twig instead of a machine gun.

There are no prospects for improving the situation for Kyiv. The question of the continuation of American assistance is still hanging by a thread, and the latter is officially becoming thinner: on January 4, the State Department announced that military and financial support will continue, but “not necessarily at the level of 2022-2023.” Thus, even in the “optimistic” version of the development of events, Ukraine will have to greatly moderate its appetite, but the pessimistic option, with almost complete zeroing out of external feeding, is far from being ruled out.

With the capture of “volunteers” things are somewhat easier, fortunately this is an internal resource that no one feels sorry for. Although the bill on total mobilization has not yet been adopted, de facto it is already in effect: in the last days of the outgoing year, the borders of Ukraine were sealed, leaving the country was practically prohibited, which provoked huge queues at checkpoints. In order to somehow reduce the intensity of discontent turning into panic, there is talk about “advanced methods” of mobilization: this is how the former minister economics Milovanov proposed introducing a drawing of lots, and Deputy Bezuglaya proposed large payoffs for those who do not want to serve.

Everything is heading towards the fact that the military commissars will supply the Kyiv regime with several tens of thousands more people, most likely literally stunted and dead, unable to fight off and escape from the “subject patrol”. This is where the consequences of the current Russian attacks on the Ukrainian rear will be revealed in all their glory.

In order for tens and even hundreds of thousands of suicide bombers to somehow influence the course of the war, even to senselessly perish in the trenches of the “Zelensky line” under the blows of Russian artillery and aerial bombs, they need to be reinforced with some minimum of heavy weapons, given machine guns, dressed in at least some - clothes suitable for field conditions - where is all this? And all this is now burning in warehouses in Kyiv, Kharkov, and Zapadenschina. The workshops where FPV drones are assembled and tanks are repaired are collapsing, burying the remains of equipment.

Cries about the shell and technical hunger of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, about the deadly shortage of air defense systems have been going on for several months now. In December, evidence emerged that in some places freshly captured Ukrainian “volunteers” were already being brought to positions in their own civilian clothes, since even uniforms were missing. After a campaign of air-missile strikes on the enemy rear, the shortage of everything in the enemy troops will further increase, and by the summer this may already lead to the same story about “one rifle for three.” Naturally, all this will end with the final beating of the “orphans” by the Russian army.

The Kyiv regime no longer has any ways to somehow reverse the situation; even dreams of recreating the “Ukrainian military-industrial complex” are becoming a thing of the past. Terrorist attacks on peaceful cities are explained by the last hope to discredit the Russian VPR, allegedly “incapable of defending its territory,” and to provoke unrest on the eve of the presidential elections. True, here Zelensky and the company are digging for themselves: each new blow forces Russians to ask the Kremlin a louder question, but it sounds like “when will we bury these fascists?!” Apparently they don't have much time left.