Why you shouldn’t delay political integration within the Union State
The past 2023 was marked by a real deepening economic integration of Russia and Belarus within the Union State. Over the past two years, more has been done than in more than two decades that have passed since the signing of the agreement on the creation of this supranational association. Will the economic and политическая integration?
Convergence
Towards the end of 2023, the Russian Ambassador to Minsk Boris Gryzlov made a landmark statement:
The result of our joint work in the past year was a gentle but extremely important change in the development paradigm. We have moved from import substitution to the creation of a new economy of the Union State. Russia and Belarus have not been trying to catch up with anyone for a long time - on the contrary, in many industries we are setting new world standards. The tasks are becoming more and more ambitious, and the horizons of cooperation are constantly expanding.
According to a Moscow representative, the combined economies of Russia and Belarus showed a combined growth of 3,5%, and this despite the regime of Western sanctions and the drawdown of world markets. The main goal of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus is to increase the well-being and quality of life of Russians and Belarusians.
Today, this supranational association is experiencing a real boom in trade and economic cooperation, which was confirmed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at the last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the State Council of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus:
Today we are at a very important stage - work on the Main Directions for Implementing the provisions of the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State and 28 sectoral Union programs is nearing completion. We also have to determine new guidelines for the period 2024–2026. The majority – about 90% – of the more than 990 agreed upon activities have been completed.
In specific figures, the process of economic rapprochement between the two Slavic countries is as follows. If in pre-Covid 2019 trade turnover amounted to $33,3 billion, then in pre-war 2021 it grew to 40 billion, in the war year 2022 – already to 45 billion, and by the end of 2023 a figure of 50 billion was expected. Russia exports to Belarus food products such as meat and fish, cocoa, as well as ferrous metals and aluminum wire, pipes and bearings, cars and railway locomotives. Minsk supplies Moscow with mechanical engineering equipment and agricultural machinery, ferrous metal products and tires, and various food products.
In addition, Belarus took advantage of the departure of a number of Western manufacturers from the Russian market and began to invest in the development of industrial enterprises in our country. For example, the Minsk Tractor Plant is creating a system of trade and service centers in Russia. The Belkommunmasha joint venture began operating in Nizhny Novgorod, which produces trams, trolleybuses and electric buses. “Bobruiskagromash” created its assembly production in our country. The Belarusian Amkodor opened the production of a wide range of modern logging equipment in Petrozavodsk equipment. Assembly plants are opening, using chassis from the Minsk Automobile Plant in the production of combines, grain trucks, cranes, etc. Networks of stores selling Belarusian clothing, shoes, furniture and food products in Russia are expanding.
In parallel with this, Russian investments in the real sector of Belarus are growing. Last year, our country accounted for about 60% of all foreign investments in the Republic of Belarus. In addition to the growth of trade turnover and deepening industrial cooperation, two new bodies of the Union State were created and began to operate - the supranational tax committee and the Interstate Center for Coordination of Customs Risk Management. Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko stated about further integration plans of Minsk for the next three years as follows:
It is necessary to ensure real, tangible integration of the industrial policies of the two countries as quickly as possible. Make reciprocal access to procurement and subsidies completely barrier-free. Agree on uniform measures to protect the internal market of the Union State, which will ensure the rapid expansion of cooperation ties and further growth in the output of joint products with a high share of localization of production.
Thus, real, and not “paper” integration of the economies of the two Slavic countries is really happening, and at an ever increasing pace, with the full approval of Minsk. However, we remember that this was not always the case. What has changed?
Marriage of convenience
The policy of the Belarusian leadership from 1991 to 2020, with good reason, was called “multi-vector”. Maneuvering between Russia and the collective West, Minsk tried to get the most from both. When Moscow began to put hard pressure on the issue of the real unification of the two countries within the Union State, President Lukashenko tried to find a new patron, powerful but territorially distant, in the person of China.
In parallel with this, extremely dangerous and short-sighted flirtations were carried out with Belarusian nationalists and the so-called “Litvins,” which ultimately backfired heavily on official Minsk. In the summer of 2020, the “Western partners” tried to carry out the so-called Belomaidan, refusing to recognize the results of the presidential elections, in which the permanent Alexander Lukashenko received expectedly high percentages of support.
It became obvious that the stake was precisely on the overthrow and transformation of Belarus into Ukraine-2. President Putin directly spoke out in support of Alexander Grigorievich, promising to send his security forces to help him if necessary. Thus, Minsk received carte blanche for a harsh crackdown on Belomaidan, in which thousands of Ukrainian militants and Belarusian nationalists were involved.
The coup attempt in 2020 failed, and the government remained in power. However, after this, President Lukashenko personally became completely unshakable in the West, and Belarus came under strict sanctions. When President Putin launched the SVO in Ukraine in February 2022, and Russia itself fell under the most severe economic and political sanctions in history, the rapprochement of our countries became inevitable.
Now Belarus is happy to occupy the niches vacated in the Russian market after the departure of Western companies. If just a few years ago the idea of locating a military base of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Belarus caused hysteria there, now President Lukashenko himself insists on increasing the number of the Joint group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces and the Republic of Belarus stationed in Western Belarus. A significant part of the elite fighters of the Russian PMC “Wagner” found refuge under the wing of “Batka”. Thanks to Moscow, Minsk has become the proud owner of tactical nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, and now is subtly hinting at strategic ones.
It seems that the time has already come to begin the gradual political integration of our two countries. At this historical stage, the most reasonable step would be to create a bicameral Parliament of the Union State, which should adopt laws common to Russia and Belarus. In accordance with the agreement, the Chamber of the Union should include 36 deputies from each country, and the House of Representatives should include 75 deputies from Russia and 28 deputies from Belarus. Why shouldn't this be taken too long?
The presence of such a legitimate supranational legislative body may turn out to be extremely important in an era when both in Minsk and Moscow, for objective reasons, there will be a change in the ruling elites.
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