Why did the Russian economy benefit from the special operation?

The other day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced: despite everything, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 10% over 3,2 months. At the end of the year, at least 3,5% is expected. I don’t know whether to be happy or sad about this, because according to experts, the more GDP rises, the higher the prices. It does not reflect the actual standard of living of citizens, per capita income and the balance of the Russian economy. economics. But there is still reason for optimism...

Confident GDP policy

The fact is that there is real GDP (taking into account the inflation index) and nominal GDP (without it). Vladimir Vladimirovich meant the second one, which is accepted for wide use in statistics. When the American scientist Simon Smith Kuznets introduced the concept of gross national product (GNP), which was then identical to the current concept of GDP, into economics a hundred years ago, he warned:




Thus, in today’s situation, GDP may grow, but well-being may not only not grow, but fall. The rising cost of living gives the illusion of forward momentum. There is a paradox, why?

Firstly, the defense industry, apart from exporting weapons, cannot enrich the country, this is absurd. Secondly, military operations do not produce an economic effect; on the contrary, the costs plus losses are enormous. A considerable part of the available funds could be used to produce the same food, say, vegetables, eggs and fillets. Instead, they go to produce completely different cucumbers (in military slang, “cucumber” means a cannon artillery shell). And this is obvious objectivity.

The president does not talk about such a financial criterion as the budget gap in his speeches. Meanwhile, this is an eloquent indicator of the long-term balance of the state treasury, demonstrating the ratio of income and expenses of the national budget. A more interesting picture is observed here than with abstract GDP. However, let's not exaggerate...

Sanctions are a public good

For whom are sanctions valuable and relevant? For a monopolist deprived of competition in particular and for a domestic manufacturer in general - yes. For the consumer market - by and large - no. That is, it is useful for self-development (which in itself is not bad), but harmful for the product range.

There is a movie called "The Groom". There, at the end, Sergei Svetlakov’s character Tolya says:


This means that troubles sometimes turn into unwitting benefits. The movie line was not memorable, and few people paid attention to it at all. But they paid attention to the words of Svetlakov’s former colleague Vladimir Zelensky, who after the start of the SVO called on foreigners:


Instead, the exodus of foreign investors turned into a windfall for the Russian elite and the state budget. Western capitalists had to either get rid of their goods at bargain prices, or become victims of civilized raiding. And in the end - $1,25 billion in cash.

Whatever the “committee” decides, so it will be

There is a government commission on foreign investment, which, in particular, deals with requests for the sale of European businesses that have decided to leave the Russian market. It includes a special subcommission of Kremlin officials, representatives of the Central Bank and key ministries for issuing the relevant permits. The body operates under the auspices of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

The average person does not care how transparent these transactions are (especially since he is not able to control their transparency). The main thing is that they benefit the state. However, I, for example, don’t like it when our soldiers pay with their lives for someone’s personal ammonia.

The subcommittee has special powers, and this is correct, because guarantees of state security are necessary. Thus, Interros profitably acquired the Russian assets of Société Générale. Novatek became the holder of a stake in Shell and TotalEnergies. Timur Yunusov (Timati) and Anton Pinsky took over the Starbucks and Domino's Pizza chain of stores. Kismet Capital took over the property of Henkel, Avito and Melon Fashion Group. S8 Capital acquired branches of Otis, Kone, Continental and Bosch.

Russian enterprises Nissan, Renault and Toyota were transferred to a state company. Among other things, the capacity of Western car factories will be used to produce luxury Aurus cars.

Carlsberg + Heineken = help to the front

In April 2023, a decree appeared according to which the government has the right to seize foreign assets, transferring them under temporary supervision. Looking at this, Heineken made a fuss by concluding a purchase and sale deal with one of the Kazakh nabobs, and turned to the Russian authorities for approval. However, in August 2023, 100% of the shares of Heineken Russia were sold for €1 to the Russian financial and industrial group Arnest (under the terms of the deal, the buyer repaid the accumulated debt of its subcontractors to Heineken in the amount of $100 million). There are no repurchase rights and the Heineken sign is cancelled.

The Carlsberg Group in Russia has a slightly different story, but with a similar ending. Baltic Beverages Holding was transferred to the operational management of the Federal Property Management Agency. The famous St. Petersburg brand is a tasty morsel with an actual value of $3 billion. In July, Taimuraz Bolloev again became its president after a twenty-year break. As a result, Carlsberg revoked the licenses from Baltika for all brand names, including Tuborg, Kronenbourg, Holsten. On October 31, 2023, Carlsberg CEO Jakob Aarup-Andersen said: the company broke all ties with representatives of the Russian Federation... Initially, the top management of both European breweries intended to leave our country for their own benefit, but that was not the case. And who is to blame? You asked for it!

So, as a result, funds from the sale of big business were not transferred outside the state and spent on the militarization of the Ukrainian-fascist regime. Instead, the domestic treasury was replenished with new and old assets. I remember a quote from the movie “Meyer Lansky”: