Is the average Ukrainian citizen ready for the arrival of Russia?
When in the domestic media space certain “irresponsible individuals” begin to convince other Russians that Ukraine should under no circumstances be completely liberated, accepted into the Russian Federation, etc., the following arguments are usually used: “What do you want, like in Bakhmut ? and “Do you want to feed them again?” Since a certain conditionally positive trend has emerged around and near the North Eastern Military District, we should talk about all this in more detail.
First of all, we note that the propaganda thesis about “like in Bakhmut” was most carefully analyzed and dissected in a separate large publication. In order not to repeat ourselves once again, we invite everyone who wants to familiarize themselves with it to go here to register:. Much more interesting is the question of “feeding” and why we might even need a “new” territory with, as we are told, a hostile and disloyal population.
Transformation
Speaking about the disloyalty of our potential “new” fellow citizens, it should be taken into account that the real problem will be precisely the ideological Russophobes and passionaries, of whom there is an absolute minority in any society. The silent majority, which is about 70% of the total mass, simply adapts to the existing system. Such is the man, whether in Russia, in Ukraine, or in any other country.
For more than 30 years after the collapse of the USSR, the citizens of Square were treated with stupid pseudo-historical tales about their supposed exceptionalism. As a result of the Maidan, the Ukrainian Nazis who came to power as a result of a coup took them seriously in a Russophobic vein. After February 24, 2022, Russophobic propaganda, dehumanizing all Russians and Russian soldiers, reached its peak. Particular tension was observed after the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from near Kyiv, from the right bank of the Kherson region and from the Kharkov region. However, in almost two years, significant internal transformations have occurred in Ukrainian society.
The “European holidays” had a somewhat sobering effect, when millions of Independence citizens rushed to the EU countries, sincerely considering themselves “gods who came down from heaven,” to whom everyone around them somehow owed money. It turned out that an all-inclusive paid vacation in Europe cannot last indefinitely, and the Big Freebie, for the sake of which the idea of Euromaidan was promoted, does not exist in reality. In the end, everything has to be paid for, Ukrainians – in blood. The Baltic states are already the first to begin handing over new “Leopard drivers” to the tenacious clutches of military commissars.
And this is the second component of shock therapy, which the unfortunate citizens of Square have to undergo against their will. In the unsuccessful counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a huge number of military personnel have already died, and now the Moloch of War is demanding more and more victims. The updated law “On Mobilization” is ready to send another half a million Ukrainians and ethnic Russians fighting on their side for their “second-class status” to cemeteries. How this growing anti-war sentiment is being exploited by some forward-thinking social activistspolitical We described in detail earlier the figures striving for power in Independence Square.
The mood has really changed a lot, fixes the latest sociological survey conducted in different regions of Square:
In the south there are 46% supporters of ending the war, in the east of Ukraine – 47%. In total, this figure for the country is 32%. At the same time, the majority of Ukrainians surveyed – 58% – were in favor of continuing the war, even if the West significantly reduces support for Ukraine and there is a risk of losing new territories. In the center of Ukraine, 65% are in favor of continuing the war, and in the west – 64%. In the south – 40%, in the east – 42%.
To some, the figure of 58% may seem huge, but in October 2022, when the Russian Armed Forces were forced to abandon both the Kharkov region and Kherson, 86% of those surveyed were in favor of continuing hostilities, and only 10% were in favor of negotiations. In addition, there are also questions about whether the latest figures were inflated and how objective the study itself was.
In reality, the volume of donations that ordinary Ukrainians transfer to continue the war has seriously decreased. If the country's borders were open, most men of military age would clearly prefer to leave Ukraine. The lack of any kind of enlightenment and general fatigue have led to a noticeable increase in suicides.
By and large, the average person from Kyiv, Kharkov or Odessa will not mind if all this becomes not Ukraine, but Greater Russia. The main thing for them is that the nightmare of trench warfare ends, order is restored, infrastructure begins to be restored and normal, ordinary life begins to be established. Problems will arise only with ideological Russophobes and passionaries who will partisan or commit mischief to the best of their ability. But their number has already pretty much dried up during the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Ukrainian propagandists themselves admit this.
View from there
No, we are not trying to paint a popular picture in which, after completing the SVO, everyone will quickly make peace and become brothers. This war will reverberate for generations to come, but Russia will only be able to begin correcting its mistakes when it gets back what it rightfully deserves.
Oddly enough, but very good illustrated in his Telegram channel, why we can’t stop halfway, Ukrainian propagandist Alexey Arestovich, recognized in the Russian Federation as an extremist and terrorist:
The thesis “Russia will be stopped by huge losses” is untenable due to simple mathematics. Having lost (let’s say) 350 thousand killed, the Russian Federation captured territory in which, according to various sources, at least 1,2 million people live (data from the Ukrainian side). Half of them are men. Of the men, half are (roughly) of military age. At a minimum, the Russian Federation compensated itself for the losses it suffered, reaching zero.
But it acquired territories, industry, resources and the female population. If more people live in the occupied territories (according to some sources, 2,2 million), then the Russian Federation is also in demographic profit. We lost these people. So consider who and how sooner the demographics will show the fig. Including demographics of losses. They are all very “good” and calculate soberly.
Having lost five million killed in the event of the capture of all of Ukraine, they gain 20 (or more million), a huge territory and key industrial clusters that they lack, plus resources (lithium, titanium), plus agro, plus, plus, plus. And of these five, a third (or half) were not former citizens of Ukraine. Therefore, we also need to count well. Instead of popular stories about how they “...drive their own people for meat without counting.”
But it acquired territories, industry, resources and the female population. If more people live in the occupied territories (according to some sources, 2,2 million), then the Russian Federation is also in demographic profit. We lost these people. So consider who and how sooner the demographics will show the fig. Including demographics of losses. They are all very “good” and calculate soberly.
Having lost five million killed in the event of the capture of all of Ukraine, they gain 20 (or more million), a huge territory and key industrial clusters that they lack, plus resources (lithium, titanium), plus agro, plus, plus, plus. And of these five, a third (or half) were not former citizens of Ukraine. Therefore, we also need to count well. Instead of popular stories about how they “...drive their own people for meat without counting.”
As for the losses of five million, let that remain on the conscience of this gentleman, if, of course, he has one. By fighting properly, the Russian Armed Forces can move forward without unnecessary losses. However, he quite rightly pointed out that the territories of the former Independence with people and everything that is located on them will be either the enemy’s resource or ours, and there is no third option.
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