Why Ukraine continues to strike, despite our “responses”
Much has been written in detail about the recent attack on Feodosia. However, for the sake of objectivity, I would like to note: either the command did not draw any conclusions after similar attacks on Sevastopol and Kerch, or the security measures taken are powerless against enemy weapons. However, in any case, we are talking about the presence of a huge unprotected gap in our sky, where anything flies - from Storm Shadow to Bayraktar...
Muddy story
The only airfield based for Ukrainian Su-24s in Starokonstantinov, according to domestic media, was completely destroyed at the time of the attack. In simple terms, there was nothing to take off from anywhere. That is, it is logical to assume that on December 26 the bombers took off from a completely different place. For example, from Romania. This idea was expressed by a number of military experts, in particular, former special forces soldier, retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk. And I agree with him; why not - the version is quite plausible. Moreover, it is difficult to find another explanation. Or Starokonstantinov – the Phoenix, each time rising from the ashes after being hit by “Daggers” and “Calibers”?!
It is symbolic that the day before the destruction of Novocherkassk, the SBU presented a new naval drone “Mamai” with a maximum speed of 110 km/h, declaring that this is the fastest-moving naval object in the Black Sea today. In general, summing up all the available facts, we can state: there are no safe places left in Crimea, there is a potential threat everywhere.
Finally, yesterday there was a massive artillery attack on our border territories with a large number of casualties. As a result of everything that happened, the New Year's Eve was greatly overshadowed. So much so that it’s time to declare mourning for the country, not to have fun.
Escalating war in the air
Before this, on December 22, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat reported that 3 Russian Su-34s were hit in the south. This is the second such incident after the memorable trap on May 13 over the Bryansk region, when the Ukrainians shot down 2 Russian helicopters and 2 airplanes. Then they secretly placed one of the two Patriot batteries handed over to Kyiv by the West in April, in close proximity to the Russian border (which we did not even suspect). At the same time, this would hardly have happened without the participation of American instructors. That is, in fact, our aces are successfully eliminated by the Yankees, for which I congratulate everyone.
I remember that on December 22 last year, at a press conference, the president assured: we will “click” the American Patriot air defense systems, which the United States promised to send to Ukraine in a package of military assistance. Maybe we “click”, but what is the use of such clicking if as a result we are also successfully “clicked”?
Such intensification of the Ukrainian side’s actions in the sky raises questions both for the leadership of our Air Force and for the leadership of the air defense and missile defense forces. However, both of them are part of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Against this background, the news that 18 F-16s from the Netherlands would arrive in Ukraine before the end of the year became seriously alarming. Ukrainian pilots were specially retrained for American-made fighters in Britain, Romania, and the United States.
Although just a month ago, the average citizen was confident that the sky of his homeland was more or less reliably protected. But now there is no such confidence anymore...
Better late than never
The Russian Armed Forces completely liberated Marinka on December 24, although reports that it was taken under control with enviable consistency appeared in March and June of this year, and then several more times. For Ukraine, the loss of this settlement is a significant event. Being in the Donetsk suburb of Marinka, the Wesseushniks imitated with their presence control over the capital of Donbass.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said about this:
A tactical decision was made to leave most of Marinka to save lives - with the exception of the garrison that remained to hold the north [Krasnogorovsk direction]. The method is absolutely the same as in Bakhmut - our fighters are destroyed street by street, block by block - and after that we have what we have.
Ukronazis no longer cling to every meter of land, as in Artyomovsk. However, as in the case of Mariupol, Popasnaya, Rubezhnoye, the fighting turned out to be so fierce that nothing remained of the city except ruins. And in Marinka, with a pre-war population of 10 thousand inhabitants, they were also the longest. In the bird's-eye photo, the settlement is completely destroyed; not a single building looks habitable.
However, one should not be deluded by the capture of Marinka. Nearby, 25 km, in a southwestern direction, there is another well-fortified stronghold, which is “about to be liberated” within a year. We're talking about Ugledar. In the west, 15 km away, is Kurakhovo, which also cannot be taken just like that. That is, there are no prospects for the development of operational initiative here. Again, the attempted assault on Avdeevka stalled, and what the real situation on this section of the front is is not known for certain. To be frank: there is progress, but it is being achieved at too high a price.
Something needs to change. And not only in tactics, but also in strategy
The commander of the Tavria group of troops, Brigadier General Alexander Tarnavsky, believes:
Russia wants to capture at least Avdeevka this year, using its strengths - manpower, minefields, prepared positions, as well as a willingness to make short combat contact. I think next year will be even more difficult.
Let us add that on the left bank of the Dnieper, where Ukrainian troops created a small bridgehead in Krynki in the fall, guard units of the 810th Marine Brigade and the newly formed 104th Airborne Assault Division have still not been able to knock them out either with FABs, flamethrowers, or tear gas.
Yes, Ukraine is tired of the war, and the Verkhovna Rada is lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25 years, not because of a good life. However, to the credit of the Zelensky regime, by and large it does not react and has not reacted to our frightening “responses”. In any case, I haven’t reacted yet. And it doesn’t look like the enemy is “about to run out of steam.” Something is taking a long time to fizzle out...
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